AI Model:

Matisse Thybulle—

POR · G

PPG

4.7

RPG

1.7

APG

0.8

L5 PPG

5.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.7

4.7

5.4

RPG+0.3

1.7

2.0

APG+0.2

0.8

1.0

SPG-0.2

1.8

1.6

BPG+0.1

0.5

0.6

UNDER 4.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

4.5

ATL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ATL: 7 pts

MEM

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MEM: 0 pts

HOU

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs HOU: 5 pts

IND

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs IND: 0 pts

CHA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHA: 3 pts

UTA

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs UTA: 6 pts

PHI

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs PHI: 5 pts

BKN

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BKN: 5 pts

IND

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs IND: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MIN: 5 pts

Over 4.5

Under 4.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 4.5

61%

REB

OVER 1.5

55%

AST

OVER 0.5

57%

3PM

UNDER 1

58%

STL

OVER 1.5

66%

BLK

OVER 0.5

54%

STL+BLK

OVER 2

63%

UNDER 0.5

74%

PRA

UNDER 7

60%

P+A

UNDER 5.5

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

6.4

4.5

RPG

1.8

1.9

APG

1.0

0.8

vs DEN (H2H)8 games

PPG

4.9

RPG

2.5

APG

1.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jamal Murray	3	6	50%	-5.0%	medium
Darius Garland	1	4	33%	-11.7%	low
Tim Hardaway Jr.	2	4	0%	-45.0%	low
Christian Braun	3	3	100%

Stocks floor remains strong, but scoring upside is capped

Matisse Thybulle is producing a steady defensive line with season averages of 4.7 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 0.8 APG, 1.8 SPG, and 0.5 BPG across 12.7 MPG. His recent form is stable: the last 5 games show 5.4 PPG and 2.2 stocks, while the last 10 sit at 4.2 PPG and 2.4 stocks, so there is no major spike to chase on offense. The matchup is not ideal for points because the Nuggets allow a 116.74 defensive rating environment with 0.323 scoring suppression, though his defensive event rates remain usable. With teammate absences including Caleb Love, Damian Lillard, and Shaedon Sharpe, minutes can stay supported, but his low-usage role still points more to steals/blocks than scoring.

Stat Trends

PPG

5.4(↑ from 4.7)

SPG

1.6(↓ from 1.8)

Stocks

2.2(↓ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The Nuggets context is tougher for scoring, with a 116.74 defensive rating and 0.323 scoring suppression, while his defensive stats remain the more reliable source of production.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Matisse Thybulle▼	Points	4.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	3	✓
Matisse Thybulle▼	Rebounds	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	3	✓
Matisse Thybulle▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Matisse Thybulle▼	3PM	1	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	1	✗
Matisse Thybulle▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	3	✓
Matisse Thybulle▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Matisse Thybulle▼	STL+BLK	2	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	30%	3	✓
Matisse Thybulle▼	Turnovers	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	30%	1	✗
Matisse Thybulle▼	PRA	7	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	7	✗
Matisse Thybulle▼	P+A	5.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	4	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x6/1932%▼

R+A3.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x8/1942%▼

P+R9UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x5/1926%▼

PTS5OVER5%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x8/1942%▼

AST1OVER4%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x6/1932%▼

STL2UNDER38%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)7/1937%▼

PRA8OVER15%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x8/1942%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

REB2UNDER0%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)9/1947%▼

3PM1OVER5%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x6/1932%▼

3PA3UNDER12%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Matisse Thybulle

Steals OVER 1.5MEDIUM

This is the strongest fit for his season profile, with 1.8 steals per game and 2.4 stocks in recent samples. The line is still a bit volatile, but his defensive activity gives this the best blend of role and recent production.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jamal Murray	3	6	7	40%	50%
Tim Hardaway Jr.	2	4	0	0%	0%
Christian Braun	3	3	2	100%	100%
Bruce Brown	3	3	0	0%	0%
Cameron Johnson	3	2	5	67%	83%

pointsUNDER 4.561%MEDIUM

His season mean is 4.74 PPG and the last 10 are 4.2, so 4.5 is a fair number with limited scoring upside. Denver's 0.323 scoring suppression also leans against an over.

reboundsOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.68 rebounds on the season and 1.9 in away games, which is enough to shade over a modest 1.5 line. The role is still low-volume, so confidence stays moderate.

assistsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

His season mean is 0.84 APG and last 10 are 0.9 APG, so a half-assist line is below his typical output. Even with variance, this is one of his safer overs.

threesUNDER 158%MEDIUM

He averages 1.05 threes per game and exactly 1.0 in away games, so there is not much cushion above a 1.0 line. The last 10 also sit at 1.0, making the under slightly preferable in a conservative read.

stealsOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 1.8 steals per game and 2.4 stocks recently, which supports an over on a modest line. His defensive involvement is the clearest part of his profile.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 blocks season-long and 0.7 over the last 10, so a half-block line is reachable. The volume is still volatile, so confidence is limited.

stocksOVER 263%MEDIUM

His season average of 2.32 stocks and recent 2.4 stocks both clear this line. This is the best combo-style category for his profile, though the variance is still real.

turnoversUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He averages only 0.7 turnovers over the last 10 and 0.7 across the season. With such low offensive creation, the under is the cleaner side.

praUNDER 760%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to just 7.2 PRA, and recent form is similar at 7.2 across the last 10. Because combo props are higher-variance, this is better approached from the under side.

paUNDER 5.562%MEDIUM

Points plus assists project near 5.6 on season averages, but his scoring is the more likely drag. That makes the under slightly preferable unless minutes spike materially.

timelineUNDER 4.5 PTS