AI Model:

Max Christie—

DAL · SG

PPG

12.4

RPG

3.3

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

10.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.8

12.4

10.6

RPG-0.9

3.3

2.4

APG-0.8

2.0

1.2

SPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 12 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 2 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 6 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 13 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 12 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 12 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 13 pts

LAC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAC: 7 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

P+R

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.4

10.8

RPG

3.0

3.3

APG

1.0

2.1

vs GSW (H2H)10 games

PPG

7.8

RPG

3.2

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Trey Murphy III	3	17	50%	+1.2%	medium
Michael Porter Jr.	3	16	66%	+10.2%	medium
CJ McCollum	4	16	42%	-2.6%	medium
Stephen Curry	2	13	60%

Christie’s scoring is priced modestly, but the matchup and role still lean to the under

Max Christie is averaging 12.4 PPG, but his recent form has cooled to 10.6 over the last 5 and 9.2 over the last 10, with his last 20 at 11.4. He remains a steady minutes player at 29.3 MPG season-long, yet his scoring has been below his season mark in the most recent sample and his game log shows several low-output nights mixed in. The prop market is also showing some resistance, with the best available points line at 11.5 and the data model favoring the under on that number. With Dallas at home and key team absences keeping him in a larger role, the floor is decent, but the current scoring trend still points slightly below his season average.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.6(↓ from 12.4)

RPG

2.4(↓ from 3.3)

APG

1.2(↓ from 2.0)

3PM

2.2(→ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

The opponent context shows a 114.53 defensive rating, 100 pace, and a -0.724 three suppression mark, while the key defender data available lists no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed minutes and points allowed. His previous results vs this opponent are also muted at 7.8 PPG across 10 games in 21.1 MPG, which supports caution on scoring upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Max Christie▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	50%	15	✗
Max Christie▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Max Christie▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	1	✓
Max Christie▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	3	✓
Max Christie▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✗
Max Christie▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	17	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER29%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

PRA15.5UNDER20%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Confidence moved HIGH to LOW; Value edge changed +0.032; Odds moved materially▼

REB2.5UNDER11%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)13/2065%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.189; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R12.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A10.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)12/2060%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

3PM1.5OVER11%logisticAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x13/2065%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.080▼

Featured Pick

Max Christie

Points UNDER 11.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the season mean is 12.4, but the recent production has cooled to 10.6 over the last 5 and 9.2 over the last 10. The value data backs the under at multiple books, including a 4.0% edge at DraftKings and positive EV, making it the strongest play on the board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Stephen Curry	2	13	27	48%	60%
Brandin Podziemski	3	10	8	67%	67%
De'Anthony Melton	3	3	0	0%	0%
Jimmy Butler III	1	3	2	100%	100%
Draymond Green	3	2	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 11.574%HIGH

His season mean is 12.4 PPG, but the last 5 (10.6) and last 10 (9.2) both sit below that level. The value data also shows an under edge at 11.5, including a 4.0% edge on DraftKings and 7.36 EV per 100.

reboundsOVER 2.564%MEDIUM

He averages 3.3 RPG on the season and 3.42 RPG away, which are both above 2.5. The line is low enough that even a modest minute load should keep him in range.

assistsUNDER 2.569%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.0 APG, but the last 5 and last 10 are just 1.2 and 1.3, respectively. That recent dip is stronger than his season baseline, making the under the safer side.

threesOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.32 made threes per game on the season and 2.2 over the last 5, so the 2.5 line is very close to his normal output. Confidence stays moderate because the recent sample is slightly below season pace.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.89 and the last 10 is 1.0, both below 1.5. This is a higher-variance area for him, but the median production sits well under the line.

prUNDER 14.566%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 12.4 PPG and 3.3 RPG, while recent scoring and rebounding have both softened. Combo props carry more variance, so the under is preferred here.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Christie’s scoring is priced modestly, but the matchup and role still lean to the under

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 11.5 PTS