AI Model:

Bruce Brown▼

DEN · SG

PPG

7.6

RPG

3.8

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

8.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.0

7.6

8.6

RPG-1.4

3.8

2.4

APG-0.9

2.1

1.2

SPG-0.8

1.0

0.2

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

OVER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

7.5

UTA

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs UTA: 4 pts

LAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs LAL: 8 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 7 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 4 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 7 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 6 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 12 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 12 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 1 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 12 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 7.5STAKE

54%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

63%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

68%

3PM

OVER 0.5

58%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

52%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

82%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

67%

UNDER 2

69%

P+R

UNDER 11.5STAKE

66%

P+A

UNDER 9.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.4

8.3

RPG

3.3

3.2

APG

1.8

2.1

vs POR (H2H)9 games

PPG

9.3

RPG

3.9

APG

1.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Reed Sheppard	4	15	39%	-18.9%	medium
Naz Reid	4	11	55%	-1.2%	medium
Brandin Podziemski	4	7	67%	+20.0%	medium
Kevin Durant	4	7	29%

Bruce Brown’s role looks stable, but the box-score ceiling is modest

Bruce Brown comes in with a season line of 7.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists in 24.7 minutes, but his recent form has softened with last-5 usage down to 19.4 minutes and a down trend overall. The matchup is not especially inviting for scoring, with opponent scoring suppression at 0.424 and three-point suppression at 0.804, while his last-10 scoring sits at 7.3 PPG. He has produced 9.333333333333334 PPG in 9 games vs this opponent, which is above his season average, but his recent game log shows inconsistent output and lower playmaking. Given the lower minutes trend and the over-bias warning, the safer angle is leaning under on elevated combo lines while being cautious around his lower point total.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.6(→ from 7.6)

RPG

2.4(↓ from 3.8)

APG

1.2(↓ from 2.1)

STL+BLK

0.6(↓ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is provided. The opponent context is more useful here: scoring suppression is 0.424 and three-point suppression is 0.804, which modestly works against Bruce Brown’s scoring and perimeter volume.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Bruce Brown▼	Points	7.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	13	✓
Bruce Brown▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	3	✓
Bruce Brown▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	3	✗
Bruce Brown▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Bruce Brown▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	0	✗
Bruce Brown▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	—	80%	1	✗
Bruce Brown▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Bruce Brown▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	100%	0	✓
Bruce Brown▼	P+R	11.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	16	✗
Bruce Brown▼	P+A	9.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	16	✗

ML Scout Analysis

FTA2UNDER41%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)3/2015%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

PRA11.5OVER9%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

P+R11UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

P+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

PTS7UNDER31%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB3UNDER31%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

AST1UNDER8%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PA2UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM1UNDER22%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Bruce Brown

Assists UNDER 2.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest edge in the data because his season average is 2.1 assists, but his last-5 is only 1.2 and last-10 is 1.7. With recent minutes down to 19.4 and no teammate-absence boost provided, the under has the most stable support.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jrue Holiday	4	6	8	43%	57%
Deni Avdija	4	4	9	20%	30%
Matisse Thybulle	3	3	0	0%	0%
Scoot Henderson	2	3	0	0%	0%
Kris Murray	4	2	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 7.554%MEDIUM

His season mean is 7.63 points and his last-5 is 8.6, both near this line, while he has scored 9.333333333333334 PPG in 9 games vs this opponent. Confidence stays modest because his minutes have dipped to 19.4 in the last 5 and the matchup environment is not ideal for scoring.

reboundsUNDER 3.563%MEDIUM

Bruce Brown is averaging 3.79 rebounds on the season but only 2.4 over the last 5 and 2.7 over the last 10. With recent minutes down to 19.4 and his away/home splits not showing a strong rebound spike, the under is the safer side.

assistsUNDER 2.568%MEDIUM

He averages 2.1 assists for the season, but just 1.2 over the last 5 and 1.7 over the last 10. The recent decline in minutes and playmaking makes it hard to trust an over at 2.5.

threesOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.67 threes per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, with 1.1 fg3m per game over the last 20. The recent three-point volume is enough to justify a slight lean over, but the season baseline keeps confidence moderate.

stealsOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 steals on the season and 1.1 over the last 20, which supports a positive steals outlook. Still, his last-5 steal rate is only 0.2, so this is a thin edge.

blocksUNDER 0.582%HIGH

He averages only 0.2 blocks per game on the season, well below a half-block line. Even with a few recent blocks, the season profile strongly points under.

stocksUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.24 and last-5 is just 0.6, both below a 1.5 threshold. The variance is also relatively high, so the under is the more reliable side.

turnoversUNDER 269%MEDIUM

He is at 1.3 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.0 over the last 5, which is below a 2.0 line. His role is not large enough to project frequent turnover volume.

prUNDER 11.566%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds total is 11.42, essentially matching the line, but recent form is lighter with 8.6 points and 2.4 rebounds over the last 5. The combination prop is risky, and the lower recent minutes push it under.

paUNDER 9.564%MEDIUM

He averages 9.7 points plus assists on the season, but recent production has dipped with 8.6 points and 1.2 assists over the last 5. Since combo props are higher-variance, the season baseline plus recent decline favor the under.

timelineOVER 7.5 PTS