AI Model:

Cameron Johnson▼

DEN · SF

PPG

11.7

RPG

3.8

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

15.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.7

11.7

15.4

RPG+0.6

3.8

4.4

APG-0.3

2.3

2.0

SPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

OKC

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs OKC: 7 pts

MIN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIN: 0 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 10 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 6 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 17 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 15 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 18 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 20 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 6 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5FANDUEL

60%

REB

OVER 3.5FANDUEL

66%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

52%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

64%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

UNDER 2

62%

P+A

OVER 12.5FANDUEL

57%

P+R

UNDER 14.5FANDUEL

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.3

13.0

RPG

3.5

4.3

APG

2.7

2.2

vs POR (H2H)13 games

PPG

11.8

RPG

3.5

APG

2.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	27	53%	-8.6%	medium
Russell Westbrook	4	13	63%	+2.5%	medium
Naji Marshall	3	12	50%	-4.6%	medium
Julian Champagnie	3	10	83%

Johnson’s volume is steady, but the market leans too high on scoring

Cameron Johnson has been a stable rotation piece with season marks of 11.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 2.3 APG over 30.5 MPG, but his trend is listed as down and his last-10 scoring is exactly 11.7. The last-5 has jumped to 15.4 PPG and 32.2 MPG, yet that’s well above his season baseline and the recent game log shows a 6-point outing mixed in with bigger nights. Against this opponent he has averaged 11.77 PPG, 3.46 RPG, and 2.23 APG across 13 games, so the matchup history points more to a modest all-around line than an explosion. With no back-to-back spot and no specific defender matchup data, the best edge comes from staying conservative on points while leaning into the more reliable rebound and assist spots.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.4(↑ from 11.7)

RPG

4.4(↑ from 3.8)

APG

2.0(↓ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

Key defender matchup data is limited, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. The broader opponent profile shows a 117.19 defensive rating with 0.424 scoring suppression and 0.804 three suppression, which supports a cautious scoring outlook.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Cameron Johnson▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	19	✗
Cameron Johnson▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Cameron Johnson▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	5	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✗
Cameron Johnson▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	90%	0	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	P+A	12.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	22	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	21	✗

ML Scout Analysis

FTM2UNDER46%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)5/2025%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

PTS13OVER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x7/2035%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

3PM2UNDER6%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PA4UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA19OVER30%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB4OVER3%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

AST3OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)4/2020%▼

Featured Pick

Cameron Johnson

Rebounds OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board because his season average is 3.8 RPG, his last-10 is 4.2 RPG, and the best available value line shows a 0.072 edge on the over at 3.5. The role, recent form, and line all line up better here than on his points prop, where the recent spike creates more regression risk.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jrue Holiday	4	6	6	20%	30%
Kris Murray	3	6	0	0%	0%
Jerami Grant	2	6	2	50%	50%
Deni Avdija	4	6	18	70%	75%
Matisse Thybulle	3	6	3	25%	38%

pointsUNDER 10.560%MEDIUM

His season average is 11.7 PPG, but the available value markets still make the under the better side with the best listed edge at 0.044 and our projected under probability at 0.544. The recent 15.4 PPG last-5 is above his baseline and should be treated cautiously.

reboundsOVER 3.566%MEDIUM

He averages 3.8 RPG on the season and 4.2 RPG over the last 10, with a home mean of 3.5 and an away mean of 4.0. The best available value data shows a 0.072 edge on the over at 3.5.

assistsOVER 1.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 2.33 APG and his last-10 is 2.4 APG, so 1.5 is a low bar relative to his typical role. The best value entry shows a 0.072 edge on the over.

threesOVER 1.552%MEDIUM

He averages 1.89 made threes per game on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, both above 1.5. Confidence is kept moderate because the variance is meaningful and the value table does not show a strong edge.

blocksUNDER 0.564%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.4 BPG on the season, which is below the 0.5 line. With limited block volume, the under is the safer side.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.02 and recent average is 1.3, still below 1.5. This is a high-variance category, so the under is preferable at a line above his typical output.

turnoversUNDER 262%MEDIUM

He has 1.0 turnovers per game in the last 10 and 0.7 over the last 20, which sits comfortably below 2.0. His role does not suggest enough ball-handling volume to push this over consistently.

paOVER 12.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is supported by 11.7 PPG and 2.3 APG, and the sportsbook line sits near that combined baseline. This is a workable over but not a strong one because scoring can swing his result.

prUNDER 14.556%MEDIUM

His season points and rebounds total to 15.5, but the last-5 scoring spike is offset by a recent 6-point game and his overall trend is down. Given the historical bias against overs, the under is the more conservative call.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS