Trail Blazers vs Nuggets — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

POR

Trail Blazers

35-36 | L10: 6-4

DEN

Nuggets

43-28 | L10: 6-4

2026-03-22

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

POR77%

24%DEN

POR81-98DEN

Key Factors

*Trail Blazers without Shaedon Sharpe (21.2 PPG) - out ()
*Trail Blazers without Jerami Grant (18.7 PPG) - questionable (Foot)
*Nuggets without Peyton Watson (14.5 PPG) - questionable (Hamstring)
*Trail Blazers without Caleb Love (11.1 PPG) - out ()
*Nuggets has positional advantages with deeper rotation (237.7 vs 190.3 depth)

Key Matchup

Nuggets has matchup advantages

DEN Advantages

+ Positional advantages
+ Better roster depth

Key Defensive Matchups

POR Players

Robert Williams III

Nikola Jokić4g · 13m+0.0%38% eFGmedium

Aaron Gordon3g · 2m+0.0%125% eFGmedium

Jamal Murray4g · 2m+0.0%50% eFGmedium

Matisse Thybulle

Jamal Murray3g · 6m+0.0%50% eFGmedium

Tim Hardaway Jr.2g · 4m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Denver comes in 43-28 on a 1-game streak, while Portland is 35-36 and has won 3 straight. Both teams are on 2 days of rest and neither is on a back-to-back, so the main angle is role/usage with Portland still missing Damian Lillard and Shaedon Sharpe.

Team Comparison

PORDEN

Key Players

He is still doing everything for Denver with 34.8 MPG on the season and 36.6 MPG over the last 5, but his scoring has dipped to 22.8 PPG over the last 5 from 28.1 PPG season-long. Against Portland he has produced 27.11111111111111 PPG, 10.38888888888889 RPG, and 8.5 APG in 18 games, so the fantasy floor remains massive even if the recent points trend is lower.

ProjectedPTS: 17.5-24.1-30.7REB: 9.8-12.8-15.8AST: 8.5-10.9-13.3

Murray is carrying a 35 MPG role and has 27.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 7.1 APG in away games, which fits this road spot. His last 5 is down to 21.2 PPG but his assists have stayed at 7.0 APG, and he has 21.692307692307693 PPG, 4.923076923076923 RPG, and 6.923076923076923 APG in 13 games against Portland.

ProjectedPTS: 15.3-21.9-28.5REB: 1.8-4.8-7.8AST: 4.7-7.1-9.5

Gordon has been steady at 27.3 MPG season-long and 26.4 MPG over the last 5, with the rebound profile staying close to his 6.04 season mean. His away scoring is 17.5 PPG versus 13.1 PPG at home, but his 12.944444444444445 PPG, 4.944444444444445 RPG, and 3.111111111111111 APG across 18 games against Portland point to a lower-output historical matchup.

ProjectedPTS: 8.5-15.1-21.7REB: 2.9-5.9-8.9AST: 0-2.3-4.7

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Donovan Clingan▼ POR	Points	13.5fanduel	UNDER	67%HIGH	40%	+12.4%	18	✗
Deni Avdija▼ POR	Points	24.5fanduel	UNDER	83%HIGH	70%	+27.2%	23	✓
Jrue Holiday▼ POR	Assists	6.5fanduel	OVER	50%MEDIUM	50%	+0.7%	3	✗
Christian Braun▼ DEN	Points	11.5fanduel	OVER	58%MEDIUM	50%	+6.6%	15	✓
Aaron Gordon▼ DEN	Rebounds	5.5fanduel	OVER	56%MEDIUM	40%	+6.2%	3	✗

Model Comparison

4 models · 15 props compared

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Props Shown

15 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Deni Avdija

Points UNDER 24.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board: 24.26 season PPG but only 18.3 PPG over the last 10, against a 24.5 line. The 27.2% edge and 48.43 EV per $100 are the strongest numbers in the slate.

Donovan Clingan

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

Even with his recent surge, the full-season mean is 12.43 points and the line is 13.5. The under has a 12.4% edge and his production is still driven by a relatively modest 16.94 MPG season role.

Christian Braun

Points OVER 11.5MEDIUM

Braun’s role has expanded to 34.4 MPG over the last 5 and he has posted 16.4 PPG in that span. The over is supported by a 6.6% edge and 12.0 EV per $100.

Parlay of the Game

Deni Avdija — Points UNDER 24.5Leg 1

Donovan Clingan — Points UNDER 13.5Leg 2

Christian Braun — Points OVER 11.5Leg 3

The two Portland unders lean on both recent regression and market inflation, while Braun’s over captures Denver’s recent role expansion. This combines a pair of conservative under positions with one usage-driven over from the Nuggets side.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Jerami Grant is Questionable with Injury/Illness-LeftFoot, which is the main injury item to monitor. Damian Lillard and Shaedon Sharpe are Out, and Caleb Love is Out, all of which keep Portland’s offensive burden concentrated on Avdija, Holiday, and Clingan.