AI Model:

Tre Johnson▲

WAS · SG

PPG

12.2

RPG

2.8

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

9.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.0

12.2

9.2

RPG-0.4

2.8

2.4

APG-0.4

2.0

1.6

SPG-0.6

0.6

0.0

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 5 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 9 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 15 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 20 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 17 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 3 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 7 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs DET: 12 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5STAKE

78%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

70%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

74%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

STL

UNDER 0.5

66%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

68%

UNDER 2

57%

PRA

UNDER 20.5STAKE

63%

P+A

UNDER 19.5STAKE

64%

P+R

UNDER 20.5STAKE

67%

UNDER 0.5

80%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.4

12.7

RPG

3.0

2.3

APG

1.8

2.0

vs OKC (H2H)1 games

PPG

10.0

RPG

3.0

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kris Dunn	2	13	0%	-41.7%	low
Kon Knueppel	4	12	30%	-21.7%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	11	67%	+25.0%	medium
Jalen Pickett	2	9	0%

Tre Johnson’s usage bump is real, but the recent scoring dip keeps his ceiling in check

Tre Johnson is sitting at 12.2 PPG on the season and has played 23.8 MPG, but his last 5 games have fallen to 9.2 PPG while minutes have stayed steady at 23.6. The absences of Cam Whitmore and Kyshawn George should help stabilize his role, though his recent shot production and 1.8 turnovers over the last 5 suggest a modest fantasy floor rather than a big ceiling. This matchup also doesn’t scream pace boost, and the Thunder’s defensive profile plus Washington’s own scoring environment point toward a controlled projection rather than a breakout. With the injury tag and recent regression, the safer angle is to lean under on his main scoring and combo markets.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.2(↓ from 12.2)

RPG

2.4(↓ from 2.8)

APG

1.6(↓ from 2.0)

3PM

2.0(→ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Key defender matchup data is limited, and there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. The opponent profile shows a 107.49 defensive rating, pace of 100, and -1.801 scoring suppression, which points more toward a neutral-to-slightly difficult scoring environment than a clear boost.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Tre Johnson▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	80%
Tre Johnson▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	50%
Tre Johnson▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	90%
Tre Johnson▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Tre Johnson▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	70%
Tre Johnson▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	70%
Tre Johnson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	90%
Tre Johnson▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%
Tre Johnson▼	PRA	20.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Tre Johnson▼	P+A	19.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	90%
Tre Johnson▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	80%
Tre Johnson▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5UNDER28%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 9x5/2025%+21.3% edgeLine moved -1.0; Value edge shifted -0.081; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

PRA18.5UNDER7%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x5/2025%+22.4% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A12.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R14UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

REB3.5UNDER1%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.054; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

AST2.5OVER3%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x4/2020%Value edge changed -0.062; Odds moved materially; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x8/2040%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

3PM1.5OVER6%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.475▼

Featured Pick

Tre Johnson

Points UNDER 16.5HIGH

This line is notably above both his season scoring average of 12.2 PPG and his last 5 average of 9.2 PPG. The questionable injury status and recent dip in production make the under the cleanest angle, especially with no strong matchup data suggesting a scoring ceiling.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ajay Mitchell	1	4	4	100%	100%
Isaiah Joe	1	2	4	33%	50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	1	1	8	100%	117%
Luguentz Dort	1	1	0	0%	0%
Cason Wallace	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 16.578%HIGH

His season mean is 12.2 PPG and the last 5 have dropped to 9.2, well below this line. The recent sample and questionable injury status make 16.5 a difficult number to clear.

reboundsUNDER 3.570%HIGH

He averages 2.8 RPG on the season and 2.4 over the last 5, both below 3.5. The recent rebound profile has been inconsistent despite one 5-rebound game.

assistsUNDER 2.574%HIGH

His season mean is 2.0 APG and last 10 is 1.7 APG, so this line sits above his typical output. Recent games also show only 1.6 APG over the last 5.

threesUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

The value data points to the UNDER at 1.5 with a 6.1% edge, and the market is pricing the over heavily. Even with 1.95 made threes per game seasonally, the recent shot volume has been less stable.

stealsUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.6 SPG on the season and 0.0 over the last 5, so the over is not strongly supported. Defensive stats have been limited recently.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He is only at 0.3 BPG on the season and 0.2 over the last 5, which is below a 0.5 line. This is a low-volume block profile.

stocksUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.87 and recent is 0.2, both well below 1.5. The combo of steals and blocks has not been strong lately.

turnoversUNDER 257%MEDIUM

He has 1.8 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 1.9 over the last 10, so a 2.0 line is near his range. The volume is close, but season-long output still trends slightly below.

praUNDER 20.563%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 17.98 using the provided averages, and recent form is weaker across points, rebounds, and assists. Combo props are higher-variance, so the under is the safer side.

paUNDER 19.564%MEDIUM

He averages 12.2 points and 2.0 assists on the season, which puts his typical P+A below this number. Recent scoring and assist production both sit under season levels.

prUNDER 20.567%MEDIUM

Points plus rebounds comes out to 15.0 using season averages, and his last 5 have been even lighter. This line requires a clear scoring spike that has not shown up recently.

double_doubleUNDER 0.580%HIGH

His season averages do not support double-double potential, with neither points nor rebounds near double digits together. Recent game logs also do not show a realistic path to one.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Tre Johnson’s usage bump is real, but the recent scoring dip keeps his ceiling in check

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 16.5 PTS