Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

GSW

Golden State Warriors

33-38 | L10: 2-8

DAL

Dallas Mavericks

23-48 | L10: 2-8

2026-03-23

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

GSW95%

5%DAL

GSW80-91DAL

Key Factors

*Warriors without Stephen Curry (26.9 PPG) - out ()
*Warriors without Jimmy Butler III (20.0 PPG) - out ()
*Warriors without Moses Moody (11.9 PPG) - questionable (Wrist)
*Mavericks without Brandon Williams (12.7 PPG) - doubtful (Concussion)
*Warriors without Quinten Post (7.9 PPG) - out (Foot)

Key Matchup

Mavericks has matchup advantages

DAL Advantages

+ Positional advantages
+ Better roster depth

Key Defensive Matchups

GSW Players

De'Anthony Melton

Brandon Williams2g · 7m+0.0%43% eFGlow

Naji Marshall3g · 5m+0.0%88% eFGmedium

Klay Thompson3g · 4m+0.0%83% eFGmedium

Moses Moody

Cooper Flagg3g · 10m+0.0%50% eFGmedium

Naji Marshall3g · 4m+0.0%43% eFGmedium

Both teams enter at 2-8 over their last 10 and each is riding a three-game losing streak, so the recent form is equally shaky. Dallas has significant rotation pressure with Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, and Brandon Williams listed out or doubtful, while Golden State is also missing Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, and Quinten Post. With two days rest for both teams, the key motivation angle is which side can stabilize its offense despite the absences.

Team Comparison

GSWDAL

Key Players

Nembhard has expanded to 26.8 mpg over his last 5, up from 18.9 mpg for the season, and his assists have climbed to 7.6 per game over that span. The sportsbook has his assists line at 5.5 or 6.5 depending on book, and his recent workload plus Kyrie Irving and Brandon Williams absences keep him in a strong playmaking role. His last 5 still come with volatility, so the best angle is on his assists rather than points.

ProjectedPTS: 0.1-6.7-13.3REB: 0-2.6-5.6AST: 3.6-6-8.4

Flagg is still carrying a heavy load at 33.2 mpg over his last 5, but his trend is down versus his season baseline and his 20.1 season PPG is more stable than the recent spike in playmaking. He faces a Warriors defense that has allowed him 27 ppg in one prior meeting, but the prop board is mostly efficient and his recent minutes are the stronger argument than pure scoring momentum. The key call is that his last 5 points are only slightly above season mean, so overs need caution.

ProjectedPTS: 12.6-19.2-25.8REB: 3.6-6.6-9.6AST: 3.2-5.6-8

Christie’s scoring has slid to 10.6 PPG over his last 5, below his 12.4 season mark, and his recent assist numbers are only 1.2 APG. The market is hanging his points around 11.5 to 14.5 depending on the book, and the recent dip makes the under side more appealing than chasing a rebound. His minutes are steady, but the production has not matched the role lately.

Projected

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Ryan Nembhard▼ DAL	Assists	5.5draftkings	UNDER	64%HIGH	70%	+8.9%	5	✓
P.J. Washington▼ DAL	Points	14.5fanduel	UNDER	69%HIGH	50%	+17.7%	9	✓
Kristaps Porziņģis▼ GSW	Points	15.5fanduel	UNDER	70%HIGH	70%	+17.7%	22	✗
Max Christie▼ DAL	Points	11.5betmgm	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	50%	+4.2%	15	✗
Brandin Podziemski▼ GSW	Points	9.5fanduel	OVER	57%MEDIUM	80%	+3.7%	20	✓

Model Comparison

4 models · 10 props compared

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Props Shown

10 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

P.J. Washington

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board: 17.7% edge at FanDuel and 34.0 EV per 100. Even though Washington is scoring 18.8 PPG over his last 5, the price is still attractive enough to prefer the under given regression risk.

Kristaps Porziņģis

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

The under carries a 17.7% edge at FanDuel with 34.0 EV per 100, and his last 10 at 13.0 PPG plus 20.4 mpg supports the under more than the last-5 bounce. The questionable wrist status only adds to the downside case.

Ryan Nembhard

Assists UNDER 5.5HIGH

Nembhard’s assist under has a 10.3% edge at BetOnline and 8.9% at DraftKings, with our model at 64.6% for the under. His recent spike to 7.6 APG is role-driven, but the season baseline of 5.0 APG makes the under the better risk-adjusted side.

Parlay of the Game

Ryan Nembhard — Assists UNDER 5.5Leg 1

Kristaps Porziņģis — Points UNDER 15.5Leg 2

P.J. Washington — Points UNDER 15.5Leg 3

These three legs all lean under and are supported by value_props with strong positive edges. The correlation is mild but logical: Dallas’ missing creators push usage around, while both Porziņģis and Washington sit at lines that are still high relative to their season baselines and recent minutes.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Ryan Nembhard is Available. Cooper Flagg is Available. Kristaps Porziņģis is Questionable with Injury/Illness-RightWrist. P.J. Washington is Available. Naji Marshall is Available. For Dallas, Brandon Williams is Doubtful, Dereck Lively II is Out, and Kyrie Irving is Out. For Golden State, Jimmy Butler III, Quinten Post, and Stephen Curry are Out.