AI Model:

Bilal Coulibaly▲

WAS · SF

PPG

11.0

RPG

4.4

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

15.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.4

11.0

15.4

RPG+1.0

4.4

5.4

APG+1.0

2.6

3.6

SPG-0.6

1.4

0.8

BPG-0.3

0.9

0.6

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

ATL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs ATL: 10 pts

TOR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs TOR: 14 pts

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 23 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 6 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 17 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 5 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 10 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 29 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 12 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 21 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

63%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

60%

UNDER 2

57%

PRA

UNDER 17

52%

P+R

OVER 15.5

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.5

11.6

RPG

3.2

4.6

APG

2.5

3.1

vs OKC (H2H)4 games

PPG

10.5

RPG

5.8

APG

2.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Giannis Antetokounmpo	2	16	56%	+14.0%	low
Paolo Banchero	4	15	46%	+0.1%	medium
Anthony Edwards	2	13	58%	+8.4%	low
Tyrese Maxey	3	13	25%

Coulibaly’s expanded role keeps his floor elevated, but efficiency risk favors selective overs

Bilal Coulibaly is trending up, with his last 5 at 15.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 3.6 APG versus season marks of 11.0, 4.4, and 2.6. The absences of Cam Whitmore and Kyshawn George on his team should help stabilize his minutes and usage, and his recent 30.6 MPG is above his 26.7 season average. The Thunder matchup is not especially friendly for perimeter production, and his season and split data still point to a more modest baseline than his recent scoring surge. Because his recent run is well above season norms, regression risk is real even with the added opportunity.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.4(↑ from 11.0)

RPG

5.4(↑ from 4.4)

APG

3.6(↑ from 2.6)

Stocks

1.5(↓ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. Washington’s opponent defense data shows a 107.49 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -1.801 scoring suppression, which slightly dampens scoring upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	21	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	4	✓
Bilal Coulibaly▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	3	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	1	✓
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	30%	2	✓
Bilal Coulibaly▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	3	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Bilal Coulibaly▼	PRA	17	UNDER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	29	✗
Bilal Coulibaly▼	P+R	15.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	25	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS12.5OVER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

PRA20.5OVER7%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed -0.069▼

REB4.5UNDER23%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST2.5OVER10%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.101; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+R18UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A16.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

BLK0.5OVER21%gbt_blocksDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

3PM1.5UNDER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Bilal Coulibaly

Rebounds OVER 4.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest value side because his season mean is 4.43 RPG, his last 5 is 4.7 RPG, and his home mean is 4.63 RPG. The value-prop data also shows a positive edge on the over at 4.5, making it stronger than the points and assist angles.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	1	4	2	100%	100%
Aaron Wiggins	2	2	0	0%	0%
Cason Wallace	1	2	0	0%	0%
Isaiah Hartenstein	1	1	0	0%	0%
Ajay Mitchell	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 11.561%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.04 PPG and his home mean is 11.71, so 11.5 is right at the edge despite the hot last 5. The recent spike to 15.4 PPG is above season level, which raises regression risk.

reboundsOVER 4.558%MEDIUM

He averages 4.43 RPG on the season and 4.7 RPG over the last 5, with 4.63 RPG at home. Value data also shows a positive edge on rebounds over 4.5.

assistsOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

His season mean is 2.64 APG and last 5 is 3.6 APG, with 2.75 APG at home. The recent uptick in playmaking supports a small lean over, though variance is higher here.

threesUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 1.13 made threes per game on the season, below 1.5, and his home mean is only 1.04. Recent 1.9 over the last 5 is a clear jump, but that is difficult to sustain.

stealsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 steals per game season-long, but the 1.5 line is above his mean and his last 5 is only 0.8. With that gap, the under is the safer side.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 blocks per game and 0.6 over the last 5, both clearing the 0.5 line. The volatility is manageable because his season baseline is already above the threshold.

stocksUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

His combined stocks are 2.28 on the season, but the 2.5 line sits above that baseline and his last 5 stocks are only 1.4. This is a high-variance category, so the under is preferred.

turnoversUNDER 257%MEDIUM

He is at 1.4 turnovers per game in both the last 5 and the season context provided. That keeps him below a projected 2.0 line, even with added usage from teammate absences.

praUNDER 1752%MEDIUM

His season baseline would project near 18.1 PRA, but the combo prop carries extra variance and over-bias caution applies. The recent 5-game surge is not enough to make the over a strong play at a higher combo line.

prOVER 15.555%MEDIUM

His season averages of 11.0 points and 4.4 rebounds sum to 15.4 PR, and his recent form is higher than that. This is slightly playable over, but combo volatility keeps confidence moderate.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS