Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Rollins | 2 | 6 | 56% | +10.6% | low |
| James Harden | 2 | 6 | 79% | +26.4% | low |
| DeMar DeRozan | 2 | 5 | 0% | -45.0% | low |
| Brandon Ingram | 2 | 5 | 75% |
Justin Edwards has clearly been trending up, with his last 5 games jumping to 19.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 3.2 APG while playing 28.6 MPG, well above his season marks of 6.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG, and 1.4 APG. The role is supported by major teammate absences, as Joel Embiid (26.4 PPG), Paul George (16.2 PPG), and Johni Broome are all out, which should keep Edwards involved offensively. Even so, his season baseline is still much lower than the recent surge, and the prop market has already priced in a big jump; the best value remains on his under lines. The opponent context also matters: Utah’s defense numbers are poor overall, but the available data still points to volatility rather than a clean over spot.
Utah’s defense profile is weak overall, with a 124.78 defensive rating and 100 pace, but the data also shows no specific defender matchup data to key on. The opponent is missing Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George, and Lauri Markkanen, which can change game flow and shot distribution, but there is no defender-specific edge to anchor an aggressive over.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Justin Edwards▼ | Points | 14.5 | UNDER | 82%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | 8 | ✓ |
Justin Edwards▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 80%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | 0 | ✓ |
Justin Edwards▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | 1/2 | 40% | 1 | ✓ |
Justin Edwards▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Justin Edwards▼ | Steals | 0.8 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
Justin Edwards▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Justin Edwards▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 1 | ✗ |
This is the strongest value on the board: the model shows a 23.6% edge and 45.79 EV per 100 on the under at DraftKings. Edwards has surged recently, but his season average is still only 6.3 PPG, and that gap makes 14.5 a high bar even with expanded minutes.
| low |
| Donovan Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 125% | +55.0% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Williams | 2 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 100% |
| Kennedy Chandler | 1 | 2 | 5 | 67% | 83% |
| Ace Bailey | 2 | 2 | 3 | 25% | 38% |
| Elijah Harkless | 1 | 2 | 4 | 40% | 40% |
| Blake Hinson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 150% |
The season mean is 6.3 PPG and the value data shows the UNDER as the best side with a 23.6% edge and 45.79 EV per 100. His last 5 at 19.0 PPG is far above season form, so regression risk is high.
He averages only 1.7 RPG on the season, and the best value data points to the UNDER with a 22.1% edge. Even with a recent bump to 4.0 RPG over the last 5, the baseline remains well below the line.
Season assist average is 1.4 APG versus a 2.5 line, and the value sheet shows UNDER as the best side with a 21.0% edge. Recent usage is higher, but the assist profile is still volatile with a 1.32 season standard deviation.
He averages 1.1 threes per game on the season and 1.9 over the last 5, but the over has already been driven up to 2.5. The value table still favors the UNDER, though the edge is smaller than the other props.
He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season and 1.2 in both home and away splits, so this is one of the cleaner over candidates. Recent form is also strong at 1.8 steals over the last 10.
His season block average is only 0.2, and even the last 5 at 0.6 is not enough to make this a strong over given the small sample. The better read is that blocks remain a low-volume stat for him.
He averages 1.1 stocks on the season, but recent production has climbed to 2.1 over the last 10 and 3.0 over the last 5. That makes the 1.5 threshold reachable if the minutes stay elevated.