Philadelphia 76ers vs Utah Jazz — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

PHI

Philadelphia 76ers

38-32 | L10: 5-5

UTA

Utah Jazz

21-49 | L10: 3-7

2026-03-21

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

PHI95%

5%UTA

PHI80-80UTA

Key Factors

*Jazz without Lauri Markkanen (26.7 PPG) - out (Hip)
*76ers without Joel Embiid (26.4 PPG) - out ()
*Jazz without Keyonte George (23.6 PPG) - out (Hamstring)
*76ers without Paul George (16.2 PPG) - out ()
*Jazz without Isaiah Collier (11.7 PPG) - out (Hamstring)

Key Matchup

76ers has matchup advantages

UTA Advantages

+ Positional advantages

PHI Advantages

Key Defensive Matchups

PHI Players

Quentin Grimes

Cody Williams2g · 4m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Elijah Harkless2g · 4m+0.0%100% eFGlow

Ace Bailey2g · 3m+0.0%50% eFGlow

Dominick Barlow

Ace Bailey2g · 5m+0.0%64% eFGlow

Cody Williams2g · 1m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Philadelphia enters at 38-32 while Utah sits at 21-49, and both teams are on a one-game streak with two days of rest and three games in the last seven days. The matchup is heavily shaped by absences: Utah is missing Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George, and Lauri Markkanen, while Philadelphia is without Joel Embiid and Paul George, shifting usage toward secondary scorers and rebounders on both sides.

Team Comparison

PHIUTA

Key Players

His season scoring is 6.1 PPG, but he is at 11.8 PPG over his last 5 with 28.8 MPG after averaging 18 MPG for the season. With Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George out, his ball-handling and scoring load have expanded, and the assist prop becomes relevant because he has 3.8 APG over his last 5.

ProjectedPTS: 1.2-7.8-14.4REB: 0-2.1-5.1AST: 0.6-3-5.4

Bailey is at 17.6 PPG over his last 5 versus a 12.6 season average, and he is also playing 26.2 MPG in that span. Utah’s injury-depleted offense should keep his usage elevated, but his recent scoring is above the season baseline and the volatility is high.

ProjectedPTS: 6.9-13.5-20.1REB: 1.2-4.2-7.2AST: 0-2-4.4

Williams has surged to 18.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 4.4 APG over his last 5 while logging 32.8 MPG, far above his 7.2 PPG season mark. The scoring spike is real but extreme, so his points line needs caution despite the opportunity created by Utah’s injuries.

ProjectedPTS: 4.3-10.9-17.5REB: 0.6-3.6-6.6AST: 0.3-2.7-5.1

Filipowski is still producing well at 13.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 4.0 APG over his last 5, but that is slightly below his 13.9 PPG last-10 pace. His workload is stable enough for rebound and combo looks, and he has a strong home split with 14.1 PPG and 7.6 RPG.

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Elijah Harkless▼ UTA	Assists	2.5stake	OVER	58%MEDIUM	50%	+5.4%	5	✓
Elijah Harkless▼ UTA	Points	21.5draftkings	UNDER	89%HIGH	90%	+36.8%	15	✓
Ace Bailey▼ UTA	Points	15.5draftkings	UNDER	83%HIGH	40%	+23.6%	25	✗
Cody Williams▼ UTA	Points	8.5stake	OVER	54%LOW	80%	0.0%	15	✓
Justin Edwards▼ PHI	Points	22.5draftkings	UNDER	74%HIGH	90%	+21.2%	8	✓

Model Comparison

2 models · 10 props compared

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Props Shown

10 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Elijah Harkless

Points UNDER 21.5HIGH

This is the cleanest mismatch on the board: 6.1 PPG season, 8.5 PPG last-10, and a 21.5 line with 0.894 projected under probability at DraftKings. The 36.8% edge and +69.93 EV per $100 are too large to ignore.

Justin Edwards

Points UNDER 22.5HIGH

Edwards’ 19.0 PPG last-5 is still below the line, and the season baseline is only 6.3 PPG. The 21.2% edge and +40.46 EV per $100 make this a strong fade of the inflated number.

Ace Bailey

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

Bailey’s 12.6 season PPG is still well under 15.5, and his recent spike to 17.6 PPG looks regression-prone. The model gives the under a 23.6% edge and +45.79 EV per $100.

Parlay of the Game

Elijah Harkless — Points UNDER 21.5Leg 1

Justin Edwards — Points UNDER 22.5Leg 2

Ace Bailey — Points UNDER 15.5Leg 3

These legs all lean under on inflated scoring lines relative to season baselines, and they benefit from the same game context: Utah’s offense is missing multiple creators, while Philadelphia’s wing usage is concentrated enough to create volatility. The under correlation is not perfect, but all three plays are supported by strong value edges and regression risk on recent hot streaks.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Utah is without Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George, and Lauri Markkanen. Philadelphia is without Joel Embiid and Paul George, which boosts usage for Quentin Grimes, Justin Edwards, Dominick Barlow, and Adem Bona; no historical defender matchup data available for Elijah Harkless.

Player Deep Dives

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.