AI Model:

Justin Edwards▲

PHI · SF

PPG

6.3

RPG

1.7

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

19.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+12.7

6.3

19.0

RPG+2.3

1.7

4.0

APG+1.8

1.4

3.2

SPG+1.5

0.9

2.4

BPG+0.4

0.2

0.6

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

IND

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs IND: 2 pts

SAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAS: 9 pts

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 5 pts

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 0 pts

DET

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DET: 12 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 19 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 21 pts

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 11 pts

SAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAC: 32 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

80%

AST

UNDER 2.5BETONLINEAG

74%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

STL

OVER 0.8

62%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

66%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.6

8.2

RPG

2.0

1.8

APG

1.8

1.7

vs UTA (H2H)2 games

PPG

8.0

RPG

3.0

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ryan Rollins	2	6	56%	+10.6%	low
James Harden	2	6	79%	+26.4%	low
DeMar DeRozan	2	5	0%	-45.0%	low
Brandon Ingram	2	5	75%

Expanded role boosts Edwards, but the numbers still lean to the under on inflated lines

Justin Edwards has clearly been trending up, with his last 5 games jumping to 19.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 3.2 APG while playing 28.6 MPG, well above his season marks of 6.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG, and 1.4 APG. The role is supported by major teammate absences, as Joel Embiid (26.4 PPG), Paul George (16.2 PPG), and Johni Broome are all out, which should keep Edwards involved offensively. Even so, his season baseline is still much lower than the recent surge, and the prop market has already priced in a big jump; the best value remains on his under lines. The opponent context also matters: Utah’s defense numbers are poor overall, but the available data still points to volatility rather than a clean over spot.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.0(↑ from 6.3)

RPG

4.0(↑ from 1.7)

APG

3.2(↑ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

Utah’s defense profile is weak overall, with a 124.78 defensive rating and 100 pace, but the data also shows no specific defender matchup data to key on. The opponent is missing Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George, and Lauri Markkanen, which can change game flow and shot distribution, but there is no defender-specific edge to anchor an aggressive over.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Justin Edwards▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	70%	8	✓
Justin Edwards▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	1/2	70%	0	✓
Justin Edwards▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	40%	1	✓
Justin Edwards▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	60%	1	✓
Justin Edwards▼	Steals	0.8	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	1	✓
Justin Edwards▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Justin Edwards▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A14.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x5/1339%▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 5x5/1339%▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x6/1346%▼

PTS11UNDER24%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)6/1346%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST2UNDER13%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x6/1346%▼

3PM1UNDER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x6/1346%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

PRA13UNDER28%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x6/1346%▼

REB2UNDER42%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 5x4/1331%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

STL1UNDER39%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x6/1346%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

3PA4UNDER32%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x5/1339%▼

FTA1UNDER26%gbtAvoid (7/20)4/1331%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Justin Edwards

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board: the model shows a 23.6% edge and 45.79 EV per 100 on the under at DraftKings. Edwards has surged recently, but his season average is still only 6.3 PPG, and that gap makes 14.5 a high bar even with expanded minutes.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cody Williams	2	3	4	100%	100%
Kennedy Chandler	1	2	5	67%	83%
Ace Bailey	2	2	3	25%	38%
Elijah Harkless	1	2	4	40%	40%
Blake Hinson	1	2	3	100%	150%

pointsUNDER 14.582%HIGH

The season mean is 6.3 PPG and the value data shows the UNDER as the best side with a 23.6% edge and 45.79 EV per 100. His last 5 at 19.0 PPG is far above season form, so regression risk is high.

reboundsUNDER 3.580%HIGH

He averages only 1.7 RPG on the season, and the best value data points to the UNDER with a 22.1% edge. Even with a recent bump to 4.0 RPG over the last 5, the baseline remains well below the line.

assistsUNDER 2.574%HIGH

Season assist average is 1.4 APG versus a 2.5 line, and the value sheet shows UNDER as the best side with a 21.0% edge. Recent usage is higher, but the assist profile is still volatile with a 1.32 season standard deviation.

threesUNDER 2.571%HIGH

He averages 1.1 threes per game on the season and 1.9 over the last 5, but the over has already been driven up to 2.5. The value table still favors the UNDER, though the edge is smaller than the other props.

stealsOVER 0.862%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season and 1.2 in both home and away splits, so this is one of the cleaner over candidates. Recent form is also strong at 1.8 steals over the last 10.

blocksUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

His season block average is only 0.2, and even the last 5 at 0.6 is not enough to make this a strong over given the small sample. The better read is that blocks remain a low-volume stat for him.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 stocks on the season, but recent production has climbed to 2.1 over the last 10 and 3.0 over the last 5. That makes the 1.5 threshold reachable if the minutes stay elevated.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS