AI Model:

Jerami Grant▲

POR · PF

PPG

18.7

RPG

3.6

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

15.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.7

18.7

15.0

RPG-0.2

3.6

3.4

APG-0.7

2.3

1.6

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

UNDER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

17.5

ATL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ATL: 4 pts

MEM

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MEM: 30 pts

HOU

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs HOU: 21 pts

IND

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs IND: 21 pts

CHA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHA: 24 pts

UTA

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs UTA: 9 pts

PHI

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs PHI: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BKN: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs IND: 8 pts

MIN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MIN: 26 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

OVER 3.5FANDUEL

56%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

53%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

55%

PRA

UNDER 22.5FANDUEL

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.5

18.3

RPG

3.4

3.5

APG

1.6

1.9

vs DEN (H2H)9 games

PPG

18.4

RPG

4.0

APG

2.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jimmy Butler III	3	12	67%	+21.2%	medium
Julius Randle	4	11	50%	-8.0%	medium
GG Jackson	3	10	45%	-9.1%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	10	90%

Grant’s scoring is capped, but assist value stands out

Jerami Grant is listed as questionable with a left foot injury, and his recent scoring has cooled to 15.0 PPG over the last 5 games versus 18.7 PPG on the season. The market reflects that dip: points are sitting at 17.5 across several books, while his assists prop is only 1.5 despite a season average of 2.3 and a strong last-10 trend of 2.0 APG. He has averaged 18.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 2.2 APG in 9 games vs this opponent, but the overall profile points more toward a modest line than a ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.0(↓ from 18.7)

RPG

3.4(→ from 3.6)

APG

1.6(↓ from 2.3)

Stocks

1.4(→ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to target. The opponent profile shows a 116.74 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 0.323 scoring suppression, which suggests a middling environment rather than an obvious boost.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Jerami Grant▼	Points	17.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Jerami Grant▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	30%
Jerami Grant▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	50%
Jerami Grant▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Jerami Grant▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%
Jerami Grant▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%
Jerami Grant▼	PRA	22.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	40%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS19.5UNDER21%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A19OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

AST1.5OVER3%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM2.5UNDER36%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R21OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

PRA23UNDER30%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

3PA6UNDER29%gbtAvoid (7/20)7/2035%▼

REB3UNDER14%gbt_reboundsAvoid (6/20)8/2040%▼

FTM2UNDER32%gbtAvoid (6/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER13%gbtAvoid (6/20)8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Jerami Grant

Assists OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board because his season average is 2.3 APG and his last-10 average is 2.0 APG, both above the line. The value prop data backs it with a 10.3% edge at DraftKings and 18.49 EV per 100 at Bovada, making it stronger than the scoring or combo markets.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nikola Jokić	2	4	6	67%	67%
Cameron Johnson	2	4	0	0%	0%
Christian Braun	2	3	3	33%	33%
Aaron Gordon	1	3	0	0%	0%
Jamal Murray	2	2	5	40%	50%

pointsUNDER 17.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 18.7 PPG, but the last 5 games are down to 15.0 and the best available book line is 17.5. With injury uncertainty and a recent dip, the under is the cleaner side.

reboundsOVER 3.556%MEDIUM

He averages 3.6 rebounds on the season, 3.5 over the last 10, and 3.4 over the last 5. The line is right near his typical output, but the value props data shows an OVER edge at 3.5.

assistsOVER 1.572%HIGH

He averages 2.3 assists on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, both comfortably above 1.5. Value data also shows a 10.3% edge on the OVER at DraftKings.

threesOVER 2.553%MEDIUM

Grant averages 2.39 made threes per game, and his recent volume is 2.7 over the last 10. This is playable, but the edge is small and standard deviation is relatively high.

blocksUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game, so this is close to his baseline. Because the line is only 0.5, the under is slightly safer than forcing an over on a low-volume stat.

stocksUNDER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season average for stocks is 1.31 and last 5 is 1.4, both below 1.5. This is a volatile combo-style stat, so the under is the more conservative lean.

praUNDER 22.554%MEDIUM

His season-based production profile is 18.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, which puts him near the line but not comfortably over it. Combo props carry extra variance, so this gets a cautious lean to the under.

timelineUNDER 17.5 PTS