AI Model:

Luguentz Dort▼

OKC · SF

PPG

8.5

RPG

3.8

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

5.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.9

8.5

5.6

RPG-0.4

3.8

3.4

APG-0.7

1.3

0.6

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

DET

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs DET: 3 pts

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 8 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 5 pts

CHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHI: 4 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 16 pts

GSW

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs GSW: 8 pts

DEN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs DEN: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 3 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 5 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5STAKE

68%

REB

OVER 3.5STAKE

56%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

63%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

STL

UNDER 1.5

70%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

67%

UNDER 2

72%

P+R

UNDER 13.5STAKE

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.2

7.5

RPG

3.5

3.6

APG

1.3

1.5

vs WAS (H2H)10 games

PPG

12.4

RPG

3.8

APG

1.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	2	21	50%	+11.5%	low
Jamal Murray	3	19	45%	+4.4%	medium
Brandon Ingram	2	18	31%	-10.7%	low
Anthony Edwards	3	17	71%

Dort’s scoring remains muted, but the matchup and available minutes keep his low-end props alive

Luguentz Dort is in a clear downtrend, with his last 5 scoring at 5.6 PPG versus 8.5 PPG for the season and 7.8 PPG over the last 20. His minutes have also dipped slightly to 26.7 in the last 10 from 27.8 on the season, which limits upside on a player already carrying modest usage. The matchup is workable against a Washington defense with a 123.94 defensive rating, but his recent form still points more toward a lower-scoring outcome than a breakout. Assist and rebound numbers remain near his season baseline, while threes are not strong enough to justify an over at the current line.

Stat Trends

PPG

5.6(↓ from 8.5)

RPG

3.4(↓ from 3.8)

APG

0.6(↓ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

Washington owns a 123.94 defensive rating and a pace of 100, which creates a usable environment for raw production. Dort does have a 10-game history of 12.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 1.6 APG against this opponent, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed defender notes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Luguentz Dort▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	90%
Luguentz Dort▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Luguentz Dort▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Luguentz Dort▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Luguentz Dort▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	90%
Luguentz Dort▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	90%
Luguentz Dort▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	80%
Luguentz Dort▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	90%
Luguentz Dort▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	80%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS7.5OVER4%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.040▼

P+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

PRA10.5OVER21%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x12/2060%+5.9% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB2.5OVER29%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)13/2065%+14.3% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.348▼

3PM1.5UNDER35%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x12/2060%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted -0.189▼

R+A4.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

P+R11.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Luguentz Dort

Points UNDER 9.5HIGH

His season scoring average is 8.5 and his last 5 are only 5.6, so 9.5 sits above his current production profile. The recent trend is down, and while the opponent environment is decent, Dort’s role and recent output still point to an under more often than not.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Khris Middleton	1	3	2	50%	50%
Kyshawn George	1	2	3	100%	150%
CJ McCollum	1	2	3	100%	150%
Bilal Coulibaly	1	1	3	100%	150%
Bub Carrington	1	0	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 9.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 8.5 PPG and the last 5 are only 5.6, so 9.5 is above both recent and seasonal production. The recent trend is down, and the value data also shows the best side on points is OVER at much lower lines, not this number.

reboundsOVER 3.556%MEDIUM

He averages 3.8 RPG on the season and 3.9 over the last 10, which sits just above this line. The edge is not huge and variance is moderate, so confidence stays limited.

assistsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

Dort averages only 1.3 APG for the season and 0.6 over the last 5, with just 1.1 over the last 10. A 1.5 line asks for more playmaking than his current role has supported.

threesUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.84 made threes per game, but the prop market data shows the under side is the preferred play at 1.5 in the available books. His recent 1.4 made threes per game and downtrend make the under reasonable.

stealsUNDER 1.570%HIGH

His season average is 0.8 steals and the last 10 are 0.6, well below 1.5. Even with defensive activity, this line is far above his usual output.

blocksUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks per game on the season and 0.4 over the last 5. That makes 0.5 slightly above his baseline, though not by a massive margin.

stocksUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.24 and recent form is 0.8, so 1.5 is a bit high for his current production. The last 10 and last 5 both point to modest defensive counting stats.

turnoversUNDER 272%HIGH

He averages just 0.9 turnovers on the season and 0.8 over the last 10. That is comfortably below a 2.0 line.

prUNDER 13.562%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 12.3 combined, and his recent form is lower on scoring. Combo props carry more variance, and this line is slightly above his normal output.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS