Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Braun | 3 | 10 | 58% | +8.2% | medium |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 3 | 8 | 75% | +24.9% | medium |
| VJ Edgecombe | 2 | 7 | 20% | -21.8% | low |
| Javon Small | 2 | 5 | 50% |
Scoot Henderson is averaging 13.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, and 3.9 APG on 23.4 MPG, with recent form holding near that range but trending down overall. His last 5 games show 14.4 PPG and 3.2 APG, yet his last 10 and last 20 both sit below his season scoring average, and his turnover rate remains elevated at 2.5-3.0 per game. The matchup is not ideal: Denver’s opponent profile shows a 116.74 defensive rating and 0.323 scoring suppression, which supports a conservative scoring projection. With Damian Lillard, Shaedon Sharpe, and Caleb Love out, Scoot’s role is stable, but the value still leans more to the under on points than an aggressive over.
No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the opponent context shows a 116.74 defensive rating with 0.323 scoring suppression. That combination suggests a tougher scoring environment rather than an obvious target spot.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scoot Henderson▼ | Points | 13.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 13 | ✓ |
Scoot Henderson▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 3 | ✓ |
Scoot Henderson▼ | Assists | 3.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
Scoot Henderson▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 1 | ✓ |
Scoot Henderson▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 0 | ✓ |
Scoot Henderson▼ | Turnovers | 2.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 1 | ✗ |
Scoot Henderson▼ | P+A | 16.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 15 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest angle because the season mean is 13.5 PPG, last 10 is 14.0, and the away split drops to 10.8 PPG. The value board also strongly favors the under at 13.5, with multiple books showing meaningful negative EV on the over and the best side consistently listed as UNDER.
| low |
| Bones Hyland | 3 | 5 | 70% | +18.2% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Braun | 3 | 10 | 7 | 50% | 58% |
| Bruce Brown | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
| Cameron Johnson | 3 | 3 | 5 | 67% | 83% |
| Julian Strawther | 2 | 3 | 4 | 67% | 67% |
| Jamal Murray | 3 | 2 | 6 | 100% | 150% |
He is at 13.5 PPG for the season, while last 10 is 14.0 and last 20 is 13.2, so the recent range does not justify an over push. Denver’s 116.74 defensive rating and 0.323 scoring suppression make the under the cleaner side, especially with his trend marked down.
Scoot averages 2.8 RPG on the season and 3.0 RPG over the last 5, both above 2.5. The edge is modest, but the rebound number is low enough to support a small over despite his away average of 2.3.
His season average is 3.9 APG, but his last 10 is 3.1 and his away mark is 3.6, which is right around the line and not strong enough for an over. With a down trend and 2.5 turnovers per game recently, the under is safer on a variance-limited prop.
He averages 1.74 threes season-long, but the away split is only 1.2 and the line sits at 1.5. His last 5 is 2.0, yet the larger sample and away performance keep this close to a coin flip with slight under lean.
Scoot’s season stocks average is 0.89, with last 10 at 1.2 and last 20 at 0.8, which does not consistently clear 1.5. The recent spike is not enough to overcome the baseline volatility and lower season mean.
He is averaging 2.5 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.7 over the last 20, with multiple recent games at 3+ turnovers. That volume makes the over playable, though confidence is capped by his game-to-game volatility.
Points plus assists projects near his season baseline, but his recent scoring and assist trends are both below or near their averages. Because combo props are higher variance, the under is the more conservative side at this number.