AI Model:

Dominick Barlow—

PHI · PF

PPG

8.3

RPG

4.8

APG

1.2

L5 PPG

10.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.1

8.3

10.4

RPG+1.6

4.8

6.4

APG+0.8

1.2

2.0

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG+0.5

0.7

1.2

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

SAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAS: 0 pts

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 7 pts

ATL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ATL: 4 pts

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 8 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DET: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 10 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 11 pts

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 8 pts

SAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAC: 12 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

AST

UNDER 1.5

62%

3PM

UNDER 0.5BETONLINEAG

64%

BLK

OVER 0.5

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

UNDER 1.5

59%

PRA

UNDER 24.5

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.8

8.6

RPG

3.8

4.6

APG

0.9

1.2

vs UTA (H2H)3 games

PPG

3.7

RPG

3.3

APG

0.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Johnson	3	21	44%	-14.3%	medium
Pascal Siakam	2	14	50%	-11.4%	low
Scottie Barnes	3	12	38%	-16.8%	medium
Jaylen Brown	2	11	80%

Barlow’s role is boosted, but the market still leans under on the scoring line

Dominick Barlow is in a strong-minute spot with Joel Embiid and Paul George both out, and his recent usage reflects that lift: 10.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 2.0 APG over the last 5 games on 28.2 MPG. Even with that bump, his season baseline remains modest at 8.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 1.2 APG, and his last-10 and last-20 scoring averages are both 8.2. Utah’s defense has a 124.78 defensive rating and the matchup data does not show a major individual stopper, but the available value market still points to unders on points and rebounds.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.4(↑ from 8.3)

RPG

6.4(↑ from 4.8)

APG

2.0(↑ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

Utah’s team defense data is poor, with a 124.78 defensive rating and 100 pace, which can help volume stay elevated. The provided key defender data is limited, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Dominick Barlow▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	1	✓
Dominick Barlow▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Dominick Barlow▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✓
Dominick Barlow▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Dominick Barlow▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✗
Dominick Barlow▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Dominick Barlow▼	Turnovers	1.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Dominick Barlow▼	PRA	24.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	100%	3	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS5.5OVER25%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x14/1974%+23.7% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA10.5OVER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x14/1974%+22.5% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.527▼

P+A9UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/1942%▼

P+R12UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)9/1947%▼

REB3.5UNDER9%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)11/1958%▼

AST1UNDER11%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)9/1947%▼

FTA2UNDER50%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x4/1921%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

FTM1UNDER28%gbtAvoid (7/20)7/1937%▼

Featured Pick

Dominick Barlow

Points UNDER 11.5HIGH

This is the clearest market edge in the dataset. His season scoring mean is 8.33, his last-10 is 8.2, and the value props show a 14.5% edge on the Under with 0.673 estimated probability, making this the strongest play despite the recent minutes bump.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ace Bailey	2	5	9	43%	64%
Cody Williams	2	1	0	0%	0%
Bez Mbeng	1	1	0	0%	0%
Brice Sensabaugh	1	0	2	50%	50%
Elijah Harkless	2	0	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 11.567%MEDIUM

The season mean is 8.33 PPG and the last-10 is 8.2, both well below 11.5. Even with recent improvement, the value data shows a strong Under lean with 0.673 implied under probability and a 14.5% best edge.

reboundsUNDER 5.560%MEDIUM

Barlow’s season rebound mean is 4.79 and last-10 is 4.4, which sit under the book line. The under is supported by value data showing a 0.597 under probability and a positive edge on the under side.

assistsUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.17 APG and last-10 is 1.4 APG, so 1.5 is slightly above his typical output. The recent role increase helps, but the baseline still favors the under on a low-volume assist profile.

threesUNDER 0.564%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.34 threes per game for the season and 0.2 over the last 10, so he’s not generating consistent 3PM volume. The under fits both the season profile and the recent shot pattern.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 blocks per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 10, with 1.2 over the last 5. That recent uptick makes 0.5 a playable over, though the sample is still volatile.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.62 and recent is 1.6, so 1.5 is right in his normal range. The last-5 mark of 2.2 suggests a slight recent edge without stretching beyond his profile.

turnoversUNDER 1.559%MEDIUM

He is at 1.0 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 1.3 over the last 10, both below 1.5. Even with more minutes, this line is above his usual ball-security baseline.

praUNDER 24.554%MEDIUM

His season profile of 8.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.2 assists does not naturally support a 24.5 PRA line. Recent minutes are up, but combo props carry added variance and should be treated conservatively.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS