AI Model:

Ace Bailey▲

UTA · PF

PPG

12.6

RPG

4.0

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

17.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.0

12.6

17.6

RPG+0.4

4.0

4.4

APG+0.7

1.7

2.4

SPG+0.5

0.9

1.4

BPG+0.1

0.5

0.6

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

NOP

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs NOP: 23 pts

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 13 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 32 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 9 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 21 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 8 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 17 pts

MIL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIL: 33 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5STAKE

58%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

64%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

67%

3PM

OVER 2.5STAKE

54%

STL

UNDER 1.5

69%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

OVER 2

55%

PRA

UNDER 20.5STAKE

60%

P+A

UNDER 17.5STAKE

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.5

14.2

RPG

5.4

4.9

APG

2.0

1.8

vs PHI (H2H)1 games

PPG

12.0

RPG

2.0

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	13	67%	+11.7%	medium
Moses Moody	2	12	69%	+9.9%	low
Rui Hachimura	3	11	56%	+0.5%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	10	108%

Expanded role, but the market is still pricing in a hot streak

Ace Bailey’s season line sits at 12.6 PPG, but his last 5 have jumped to 17.6 PPG and his last 10 to 18.6 PPG, showing clear upward form. Utah’s injuries create more usage and minutes on the wing, yet his scoring has also been volatile, with recent logs ranging from 8 to 33 points and a season standard deviation of 7.07 on points. He gets a home boost at 18.5 PPG in 8 home games, but the current points market is higher than his season norm, so the best angle is to lean under on inflated numbers while staying cautious on combo props.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.6(↑ from 12.6)

RPG

4.4(→ from 4.0)

APG

2.4(↑ from 1.7)

Stocks

2.0(↑ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

Philadelphia is missing Joel Embiid and Paul George, but no specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders. Utah’s opponent defense shows a 116.06 defensive rating and 100 pace, which supports more opportunities, but the current prop markets are already pricing in some of that context.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ace Bailey▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	25	✗
Ace Bailey▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	7	✗
Ace Bailey▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	4	✗
Ace Bailey▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✓
Ace Bailey▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	0	✓
Ace Bailey▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%	5	✓
Ace Bailey▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	5	✓
Ace Bailey▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✗
Ace Bailey▼	PRA	20.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	36	✗
Ace Bailey▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	29	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS17.5OVER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%▼

3PM2.5OVER2%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/1942%▼

REB5.5UNDER18%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)9/1947%▼

AST2.5UNDER8%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x7/1937%+9.9% edge▼

3PA8UNDER27%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x8/1942%▼

PRA25.5UNDER19%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)8/1942%▼

P+R23.5UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (7/20)7/1937%▼

P+A20.5UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (7/20)8/1942%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)UNDER 4x9/1947%▼

BLK1UNDER20%gbt_blocksAvoid (5/20)6/1932%▼

FTM0.5UNDER23%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/1947%▼

FTA0.5UNDER11%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Ace Bailey

Points UNDER 15.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest blend of season baseline and market price. Bailey’s 12.6 season PPG is well below 15.5, and even with a strong last-5 surge, his points profile remains volatile enough that the under is still the more reliable side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Dominick Barlow	2	3	3	25%	25%
Adem Bona	2	2	4	50%	50%
Quentin Grimes	1	2	2	33%	33%
Andre Drummond	2	2	2	50%	50%
MarJon Beauchamp	1	2	2	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 15.558%MEDIUM

His season scoring average is 12.6 PPG, and while recent form is stronger, his points are volatile with a 7.07 season standard deviation. The market number is above his season baseline, so the under is the safer side despite the recent spike.

reboundsUNDER 4.564%MEDIUM

Bailey averages 4.0 RPG on the season and 4.4 over the last 5, which keeps this line close to his true range. The under is supported by his season mean staying below 4.5 and only modest recent rebound growth.

assistsUNDER 2.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.7 APG on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, well below 2.5. Even with teammate absences, his assist production has not consistently moved into this range.

threesOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

He averages 1.82 made threes per game on the season and 3.6 over the last 10, with 3.1 at home. The line is below his current recent shot volume, though the season-average anchor keeps confidence moderate.

stealsUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, but 1.5 is still a demanding line. Given the season mean and the volatility in defensive stats, the under is the conservative side.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 10, so 0.5 is reachable. This is still a low-confidence defensive prop because his block rate is only moderate overall.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.43, but the last 5 sit at 2.0 and the last 10 at 2.1. This is viable, though the stat is volatile and the season baseline is just under the line.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

His recent ball-handling load has pushed turnovers up to 2.4 over the last 5 and 1.8 over the last 10, with a season mark of 1.7. If his usage stays elevated, 2-plus turnovers is within range.

praUNDER 20.560%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 18.32 using 12.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.7 assists, which is below this line. Recent scoring helps, but combo props carry extra variance and are best faded when the number sits above the season blend.

paUNDER 17.558%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists total is 14.3, far below 17.5. Recent scoring has improved, but assist volume remains modest enough that this is still a tough over to justify.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS