Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

24-46 | L10: 1-9

ATL

Atlanta Hawks

39-32 | L10: 9-1

2026-03-23

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

MEM92%

8%ATL

MEM80-91ATL

Key Factors

*Hawks without Jalen Johnson (22.7 PPG) - questionable (Shoulder)
*Grizzlies without Ja Morant (19.5 PPG) - out (Elbow)
*Grizzlies without Jaren Jackson Jr. (19.4 PPG) - out (Knee)
*Grizzlies without Zach Edey (13.6 PPG) - out (Ankle)
*Grizzlies without Santi Aldama (14.0 PPG) - out (Knee)

Key Matchup

Hawks has matchup advantages

ATL Advantages

+ Positional advantages
+ Better roster depth

Key Defensive Matchups

MEM Players

Ty Jerome

Dyson Daniels1g · 3m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Corey Kispert1g · 2m+0.0%75% eFGlow

CJ McCollum1g · 1m+0.0%0% eFGlow

GG Jackson

Jalen Johnson1g · 4m+0.0%65% eFGlow

Dyson Daniels2g · 2m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Memphis enters at 24-46 with a 1-9 last-10 stretch and a 2-game skid, while Atlanta is 39-32, riding a 9-1 last-10 run and a 1-game win streak. Both teams are on 2 days rest, but Memphis is still missing multiple high-usage pieces, so Atlanta has the clearer momentum and depth edge in this matchup.

Team Comparison

MEMATL

Key Players

Olivier-Maxence Prosper▲

He is up to 14.6 PPG over his last 5 compared to 9.1 PPG season-long, with minutes jumping from 18.5 MPG season to 25.4 MPG in the last 5. The standout prop angle is the rebounds market: he has 3.5 RPG season and 3.8 RPG over the last 5, but the sportsbook has 5.5 and 6.5 ranges available, which is a big gap given the recent role and the opponent context.

ProjectedPTS: 3.5-10.1-16.7REB: 0.6-3.6-6.6AST: 0-0.9-3.3

Jalen Johnson▼Questionable

He is still producing at a star level, but his last 5 have dipped to 19.8 PPG from 22.7 season and his status is Questionable with a left shoulder issue. The combination of lower recent scoring and injury uncertainty makes his points props more fragile, though his all-around volume remains elite when active.

ProjectedPTS: 13.4-20-26.6REB: 7.2-10.2-13.2AST: 6.1-8.5-10.9

His recent form has cooled sharply, with 8.6 PPG over the last 5 versus 15.5 PPG on the season and 13.0 PPG over the last 10. The scoring dip is notable relative to the market, but his rebounds and assists remain steadier than his points, especially with 31.2 MPG season volume.

ProjectedPTS: 5.2-11.8-18.4REB: 4.3-7.3-10.3AST: 1.2-3.6-6

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼ MEM	Rebounds	5.5fanduel	UNDER	89%HIGH	50%	+31.4%	3	✓
Jalen Johnson▼ ATL	Points	22.5draftkings	UNDER	75%HIGH	60%	+23.3%	—	—
Onyeka Okongwu▼ ATL	Points	14.5fanduel	UNDER	74%HIGH	60%	+13.1%	16	✗
Dyson Daniels▼ ATL	Points	13.5draftkings	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	40%	+18.6%	12	✓
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼ ATL	Points	20.5draftkings	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	40%	+37.3%	26	✗

Model Comparison

5 models · 11 props compared

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Props Shown

11 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Rebounds UNDER 5.5HIGH

His season rebounds are 3.51 and his last 10 are 4.8, both below the 5.5 number, while the value sheet shows a 31.4% edge and 54.54 EV per $100. The recent minutes bump helps, but not enough to justify a higher rebound expectation given the season baseline.

Jalen Johnson

Points UNDER 22.5HIGH

He is scoring 19.8 PPG over the last 5 and 19.4 over the last 10, both below the 22.5 line, and he is listed Questionable with a left shoulder injury. The 23.3% edge and 45.35 EV per $100 make this the cleanest side on his board.

Onyeka Okongwu

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

His last 5 are 8.6 PPG and his last 10 are 13.0 PPG, so 14.5 is above both recent baselines. The UNDER has a 13.1% edge and 24.8 EV per $100, which fits the recent scoring slowdown.

Parlay of the Game

Olivier-Maxence Prosper — Rebounds UNDER 5.5Leg 1

Jalen Johnson — Points UNDER 22.5Leg 2

Onyeka Okongwu — Points UNDER 14.5Leg 3

These legs all lean to the lower end of their recent production profiles and avoid overlap with the most volatile over outcomes. The parlay also fits the game context: Memphis is shorthanded, Atlanta has the better recent form, and the strongest individual edges in the data are all on the UNDER side.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Jalen Johnson is Questionable with a left shoulder injury. Memphis remains without Brandon Clarke, Cedric Coward, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Santi Aldama, and Zach Edey; Cam Spencer is Doubtful.