AI Model:

Adem Bona—

PHI · C

PPG

4.8

RPG

4.5

APG

0.4

L5 PPG

5.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.0

4.8

5.8

RPG+1.9

4.5

6.4

APG0.0

0.4

SPG+0.6

0.4

1.0

BPG+0.1

1.3

1.4

OVER 6.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

6.5

BOS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BOS: 5 pts

SAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAS: 6 pts

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 12 pts

ATL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ATL: 4 pts

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 8 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 4 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 9 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 2 pts

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 6 pts

SAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAC: 8 pts

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

AST

UNDER 0.5

78%

BLK

UNDER 1.5STAKE

60%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

70%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

67%

P+R

OVER 7.5STAKE

64%

R+A

UNDER 9.5

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

6.5

6.1

RPG

5.6

5.4

APG

0.5

0.9

vs UTA (H2H)2 games

PPG

13.0

RPG

10.0

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Evan Mobley	4	14	68%	-1.3%	medium
Karl-Anthony Towns	3	9	65%	-0.1%	medium
Nic Claxton	3	9	100%	+39.9%	medium
Collin Murray-Boyles	3	8	29%

Bona’s role-driven rebound and stock upside stands out in Utah

Adem Bona’s season line is modest at 4.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 1.3 BPG, but his recent role has been stronger with 6.4 PPG and 6.1 RPG over the last 10 while logging 21.9 MPG. The biggest boost comes from teammate absences, with Joel Embiid and Paul George both out, which supports Bona’s minutes and frontcourt usage. Utah has allowed a high 124.78 defensive rating, and Bona already posted 13 points and 10 rebounds in two games vs this opponent. The main caution is variance: his scoring is still low-volume, so his best value is in rebounds and combo production rather than pure points.

Stat Trends

PPG

5.8(↑ from 4.8)

RPG

6.4(↑ from 4.5)

BPG

1.4(→ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

Utah’s team defense profile is weak, with a 124.78 defensive rating and 100 pace, which supports a modest lift for Bona’s counting stats. He also has a strong head-to-head sample against this opponent at 13 PPG and 10 RPG in 30.5 MPG, and the provided key defender data does not create a specific one-on-one concern.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Adem Bona▼	Points	6.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	16	✓
Adem Bona▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	5	✗
Adem Bona▼	Assists	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	40%	0	✓
Adem Bona▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✗
Adem Bona▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	70%HIGH	—	50%	1	✓
Adem Bona▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✓
Adem Bona▼	P+R	7.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	21	✓
Adem Bona▼	R+A	9.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	5	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA14UNDER17%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x7/1839%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A8UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x6/1833%▼

AST1UNDER52%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)5/1828%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

FTA2UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)5/1828%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/1844%▼

P+R12UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x7/1839%▼

PTS6UNDER3%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x7/1839%▼

REB5UNDER14%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x7/1839%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

BLK1UNDER46%gbt_blocksAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x5/1828%▼

FTM1UNDER23%gbtAvoid (7/20)8/1844%▼

Featured Pick

Adem Bona

Rebounds OVER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his recent rebound form is clearly above his season baseline, with 6.1 RPG over the last 10 and 6.4 RPG over the last 5. The absence of Joel Embiid and Paul George should keep Bona’s frontcourt role elevated, and he already showed 10 rebounds in a prior game vs Utah.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kyle Filipowski	1	4	2	0%	0%
Bez Mbeng	1	2	4	67%	67%
Ace Bailey	2	2	4	100%	100%
Cody Williams	2	1	2	33%	33%
John Konchar	1	1	2	50%	50%

pointsOVER 6.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 4.78, but the last 10 is 6.4 and his recent minutes are up to 21.9. With Embiid and Paul George out, the role expansion makes 6.5 reachable, though his scoring still carries modest volatility.

reboundsOVER 5.566%MEDIUM

Bona is at 4.47 RPG for the season and 6.1 RPG over the last 10, with 6.4 RPG in the last 5. The frontcourt absences support continued rebound volume, and his prior game vs Utah included 10 rebounds.

assistsUNDER 0.578%HIGH

He averages only 0.41 APG on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, which is still a very low baseline. Even with more minutes, his assist role remains limited.

blocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.3 BPG and recent block rate is 1.4, so 1.5 is not out of range, but it is a demanding number for a high-variance stat. The standard deviation profile suggests keeping confidence moderate.

stealsOVER 0.570%HIGH

He averages 0.4 SPG on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, with 0.6 over the last 10. Since the line is only 0.5 and he has recently been active in stocks, the over is playable.

stocksOVER 1.567%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.68 and his last 20 is 1.5, while the last 5 is 2.4. With blocks plus steals combined trending well, 1.5 is a reasonable target.

prOVER 7.564%MEDIUM

His season PR estimate is 9.25 using 4.78 points and 4.47 rebounds, and recent form is even better with 12.5 combined over the last 10. The combination is still somewhat volatile, but the role and matchup support it.

raUNDER 9.562%MEDIUM

He is only at 4.5 RPG and 0.41 APG on the season, so a high RA line would be difficult to clear. Even with better rebounding, assists remain too low to build a strong over case.

timelineOVER 6.5 PTS