AI Model:

Jamal Murray▲

DEN · PG

PPG

25.2

RPG

4.4

APG

7.2

L5 PPG

21.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.0

25.2

21.2

RPG+1.0

4.4

5.4

APG-0.2

7.2

7.0

SPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

UNDER 23.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

23.5

UTA

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs UTA: 45 pts

LAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs LAL: 28 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 12 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 21 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 30 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 39 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 5 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 12 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 19 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 31 pts

Over 23.5

Under 23.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

AST

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

85%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

OVER 2

57%

P+R

OVER 28.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

P+A

OVER 30.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.0

27.4

RPG

4.1

5.3

APG

5.2

7.1

vs POR (H2H)13 games

PPG

21.7

RPG

4.9

APG

6.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Amen Thompson	4	15	56%	+7.3%	medium
Josh Okogie	4	13	75%	+18.4%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	13	71%	+16.0%	medium
Dennis Schröder	4	11	40%

Murray’s assist volume is the clearest edge, while points lean a step below his season norm

Jamal Murray is trending slightly up overall, with his last 10 games at 24.2 PPG, 6.3 APG, and 34.5 MPG, close to his season baseline of 25.2 PPG and 7.2 APG. The biggest split signal is home vs away: he averages 20.0 PPG at home but 27.4 PPG away, so the scoring outlook is softer in Denver than his season average. Portland’s defense context is not an easy scoring environment, and his opponent history is only 21.69 PPG and 6.92 APG over 13 games, which supports caution on the points side. With Damian Lillard and Shaedon Sharpe out for Portland, the matchup environment is favorable enough for playmaking, but not enough to force an aggressive points over.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.2(↓ from 25.2)

APG

7.0(→ from 7.2)

RPG

5.4(↑ from 4.4)

Key Matchup

The opponent context is manageable, with no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders and their limited samples. Portland’s defense metrics show a 117.19 defensive rating and 0.424 scoring suppression, while the opponent absence list removes Damian Lillard and Shaedon Sharpe, which can help Murray’s usage and assist chances.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jamal Murray▼	Points	23.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	50%	22	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	7	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✓
Jamal Murray▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	4	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	85%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Jamal Murray▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	20%	2	✗
Jamal Murray▼	P+R	28.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	24	✗
Jamal Murray▼	P+A	30.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	29	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R30.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+A33UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Jamal Murray

Assists OVER 6.5HIGH

This is the cleanest statistical edge in the profile: his season average is 7.2 APG, his last 10 are 6.3, and his away split is 7.83 APG, all supporting the over at 6.5. The value data also backs it with a 7.0% edge, making it stronger than the points side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jrue Holiday	4	9	11	36%	50%
Toumani Camara	3	8	6	67%	100%
Deni Avdija	4	6	16	63%	75%
Scoot Henderson	2	5	0	0%	0%
Kris Murray	3	5	5	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 23.572%HIGH

His season mean is 25.17, but the last 5 have dipped to 21.2 and his home split is only 20.0 PPG. The value data also shows a 7.9% edge on the under at this line.

assistsOVER 6.568%MEDIUM

He averages 7.2 APG for the season, 6.3 over the last 10, and 7.83 in away games; the 6.5 line sits below his season mean. Value data shows a 7.0% edge on the over at this number.

reboundsUNDER 4.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 4.43 rebounds and his home split is 4.1, so 4.5 is slightly above his typical output. The recent bump to 5.4 over the last 5 is not strong enough to outweigh the season baseline.

threesOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.06 threes made per game on the season and 2.5 over the last 10, with 3.2 away and 2.9 at home. This is a volume-driven line that still sits below his season average.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so 0.5 is well below his typical production. The downside is variance, but the baseline supports the over.

blocksUNDER 0.585%HIGH

He averages just 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.0 over the last 5. A 0.5 block line is above his normal range.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.25 and recent mean is 0.9, both below 1.5. That makes the over difficult to justify without a major spike in defensive stats.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He is at 2.0 turnovers over the last 5 and 2.3 over the last 20, which is higher than a conservative projected line. His usage and ball-handling volume keep this in play.

prOVER 28.554%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds equals 29.6, and his recent form is still near that range. This is close enough that the over is playable, but the home scoring dip lowers confidence.

paOVER 30.560%MEDIUM

He averages 32.37 points plus assists on the season and 30.5 is exactly the neighborhood he has lived in recently. With 7.2 APG season-long and 6.3 over the last 10, this is a solid but not elite over.

timelineUNDER 23.5 PTS