AI Model:

Deni Avdija▲

POR · SF

PPG

24.3

RPG

7.0

APG

6.7

L5 PPG

23.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.9

24.3

23.4

RPG+0.4

7.0

7.4

APG-0.3

6.7

6.4

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

UNDER 24.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

24.5

MIN

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs MIN: 11 pts

DEN

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs DEN: 15 pts

PHX

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs PHX: 0 pts

IND

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs IND: 18 pts

CHA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHA: 22 pts

UTA

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs UTA: 17 pts

PHI

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs PHI: 25 pts

BKN

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BKN: 18 pts

IND

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs IND: 32 pts

MIN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MIN: 25 pts

Over 24.5

Under 24.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 24.5FANDUEL

84%

REB

UNDER 6.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

UNDER 6.5FANDUEL

56%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

57%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

55%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

54%

OVER 4

60%

P+A

UNDER 30.5FANDUEL

57%

PRA

UNDER 38.5FANDUEL

61%

UNDER 0.5

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

24.1

21.1

RPG

6.1

7.2

APG

7.2

5.6

vs DEN (H2H)14 games

PPG

13.2

RPG

5.6

APG

4.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
P.J. Washington	3	16	72%	+10.1%	medium
Cameron Johnson	4	16	59%	+9.0%	medium
Saddiq Bey	3	14	50%	-1.8%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	14	35%

Avdija’s usage is strong, but the number still leans under

Deni Avdija is averaging 24.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 6.7 APG on the season, with a home split of 24.1/7.2/7.2 that supports a solid baseline. His recent scoring has cooled relative to season form, with 18.3 PPG over the last 10 and 23.4 over the last 5, while his turnover load remains high at 5.0 per game in the last 5. The matchup context is mixed: he has just 13.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 4.0 APG in 14 games vs this opponent, and the listed defensive data plus key defenders suggest a tougher scoring environment than his season average. With teammate absences like Shaedon Sharpe and Caleb Love helping his role, the safest angle is still fading the inflated points line rather than forcing an over on a volatile combo prop.

Stat Trends

PPG

23.4(↑ from 24.3)

RPG

7.4(↑ from 7.0)

APG

6.4(→ from 6.7)

Key Matchup

He has no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the main note is that his head-to-head output vs this opponent is only 13.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 4.0 APG across 14 games. That history is notably below his season production and points to a tougher-than-average spot.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Deni Avdija▼	Points	24.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	2/2	70%	23	✓
Deni Avdija▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	6	✓
Deni Avdija▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	14	✗
Deni Avdija▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	2	✓
Deni Avdija▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Deni Avdija▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Deni Avdija▼	Turnovers	4	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%	3	✗
Deni Avdija▼	P+A	30.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	37	✗
Deni Avdija▼	PRA	38.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	43	✗
Deni Avdija▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+A28UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

PTS20UNDER14%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

AST7UNDER15%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/1937%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM1UNDER34%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)6/1932%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA5UNDER48%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x8/1942%▼

FTM8UNDER23%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

FTA10UNDER8%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

PRA35UNDER39%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)9/1947%▼

P+R27.5UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x9/1947%▼

REB6UNDER14%gbt_reboundsAvoid (5/20)8/1942%▼

Featured Pick

Deni Avdija

Points UNDER 24.5HIGH

This is the clearest edge in the data: his season average is 24.3, but his last 10 drops to 18.3 and his head-to-head average vs this opponent is only 13.2 PPG. The value table also shows a strong under edge at 24.5 across multiple books, making this the most reliable play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cameron Johnson	4	16	15	55%	59%
Christian Braun	4	10	13	75%	75%
Bruce Brown	4	5	0	0%	0%
Aaron Gordon	3	4	4	33%	33%
Nikola Jokić	4	3	10	67%	67%

pointsUNDER 24.584%HIGH

He averages 24.3 PPG on the season, but only 18.3 PPG over the last 10 and 13.2 PPG in 14 games vs this opponent. The value data also shows a strong under lean at this line across books.

reboundsUNDER 6.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is exactly 7.0 RPG, but the recent mean is 5.9 RPG and his away mean is 7.2 versus 6.1 at home. This is close to the midpoint, but the season trend and recent minutes support a slight under lean on a tough number.

assistsUNDER 6.556%MEDIUM

He’s at 6.7 APG on the season and 6.3 over the last 10, which is right around the line, but his recent sample is below his season level. The under is slightly favored because the line sits above his recent average.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.0 made threes per game on the season and 1.8 at home, both above this line. Recent form is weaker at 0.8 over the last 10, so this is only a modest over lean, not a strong play.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game on the season and 0.7 over the last 10, which clears the 0.5 line. The sample is volatile, but the season mean supports a small over edge.

stocksUNDER 1.554%MEDIUM

His season combined steals plus blocks is 1.4 on the prop metrics, and the last 10 sits at 1.3. That makes 1.5 a slightly high threshold despite decent all-around defensive production.

turnoversOVER 460%MEDIUM

He’s been very turnover-prone, with 5.0 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 3.8 over the last 20. Even with some volatility, a 4.0 line is below his recent burden.

paUNDER 30.557%MEDIUM

His season scoring plus assists profile is strong, but the combination is still being priced near his ceiling after a down last-10 scoring stretch. Combo props have higher variance, so the under is the more conservative side.

praUNDER 38.561%MEDIUM

Season PRA is roughly 38.0 using the provided means, while his last-10 production has fallen to about 30.5 using 18.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 6.3 APG. The line sits above his recent output and combo volatility makes the under more appealing.

double_doubleUNDER 0.559%MEDIUM

He has good multi-category production, but his scoring and rebounding are not consistently near double-double thresholds based on the provided game logs and rolling averages. The safer expectation is that he falls short more often than not.

timelineUNDER 24.5 PTS