Nuggets has matchup advantages
Denver comes in 43-28 on a 1-game streak, while Portland is 35-36 and has won 3 straight. Both teams are on 2 days of rest and neither is on a back-to-back, so the main angle is role/usage with Portland still missing Damian Lillard and Shaedon Sharpe.
He is still doing everything for Denver with 34.8 MPG on the season and 36.6 MPG over the last 5, but his scoring has dipped to 22.8 PPG over the last 5 from 28.1 PPG season-long. Against Portland he has produced 27.11111111111111 PPG, 10.38888888888889 RPG, and 8.5 APG in 18 games, so the fantasy floor remains massive even if the recent points trend is lower.
Murray is carrying a 35 MPG role and has 27.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 7.1 APG in away games, which fits this road spot. His last 5 is down to 21.2 PPG but his assists have stayed at 7.0 APG, and he has 21.692307692307693 PPG, 4.923076923076923 RPG, and 6.923076923076923 APG in 13 games against Portland.
Gordon has been steady at 27.3 MPG season-long and 26.4 MPG over the last 5, with the rebound profile staying close to his 6.04 season mean. His away scoring is 17.5 PPG versus 13.1 PPG at home, but his 12.944444444444445 PPG, 4.944444444444445 RPG, and 3.111111111111111 APG across 18 games against Portland point to a lower-output historical matchup.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | Trend | Edge | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donovan Clingan▼ POR | Points | 13.5fanduel | UNDER | 67%HIGH | 40% | +12.4% | 18 | ✗ |
Deni Avdija▼ POR | Points | 24.5fanduel | UNDER | 83%HIGH | 70% | +27.2% | 23 | ✓ |
Jrue Holiday▼ POR | Assists | 6.5fanduel | OVER | 50%MEDIUM | 50% | +0.7% | 3 | ✗ |
Christian Braun▼ DEN | Points | 11.5fanduel | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 50% | +6.6% | 15 | ✓ |
Aaron Gordon▼ DEN | Rebounds | 5.5fanduel | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 40% | +6.2% | 3 | ✗ |
4 models · 15 props compared
Props Shown
15
15 total on slate
Models
4
1 game view
Unanimous
15
Full agreement across submitted picks
This is the cleanest value on the board: 24.26 season PPG but only 18.3 PPG over the last 10, against a 24.5 line. The 27.2% edge and 48.43 EV per $100 are the strongest numbers in the slate.
Even with his recent surge, the full-season mean is 12.43 points and the line is 13.5. The under has a 12.4% edge and his production is still driven by a relatively modest 16.94 MPG season role.
Braun’s role has expanded to 34.4 MPG over the last 5 and he has posted 16.4 PPG in that span. The over is supported by a 6.6% edge and 12.0 EV per $100.
The two Portland unders lean on both recent regression and market inflation, while Braun’s over captures Denver’s recent role expansion. This combines a pair of conservative under positions with one usage-driven over from the Nuggets side.
Jerami Grant is Questionable with Injury/Illness-LeftFoot, which is the main injury item to monitor. Damian Lillard and Shaedon Sharpe are Out, and Caleb Love is Out, all of which keep Portland’s offensive burden concentrated on Avdija, Holiday, and Clingan.
Johnson’s last 5 scoring is up to 15.4 PPG from a 11.7 PPG season mean, but his trend is marked down and his home scoring sits at 10.3 PPG. The recent jump is real, yet his season-long production and 30.5 MPG baseline make the points market more fragile than the hot streak suggests.
Hardaway is at 14.1 PPG on the season and 12.8 PPG over the last 5, so he is fairly aligned with his normal scoring range. The standout recent line is 7.0 made threes on 10 attempts in his most recent game, but the broader sample still points to a volatile shooter with 2.88 season threes made and 2.51 over the last 5.
Avdija is Portland’s primary engine with 33.7 MPG season-long and 34.4 MPG over the last 5, plus 24.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 6.7 APG on the year. The usage is high enough to support multiple stat paths, but his 5.0 turnovers over the last 5 are a concern and his scoring is still well above his 18.3 PPG last 10 baseline.
Holiday is producing 16.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 6.3 APG for the season with 29.2 MPG, and his last 5 have been more assist-driven at 7.0 APG. His scoring is lighter than the season average at 13.6 PPG over the last 5, but the minutes and playmaking volume remain intact.
Clingan has been trending sharply up with 19.0 PPG, 13.2 RPG, and 2.8 BPG over the last 5, well above his 12.4 PPG season average. His rebounding floor is strong at 11.7 RPG on the season, and the recent 28.6 MPG stretch supports the upside in boards and blocks.
Grant is listed as Questionable with a left foot injury, which is the biggest volatility point in Portland’s player pool. When active he brings 18.7 PPG on the season and 18.4 PPG over the last 20, but the last 5 have dipped to 15.0 PPG, so the current health status matters more than the scoring trend.