AI Model:

Quentin Grimes—

PHI · SG

PPG

13.9

RPG

3.7

APG

3.4

L5 PPG

22.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+8.5

13.9

22.4

RPG+0.5

3.7

4.2

APG+0.4

3.4

3.8

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

22.5

SAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAS: 2 pts

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 16 pts

ATL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ATL: 26 pts

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 17 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 23 pts

DET

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DET: 14 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 28 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 31 pts

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 12 pts

SAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAC: 27 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 0.5

58%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

66%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

UNDER 2

56%

P+R

UNDER 17.5

62%

P+A

UNDER 17.5

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.6

13.8

RPG

3.9

3.0

APG

1.7

3.5

vs UTA (H2H)9 games

PPG

11.0

RPG

2.9

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Anfernee Simons	3	13	71%	+4.9%	medium
Duncan Robinson	4	10	75%	+4.9%	medium
Payton Pritchard	4	10	25%	-20.1%	medium
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	3	10	69%

Grimes’ usage is elevated, but the market still prices in a modest scoring night

Quentin Grimes is in strong recent form, averaging 22.4 PPG over his last 5 games and 19.6 over his last 10, well above his 13.9 season mark. With Joel Embiid and Paul George out, his role remains expanded, but his season-long baseline and the elevated last-5 scoring suggest some regression risk rather than a runaway over. Utah has a 124.78 defensive rating and a 2.164 scoring suppression mark, while Grimes has also averaged just 11 PPG in 9 games vs this opponent, which tempers the ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.4(↑ from 13.9)

RPG

4.2(→ from 3.7)

APG

3.8(→ from 3.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Utah's opponent defense context is unfavorable for scoring efficiency, with a 124.78 defensive rating and 2.164 scoring suppression, though the key defender list does not provide meaningful one-on-one coverage data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Quentin Grimes▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	25	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	80%	4	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	1	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	70%	4	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	30	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	29	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA13.5UNDER14%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)15/2075%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.482; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

P+A18UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%▼

PTS13.5UNDER31%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER39%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%▼

REB4UNDER34%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

AST2UNDER14%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

3PM1UNDER2%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

FTA2.5UNDER15%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 6x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2UNDER38%gbtAvoid (6/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Quentin Grimes

Assists UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: his season assist mean is 3.43, last-10 is 3.0, and the value props all show a strong UNDER edge at 4.5. The DraftKings value entry shows a 24.0% edge and 50.81 EV per 100, making this the strongest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cody Williams	2	4	4	0%	0%
Elijah Harkless	2	4	4	100%	100%
Ace Bailey	2	3	4	50%	50%
Bez Mbeng	1	3	2	100%	100%
John Konchar	1	2	4	67%	67%

pointsUNDER 22.568%MEDIUM

He is averaging 13.9 PPG on the season and 15.2 over his last 20, so 22.5 is a steep ask despite the hot last-5 stretch. His 11 PPG in 9 games vs Utah and the opponent's 124.78 defensive rating support the under.

reboundsUNDER 3.561%MEDIUM

Grimes' season rebound mean is 3.71, and the market line of 3.5 is close to fair. His last-5 rebounding is 4.2, but the sample is small and his vs-opponent rebound average is 2.888888888888889.

assistsUNDER 4.574%HIGH

His season assist mean is 3.43 and last-10 is 3.0, both below 4.5. The value data also points to UNDER with a 24.0% edge and 50.81 EV per 100 on DraftKings.

threesUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.79 threes per game on the season and 1.2 over his last 5, which is below this line. The recent volume is not strong enough to justify an over, especially with Utah's three suppression listed at 1.378.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season and 1.0 over his last 5, so a 0.5 line is reasonable to clear. This is a lower-confidence over because steals are volatile.

blocksUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

His season blocks mean is 0.4 and last-10 is 0.2, both below the 0.5 threshold. He has not shown consistent block production.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.27 and last-10 is 1.2, below 1.5. The combined category is still too volatile to trust an over.

turnoversUNDER 256%MEDIUM

He is at 1.7 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.0 over the last 10, making this a near-fair line. Without a sportsbook number, the season trend leans slightly under.

prUNDER 17.562%MEDIUM

His season P+R baseline is 17.6, and the current scoring line is already aggressive relative to that profile. The elevated recent scoring creates some over risk, but season-level production still points slightly under.

paUNDER 17.567%MEDIUM

His season P+A is 17.29, and his assist profile is not strong enough to pair cleanly with a 22.5-point expectation. The value market also favors assist unders across multiple books.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS