AI Model:

Cody Williams—

UTA · SG

PPG

7.2

RPG

2.8

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

18.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+11.4

7.2

18.6

RPG+2.0

2.8

4.8

APG+2.9

1.5

4.4

SPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 3 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 9 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 13 pts

GSW

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs GSW: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 10 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 19 pts

SAC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs SAC: 34 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 7 pts

MIL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIL: 23 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

89%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

76%

STL

OVER 0.5

58%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

62%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

UNDER 2

64%

P+A

UNDER 19.5

67%

P+R

UNDER 10

71%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.5

10.2

RPG

2.6

5.1

APG

3.2

2.6

vs PHI (H2H)3 games

PPG

7.3

RPG

5.0

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	11	69%	+15.2%	medium
Jamal Murray	3	10	78%	+8.3%	medium
Stephon Castle	3	8	45%	-7.3%	medium
Kevin Durant	2	8	50%

Expanded role gives Cody Williams a path to production, but the base rates still lean under

Cody Williams is in a much larger role with Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George, and Lauri Markkanen all out, and his last 5 games reflect that with 18.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 4.4 APG in 32.8 MPG. That said, his season line is still modest at 7.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG, and 1.5 APG, so the recent surge is a clear outlier relative to his full-body of work. Philadelphia’s defense context is not especially restrictive overall, but the player-specific matchup data is not meaningful here, and the biggest question is whether his recent usage holds. With the market already pricing a big step up, the safer angle is to fade the inflated lines rather than chase the hot streak.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.6(↑ from 7.2)

RPG

4.8(↑ from 2.8)

APG

4.4(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Quentin Grimes and Justin Edwards are listed with only 0.3 minutes each, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. The opponent defense context shows a 116.06 defensive rating, 100 pace, and a 0.164 scoring suppression rate, which does not strongly boost an aggressive over case.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Cody Williams▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	89%HIGH	1/2	70%	15	✓
Cody Williams▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✓
Cody Williams▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	50%	3	✓
Cody Williams▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Cody Williams▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✗
Cody Williams▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Cody Williams▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Cody Williams▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	70%	3	✗
Cody Williams▼	P+A	19.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	18	✓
Cody Williams▼	P+R	10	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	10%	15	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA24.5UNDER5%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%+8.1% edge▼

PTS15.5UNDER18%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%+12.2% edge▼

AST3.5OVER30%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

FTA3OVER2%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

3PA2UNDER52%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

R+A8OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

P+R18.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

P+A18.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

REB4.5OVER14%gbt_reboundsAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

STL1UNDER15%gbt_stealsAvoid (6/20)6/2030%▼

FTM2UNDER26%gbtAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Cody Williams

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

This is the cleanest fade because the market line is far above his season scoring average of 7.2 PPG. Even after accounting for the recent usage jump, the value sheet shows a strong UNDER edge at every listed book, including a 36.5% edge at FanDuel and 65.72 EV per 100 at DraftKings.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Quentin Grimes	1	4	6	100%	100%
Jabari Walker	1	2	0	0%	0%
Cameron Payne	2	2	0	0%	0%
Adem Bona	2	2	0	0%	0%
Dominick Barlow	2	2	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 15.589%HIGH

His season mean is 7.2 PPG, and even with the recent spike to 18.6 PPG, this is a major regression spot. The value data also shows the best side is UNDER with a 36.5% edge and 69.13 EV per 100 at FanDuel.

reboundsUNDER 4.569%MEDIUM

He’s at 2.8 RPG for the season and only 4.8 RPG over the last 5, so this line is still above his baseline. The recent minutes bump helps, but the season and recent blend still points slightly below 4.5.

assistsUNDER 3.574%HIGH

Williams averages just 1.5 APG on the season, and his 4.4 APG last 5 is being driven by the expanded role from teammate absences. That’s a strong recent jump, but the broader sample still supports the under.

threesUNDER 1.576%HIGH

He averages only 0.44 threes per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, which is still below this line. The low season three-point rate and 0.245 three-point percentage make the over tough to justify.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 steals per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so the 0.5 threshold is reachable. Confidence stays moderate because steal outcomes are volatile, but the volume supports a small lean over.

blocksUNDER 0.562%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.4 blocks per game, below the 0.5 threshold. He has the occasional spike, but the baseline profile is still under.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 stocks on the season and 1.3 over the last 10, both below 1.5. This is close, but not enough to make the over attractive.

turnoversUNDER 264%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rate is 1.8 and season rate is 1.4, so this sits slightly above his typical range. The expanded role pushes risk up, but the profile still leans under 2.0.

paUNDER 19.567%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists baseline is 8.7, and even the recent surge only gets him to 23.0 over the last 5. Because combo props are higher-variance, the safer side is under the projected line.

prUNDER 1071%HIGH

He averages 10.0 combined points and rebounds by season mean, but the recent form is inflated by minutes and usage. Since his scoring and rebounding are both above baseline recently, this is still a cautious under rather than an over chase.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS