AI Model:

Herbert Jones▲

NOP · C

PPG

9.0

RPG

3.6

APG

2.8

L5 PPG

9.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.6

9.0

9.6

RPG+0.6

3.6

4.2

APG+0.2

2.8

3.0

SPG+0.5

1.7

2.2

BPG+0.1

0.5

0.6

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

LAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs LAL: 2 pts

SAC

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAC: 12 pts

PHX

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs PHX: 14 pts

WAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs WAS: 4 pts

TOR

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs TOR: 16 pts

HOU

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs HOU: 8 pts

DAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs DAL: 10 pts

LAC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAC: 7 pts

LAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAC: 11 pts

CLE

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs CLE: 12 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5STAKE

63%

REB

OVER 3.5STAKE

56%

AST

OVER 2.5STAKE

58%

3PM

OVER 1.5

57%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

64%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

61%

STL+BLK

OVER 2

62%

OVER 1.5

55%

P+R

UNDER 12.5STAKE

60%

P+A

UNDER 11.5STAKE

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.3

8.0

RPG

2.9

4.3

APG

2.7

3.8

vs NYK (H2H)7 games

PPG

10.6

RPG

3.0

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	3	25	78%	+36.7%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	19	53%	+8.4%	medium
Cooper Flagg	4	16	55%	+11.7%	medium
Brandon Ingram	2	14	22%

Steals-heavy profile with modest scoring upside against a slow-paced Knicks team

Herbert Jones is trending up, with his last-5 scoring at 9.6 PPG versus a 9.04 season mean, while his defensive production remains his strongest edge at 2.6 stocks over the last 10. His season-long role is stable at 28.98 MPG, and the matchup environment is not especially fast, with New York listed at a 100 pace and a 110.38 defensive rating. The biggest concern for overs is that his points profile is low-volume and his season standard deviation of 4.62 is fairly high relative to his 9.04 PPG mean, which makes scoring outcomes volatile. Assists and stocks look stronger than pure points, especially with multiple Knicks absences in the opponent context.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.6(↑ from 9.0)

RPG

4.2(↑ from 3.6)

APG

3.0(↑ from 2.8)

Stocks

2.8(↑ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

The opponent profile is not extremely fast, with a 100 pace and 110.38 defensive rating, which limits overall stat volume. On the defender side, there is no specific defender matchup data that clearly changes the projection, so the main read is a neutral-to-slightly-slow environment with multiple opponent absences helping peripheral production more than scoring.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Herbert Jones▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		13	✗
Herbert Jones▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	20%		2	✗
Herbert Jones▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		6	✓
Herbert Jones▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		1	✗
Herbert Jones▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		0	✗
Herbert Jones▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	FLIP	1	✗
Herbert Jones▼	STL+BLK	2	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	50%	1.5→2	1	✗
Herbert Jones▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%		1	✗
Herbert Jones▼	P+R	12.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	30%		15	✗
Herbert Jones▼	P+A	11.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	FLIP	19	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10UNDER5%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%▼

3PM2UNDER35%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x5/1926%▼

3PA5UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/1942%▼

PRA16UNDER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x8/1942%▼

AST3UNDER3%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x7/1937%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)7/1937%▼

P+R12OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)11/1958%▼

P+A12OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x10/1953%▼

REB3UNDER20%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)5/1926%▼

STL1UNDER10%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/1942%▼

Featured Pick

Herbert Jones

Steals OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: his season average is 1.7 steals, his last-5 and last-10 are both 2.2, and the line is only 1.5. Unlike scoring, this stat is supported by both season form and recent form without needing a hot shooting night.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Brunson	1	4	8	60%	60%
Josh Hart	1	3	0	0%	0%
Jose Alvarado	1	2	0	0%	0%
Mikal Bridges	1	2	6	67%	100%
Jordan Clarkson	1	1	2	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 9.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.04 PPG and the market is asking for 10+ to beat 9.5, which is slightly above his baseline. The last-5 at 9.6 is not enough to overcome the season level, especially with scoring volatility shown by a 4.62 season standard deviation.

reboundsOVER 3.556%MEDIUM

He is at 3.57 RPG for the season and 4.2 over the last 5, so 3.5 is a reasonable threshold. This is still a moderate-confidence play because his rebound standard deviation is 2.2, which adds variance.

assistsOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 2.78 APG and his last-5 is 3.0, so 2.5 is below both baselines. The away split is also stronger at 3.35 APG, which supports the over if minutes hold near 29.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.43 threes per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, with 1.8 fg3 attempts per game recently. Because the season mean is close to the line, this is playable but not high-confidence.

stealsOVER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.7 steals per game on the season and 2.2 over the last 5 and last 10. This is his strongest single-stat edge because the line is below his season average.

blocksUNDER 0.561%MEDIUM

His season mean is exactly 0.5 blocks, but his last-10 is only 0.4 and the line requires at least one block to clear. That makes the under slightly more appealing in a lower-variance defensive stat.

stocksOVER 262%MEDIUM

He averages 2.18 stocks on the season and 2.6 over the last 10, so a 2.0 line is beneath both marks. This fits his defensive profile, though the standard deviation of 1.72 keeps confidence from being higher.

turnoversOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He is averaging 1.4 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.3 over the last 10, which sits close to a 1.5 projection. This is more of a slight lean than a strong bet.

prUNDER 12.560%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 12.61 combined, but the line asks for 13 needed to win the over, and the scoring component is the softer side. Given scoring volatility, the under is safer than forcing a combo over.

paUNDER 11.558%MEDIUM

His season points + assists is 11.82 combined, which is essentially right on the market number. Because combo props are high-variance, the slight lean is to the under.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS