AI Model:

Christian Braun▲

DEN · SG

PPG

11.6

RPG

4.9

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

16.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.8

11.6

16.4

RPG+0.3

4.9

5.2

APG+0.1

2.9

3.0

SPG+0.7

0.7

1.4

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

UTA

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs UTA: 11 pts

LAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs LAL: 15 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 7 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 4 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 19 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 11 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 12 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 22 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 26 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 11 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

REB

OVER 4.5FANDUEL

60%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

66%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

PRA

OVER 18.5FANDUEL

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.3

12.6

RPG

5.2

6.0

APG

3.1

3.5

vs POR (H2H)13 games

PPG

9.5

RPG

4.5

APG

2.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Deni Avdija	4	20	50%	-1.5%	medium
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	2	19	57%	+1.8%	low
Luka Dončić	2	18	57%	-1.5%	low
Brandin Podziemski	4	15	50%

Braun’s role is stable, but the market still leans to the under on points

Christian Braun is in solid form, with his last 5 scoring at 16.4 PPG versus a season mark of 11.6, while his last 10 and last 20 remain elevated at 13.8 and 13.4. He’s also playing heavy minutes, sitting at 32.0 MPG for the season and 33.9 MPG over the last 10, which keeps his floor intact for rebounds and assists. The best value in the data is still on his points under 11.5, because the season baseline is much lower than the recent surge and the value model shows clear under edge. His assist and rebound props are more balanced, but the combo markets carry extra variance and should be treated more cautiously.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.4(↑ from 11.6)

RPG

5.2(→ from 4.9)

APG

3.0(→ from 2.9)

SPG

1.4(↑ from 0.7)

Key Matchup

Portland’s defense is listed with a 117.19 defensive rating, a 100 pace, and a 0.424 scoring suppression mark. No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders, so the main note is that Braun’s scoring comes against a defense that is not an easy suppressor by the provided numbers.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Christian Braun▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	15	✗
Christian Braun▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2	✗
Christian Braun▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	6	✓
Christian Braun▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	1	✓
Christian Braun▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Christian Braun▼	PRA	18.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	23	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS12.5OVER26%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA21.5OVER13%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

P+R19.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

REB5.5UNDER30%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST2.5OVER2%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A16.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

3PM1OVER16%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2UNDER40%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A8UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

3PA3UNDER26%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

FTA2UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Christian Braun

Points UNDER 11.5HIGH

This is the cleanest +EV angle in the data: the model gives the under an 8.3% edge at BetMGM and 15.5 EV per 100, with similar support across other books at 11.5. Braun’s season average is 11.6 PPG, but the recent 16.4 PPG run is likely to cool relative to the longer sample.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Deni Avdija	4	20	23	50%	50%
Jrue Holiday	4	10	2	33%	33%
Scoot Henderson	2	4	9	50%	75%
Toumani Camara	3	3	8	60%	80%
Donovan Clingan	4	2	10	57%	64%

pointsUNDER 11.569%MEDIUM

Season mean is 11.6 PPG, and the value data shows the UNDER as the best side at this line with an 8.3% edge and 15.5 EV per 100. His recent 16.4 PPG is a clear hot streak, but that sits well above the season baseline and is vulnerable to regression.

assistsOVER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.9 APG on the season and 3.3 APG over the last 10, with the value model showing the OVER as the best side at 6.8% edge. The line is only 2.5, so even a modest playmaking night clears it.

reboundsOVER 4.560%MEDIUM

Braun is at 4.9 RPG for the season and 5.4 RPG over the last 5, which supports the over on a 4.5 line. The edge is smaller than points or assists, so confidence should stay moderate.

threesUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 0.94 threes per game for the season and 1.4 over the last 5, but the season baseline still sits below this line. The recent spike is notable, yet the lower-volume profile makes the under more appealing overall.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.03, and even the recent 10-game mark is 1.1. That leaves him short of a true high-probability over profile at 1.5.

praOVER 18.555%MEDIUM

His combined production is supported by 11.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 2.9 APG, with recent minutes holding above 33 MPG. Combo props are volatile, though, so confidence stays only moderate.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS