AI Model:

Kyle Filipowski▼

UTA · C

PPG

10.7

RPG

7.0

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

13.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.9

10.7

13.6

RPG+0.8

7.0

7.8

APG+1.6

2.4

4.0

SPG+0.2

1.0

1.2

BPG+0.1

0.5

0.6

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 12 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 19 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 6 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 20 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 14 pts

GSW

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs GSW: 19 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 15 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 11 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 7 pts

MIL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIL: 16 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

REB

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

STL

UNDER 1.5

72%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

56%

OVER 2

60%

PRA

UNDER 30

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.1

12.8

RPG

7.6

9.2

APG

3.0

3.2

vs PHI (H2H)3 games

PPG

10.3

RPG

7.3

APG

2.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Alperen Sengun	4	14	79%	+29.2%	medium
Dwight Powell	3	13	80%	+30.6%	medium
Julius Randle	4	11	50%	+0.6%	medium
Nic Claxton	2	10	29%

Filipowski’s expanded role keeps him in the points/rebounds mix, but the market leans to the under

Kyle Filipowski is producing above his season baseline lately, with 13.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 4.0 APG over his last 5 compared to season marks of 10.7, 7.0, and 2.4. That said, his recent scoring is running well above season average, so regression risk is real even with the extra usage from Utah’s absences. The matchup is softened by Philadelphia missing Joel Embiid and Paul George, but the available data still points to a more balanced projection than the recent hot stretch. With his season-to-recent gap and a handful of under-friendly value signals, the safest angle is to fade the inflated scoring line.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.6(↑ from 10.7)

RPG

7.8(↑ from 7.0)

APG

4.0(↑ from 2.4)

Stocks

1.8(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Philadelphia is missing Joel Embiid and Paul George, which improves the environment for Utah scorers and frontcourt production. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the safest read is that the absence context helps, but not enough to fully justify an aggressive over on inflated lines.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Kyle Filipowski▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	2/2	60%	12	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	6	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	4	✗
Kyle Filipowski▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	80%	1	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	70%	1	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✗
Kyle Filipowski▼	PRA	30	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	22	✓

ML Scout Analysis

AST3.5OVER4%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%+8.1% edge▼

PRA31.5UNDER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%+8.1% edge▼

PTS18.5UNDER0%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%+5.9% edge▼

REB9.5UNDER24%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%+13.1% edge▼

P+A19.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER18%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

P+R24.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

3PM1.5UNDER30%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%+7.3% edge▼

FTM2.5UNDER16%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

FTA4UNDER30%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

R+A12.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER11%gbt_stealsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Kyle Filipowski

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

This is the clearest value spot in the data, with multiple books showing the under as the best side and a 27.7% edge at 15.5. Filipowski’s 10.66 season PPG sits well below the line, and his 13.9 last-10 scoring is already elevated enough to invite regression.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Adem Bona	2	8	9	80%	80%
Dominick Barlow	2	2	2	50%	50%
Andre Drummond	2	1	0	0%	0%
Quentin Grimes	1	0	0	0%	0%
Jabari Walker	1	0	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 15.582%HIGH

His season mean is 10.66 PPG, while recent production is 13.9 PPG, which is elevated enough to create regression risk. The value data also shows a strong under lean at 15.5 with a 27.7% edge and 49.78 EV per 100 on the under.

reboundsUNDER 7.557%MEDIUM

He averages 6.97 RPG for the season and 8.9 over the last 10, but the rebound line is only slightly above his season norm. The edge data is weak here, so this is more of a cautious lean than a strong play.

assistsUNDER 3.566%MEDIUM

Season assists are 2.4 APG, and even with recent growth to 3.9 over the last 10, the line sits above his season baseline. The value board also favors the under at 3.5.

threesUNDER 1.571%HIGH

He averages 0.9 made threes per game on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, which is still below this line. The under is supported by the data despite his recent uptick.

stealsUNDER 1.572%HIGH

He averages 1.0 SPG on the season, but 1.5 is a demanding line for a low-volume defensive stat. The recent trend is positive, but the distribution is volatile enough to prefer the under.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 BPG on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, so this line is aligned with his baseline production. This is a thin edge, but the raw rate supports an over lean.

stocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.48 and recent marks are 2.1 over the last 10, which clears the volume threshold. Because of the stat volatility, confidence stays modest.

turnoversOVER 260%MEDIUM

He has averaged 2.0 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.5 over the last 20, with recent games showing several 3+ turnover outings. The role increase has come with higher turnover risk.

praUNDER 3063%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 20.1 and his recent form is better, but combo props carry extra variance. Given the inflated scoring/rebounding run, the under is the more conservative side.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS