AI Model:

Robert Williams III▼

POR · C

PPG

6.7

RPG

7.0

APG

1.1

L5 PPG

5.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.1

6.7

5.6

RPG+3.2

7.0

10.2

APG-0.3

1.1

0.8

SPG-0.6

0.6

0.0

BPG+0.3

1.5

1.8

UNDER 6.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

6.5

PHX

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs PHX: 4 pts

CHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs CHI: 14 pts

CHA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs CHA: 5 pts

MEM

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MEM: 20 pts

HOU

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs HOU: 8 pts

IND

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs IND: 12 pts

CHA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHA: 6 pts

PHI

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs PHI: 6 pts

IND

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs IND: 2 pts

MIN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MIN: 2 pts

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 6.5

66%

REB

OVER 7

68%

AST

UNDER 1

71%

BLK

OVER 1.5

64%

STL+BLK

OVER 2

63%

OVER 1

58%

PRA

UNDER 14.5

62%

P+R

OVER 13.5

60%

OVER 0.5

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.8

6.9

RPG

7.8

8.7

APG

1.6

0.8

vs DEN (H2H)8 games

PPG

6.9

RPG

7.3

APG

1.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nikola Jokić	4	13	38%	-35.9%	medium
Dylan Cardwell	2	8	100%	+28.8%	low
Andre Drummond	2	6	20%	-51.2%	low
Ryan Kalkbrenner	1	5	50%

Rebounding and stocks give Robert Williams a strong floor

Robert Williams III is trending up in the areas that matter most for his role, with 9.5 rebounds and 2.8 stocks over his last 10 games while averaging 20.0 minutes. His season scoring mark is just 6.7 PPG, and his last-5 scoring has dipped to 5.6, so points look less reliable than his defensive production. The matchup history is modest at 6.875 PPG and 7.25 RPG in 8 games against this opponent, which keeps the projection grounded. With three teammate absences on Portland, his minutes and rebound chances remain supported, but the scoring ceiling is still limited.

Stat Trends

PPG

5.6(↓ from 6.7)

RPG

10.2(↑ from 7.0)

BPG

1.8(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

The provided key defender data includes Nikola Jokić, Christian Braun, and Aaron Gordon, but there is no specific defender matchup data to isolate. Denver’s defense context shows a 116.74 defensive rating and 100 pace, while the opponent suppresses scoring by 0.323, which slightly dampens the scoring outlook.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Robert Williams III▼	Points	6.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	16	✗
Robert Williams III▼	Rebounds	7	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	5	✗
Robert Williams III▼	Assists	1	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	70%	1	✗
Robert Williams III▼	Blocks	1.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Robert Williams III▼	STL+BLK	2	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Robert Williams III▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Robert Williams III▼	PRA	14.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	22	✗
Robert Williams III▼	P+R	13.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	21	✓
Robert Williams III▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+A8UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%▼

PRA14.5UNDER8%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

P+R15UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 6x7/2035%▼

PTS6UNDER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x6/2030%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB6.5OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

BLK1.5UNDER13%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTA0.5UNDER14%gbtAvoid (7/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Robert Williams III

Rebounds OVER 7.0HIGH

His rebound form is the cleanest part of the profile: 7.0 RPG seasonally, 9.5 RPG over the last 10, and 10.2 RPG over the last 5. With recent minutes holding around 20.0 and teammate absences supporting opportunity, rebounds are the most dependable angle.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nikola Jokić	4	13	17	35%	38%
Aaron Gordon	3	2	5	100%	125%
Jamal Murray	4	2	3	33%	50%
Bruce Brown	3	1	0	0%	0%
Christian Braun	4	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 6.566%MEDIUM

His season average is 6.7 PPG, but the last-5 is only 5.6 and the recent game log shows several 2-6 point outings. The scoring profile is volatile, with a season standard deviation of 4.04, so the under is safer than chasing a modest over.

reboundsOVER 768%MEDIUM

He is averaging 7.0 RPG for the season and 9.5 RPG over his last 10 games, with 10.2 RPG over the last 5. Minutes have held near 20.0 recently, which supports another strong rebounding night.

assistsUNDER 171%HIGH

He has just 1.1 APG for the season and 0.7 APG over the last 10, with only 0.8 APG in the last 5. The role is not creating enough playmaking volume to trust an over.

blocksOVER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season mark is 1.5 BPG and he has 2.0 BPG over the last 10, with multiple recent games at 2+ blocks. The block floor remains one of his clearest strengths.

stocksOVER 263%MEDIUM

He averages 2.15 stocks on the season and 2.8 over the last 10, with 2.5 over the last 20. The category has enough combined steal/block production to lean over despite some variance.

turnoversOVER 158%MEDIUM

He is at 1.2 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.3 over his away split, with recent games including several 2+ turnover outings. The line is low enough that mild usage can push him over.

praUNDER 14.562%MEDIUM

His season PRA profile is driven mostly by rebounds and blocks, but scoring is muted at 6.7 PPG and assists sit at 1.1 APG. Given the over-bias caution on combo props, the under is the more conservative side.

prOVER 13.560%MEDIUM

He combines 6.7 PPG with 7.0 RPG for a season average of 13.7 PR, and his recent rebounding spike helps offset the lower scoring. This is a tighter combo, but the rebound form gives it a path over.

double_doubleOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He has legitimate double-double potential because rebounds are regularly near or above 10 while points can get into the 10-12 range, as seen on 2026-03-08 and 2026-03-04. It is still a volatile outcome, so confidence stays moderate.

timelineUNDER 6.5 PTS