76ers has matchup advantages
Philadelphia enters at 38-32 while Utah sits at 21-49, and both teams are on a one-game streak with two days of rest and three games in the last seven days. The matchup is heavily shaped by absences: Utah is missing Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George, and Lauri Markkanen, while Philadelphia is without Joel Embiid and Paul George, shifting usage toward secondary scorers and rebounders on both sides.
His season scoring is 6.1 PPG, but he is at 11.8 PPG over his last 5 with 28.8 MPG after averaging 18 MPG for the season. With Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George out, his ball-handling and scoring load have expanded, and the assist prop becomes relevant because he has 3.8 APG over his last 5.
Bailey is at 17.6 PPG over his last 5 versus a 12.6 season average, and he is also playing 26.2 MPG in that span. Utah’s injury-depleted offense should keep his usage elevated, but his recent scoring is above the season baseline and the volatility is high.
Williams has surged to 18.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 4.4 APG over his last 5 while logging 32.8 MPG, far above his 7.2 PPG season mark. The scoring spike is real but extreme, so his points line needs caution despite the opportunity created by Utah’s injuries.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | Trend | Edge | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elijah Harkless▼ UTA | Assists | 2.5stake | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 50% | +5.4% | 5 | ✓ |
Elijah Harkless▼ UTA | Points | 21.5draftkings | UNDER | 89%HIGH | 90% | +36.8% | 15 | ✓ |
Ace Bailey▼ UTA | Points | 15.5draftkings | UNDER | 83%HIGH | 40% | +23.6% | 25 | ✗ |
Cody Williams▼ UTA | Points | 8.5stake | OVER | 54%LOW | 80% | 0.0% | 15 | ✓ |
Justin Edwards▼ PHI | Points | 22.5draftkings | UNDER | 74%HIGH | 90% | +21.2% | 8 | ✓ |
2 models · 10 props compared
Props Shown
10
10 total on slate
Models
2
1 game view
Unanimous
9
Full agreement across submitted picks
This is the cleanest mismatch on the board: 6.1 PPG season, 8.5 PPG last-10, and a 21.5 line with 0.894 projected under probability at DraftKings. The 36.8% edge and +69.93 EV per $100 are too large to ignore.
Edwards’ 19.0 PPG last-5 is still below the line, and the season baseline is only 6.3 PPG. The 21.2% edge and +40.46 EV per $100 make this a strong fade of the inflated number.
Bailey’s 12.6 season PPG is still well under 15.5, and his recent spike to 17.6 PPG looks regression-prone. The model gives the under a 23.6% edge and +45.79 EV per $100.
These legs all lean under on inflated scoring lines relative to season baselines, and they benefit from the same game context: Utah’s offense is missing multiple creators, while Philadelphia’s wing usage is concentrated enough to create volatility. The under correlation is not perfect, but all three plays are supported by strong value edges and regression risk on recent hot streaks.
Utah is without Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George, and Lauri Markkanen. Philadelphia is without Joel Embiid and Paul George, which boosts usage for Quentin Grimes, Justin Edwards, Dominick Barlow, and Adem Bona; no historical defender matchup data available for Elijah Harkless.
Bona is not a high-usage scorer, but he has 6.4 RPG over his last 5 and 5.5 RPG over the last 20, which fits the Embiid-out frontcourt environment. He also brings strong defensive counting stats with 1.4 BPG over his last 5 and 2.4 stocks per game in that span.
Edwards is on a big usage spike at 19.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 3.2 APG over his last 5 compared with 6.3 PPG on the season. That run is supported by 28.6 MPG over the last 5, but the points number has moved up and the recent surge creates regression risk.
Barlow has a modest role but is steady at 10.4 PPG and 6.4 RPG over his last 5, with 28.2 MPG in that stretch. With Embiid out, his rebound and combo floors improve, though his scoring remains close to his season baseline.
Grimes is the clearest Philadelphia usage winner, up to 22.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 3.8 APG over his last 5 while playing 32.8 MPG. His season line is much lower at 13.9 PPG, so scoring upside is obvious, but the hot streak is also a regression concern.