Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gobert | 4 | 32 | 50% | -1.8% | medium |
| Maxime Raynaud | 3 | 17 | 48% | -6.3% | medium |
| Steven Adams | 3 | 15 | 80% | +28.2% | medium |
| Nikola Jokić | 4 | 15 | 70% |
Donovan Clingan enters with an upward trend, posting 15.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG, and 2.7 APG over his last 10 compared with season marks of 12.4, 11.7, and 2.2. The biggest concern is points inflation: his last 5 at 19.0 PPG is well above his season average, and the value data still shows the best side on UNDER 13.5 points across multiple books. Rebounds are much steadier, with season 11.7 RPG, last 10 at 12.5 RPG, and recent minutes holding near 26-28, giving him a stronger floor than his scoring. Against this opponent, he has averaged 12.2 PPG, 10.6 RPG, and 1.0 APG in 5 games, which supports a more conservative scoring outlook than his recent hot stretch.
The opponent data shows a 116.74 defensive rating and 100 pace, while his head-to-head line is 12.2 PPG, 10.6 RPG, and 1.0 APG in 5 games. key defender matchup data exists, but the provided data does not support isolating a single defender impact from the listed names and minutes.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donovan Clingan▼ | Points | 13.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 40% | 18 | ✗ |
Donovan Clingan▼ | Rebounds | 11.5 | OVER | 59%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 13 | ✓ |
Donovan Clingan▼ | Assists | 2.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
Donovan Clingan▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 4 | ✗ |
Donovan Clingan▼ | Blocks | 1.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
Donovan Clingan▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 66%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
Donovan Clingan▼ | PRA | 27.5 | OVER | 50%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 32 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest value on the board: multiple books show the best side as UNDER 13.5, including a 12.4% edge at betmgm and 7.7% at draftkings. His season average is 12.4 PPG, and the recent 19.0 PPG in the last 5 is hot enough to expect regression rather than continued overshooting.
| medium |
| Draymond Green | 4 | 14 | 50% | -10.6% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokić | 4 | 15 | 46 | 59% | 70% |
| Jonas Valančiūnas | 3 | 6 | 17 | 67% | 71% |
| Aaron Gordon | 3 | 6 | 16 | 55% | 73% |
| Jamal Murray | 4 | 2 | 5 | 33% | 42% |
| Christian Braun | 4 | 2 | 8 | 50% | 75% |
His season mean is 12.4 PPG, and the value data shows strong UNDER support at 13.5 with a 12.4% edge at betmgm and 7.7% at draftkings. The last 5 at 19.0 PPG is a clear hot streak, but it is 53.2% above season average, so regression risk is high.
Rebounds are the steadiest part of his profile: 11.7 season RPG, 12.5 over the last 10, and 13.2 over the last 5. The only caution is that the edge is small, so this is more of a thin lean than a high-confidence play.
He is averaging 2.2 APG on the season and 2.7 over the last 10, with 3.0 over the last 5. The line is modest, and his recent playmaking stretch plus teammate absences keep this in range.
He averages 1.05 threes per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, but the 1.5 line is still above his usual volume. Since the value data also lists UNDER as the best side, the under is the safer angle.
He averages 1.6 blocks per game on the season and 2.3 over the last 10, with 2.8 over the last 5. That level of rim protection makes 1.5 a reachable threshold even with normal variance.
His season stocks average is 2.18 and his last 10 is 3.1, so the combined defensive stats are clearly above the minimum meaningful volume threshold. The recent 3.8 stocks over the last 5 adds support, though the variance is still notable.
His season PRA is 26.3 using the provided season means, while the last 10 profile is stronger at 30.7. Because combo props carry more variance and his recent scoring has been volatile, this stays closer to a coin flip.