Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Black | 4 | 17 | 71% | +11.9% | medium |
| Tristan da Silva | 4 | 15 | 39% | -13.1% | medium |
| VJ Edgecombe | 3 | 14 | 73% | +15.1% | medium |
| Tre Jones | 4 | 13 | 50% |
Jalen Brunson is still logging heavy run at 34.9 season MPG and 35.0 MPG over his last 5, but his scoring trend is down from a 26.1 season average to 23.0 over the last 10 and 23.2 over the last 20. The home split is a clear positive, with 26.6 PPG and 8.1 APG at home, and New Orleans’ defense profile suggests a tougher scoring environment with a 119.15 defensive rating and 0.845 scoring suppression. His recent assist form is stronger than his season baseline, but the board is pricing his points and combo props near his season production rather than his colder recent stretch.
New Orleans has a 119.15 defensive rating and a 0.845 scoring suppression mark, which points to a tougher scoring environment. Brunson’s head-to-head sample also comes in below his season scoring level at 19.33 PPG across 12 games, and there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on beyond that.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Evolution | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jalen Brunson▼ | Points | 25.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 32 | ✗ | |
Jalen Brunson▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 2/2 | 50% | 1 | ✓ | |
Jalen Brunson▼ | Assists | 5.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 90% | 7 | ✓ | |
Jalen Brunson▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 2 | ✓ | |
Jalen Brunson▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 90% | 0 | ✗ | |
Jalen Brunson▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 0 | ✗ | |
Jalen Brunson▼ | Turnovers | 2.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 60% | — | 2 | ✗ |
Jalen Brunson▼ | P+A | 31.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 39 | ✓ | |
Jalen Brunson▼ | P+R | 28.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | FLIP | 33 | ✗ |
The strongest recent trend is in his playmaking, with 7.6 APG over the last 5 and 9.3 APG over the last 10 versus a 6.6 season average. With Miles McBride and Landry Shamet out, Brunson should keep a large share of creation, making assists the cleanest over on the board.
| medium |
| Sion James | 3 | 13 | 63% | +3.6% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herbert Jones | 1 | 7 | 5 | 67% | 83% |
| Jeremiah Fears | 2 | 4 | 2 | 25% | 25% |
| Trey Murphy III | 1 | 4 | 7 | 50% | 58% |
| Saddiq Bey | 1 | 3 | 8 | 75% | 88% |
| Jordan Poole | 1 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 125% |
He is below that number in recent form, with 23.0 PPG over his last 10 and 23.2 over his last 20 versus a 26.1 season average. The matchup also leans slower and more suppressive, and his opponent history is just 19.33 PPG across 12 games.
Brunson averages only 3.41 RPG for the season and 3.3 over his last 5, so 3.5 is slightly above his typical output. His away average is 4.1, but this is a home game and the season/home baseline still sits below the line.
Assist volume has trended up to 7.6 over the last 5 and 9.3 over the last 10, well above his 6.6 season average. The absence of Miles McBride and Landry Shamet should help keep playmaking responsibility concentrated in his hands.
He averages 2.73 threes per game for the season, but only 1.9 over the last 10 and 2.2 over the last 20, so the recent trend is softer. With a lower recent 3-point pace and no strong reason to expect a spike, the under is the steadier lean.
He is at 0.8 steals per game for the season and 1.8 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low threshold. The recent defensive activity is strong enough to support a modest over lean.
His season stocks average is 0.89, but he has reached 2.0 over the last 5 and 1.4 over the last 10, showing usable recent defensive production. Because variance is still meaningful, this stays a medium-confidence angle.
He is averaging 2.5 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.6 over the last 5, while the recent 10 is 2.8. With his on-ball usage and elevated assist responsibility, the over is supported by the recent turnover profile.
Points plus assists sits near his season baseline, and the assist spike helps offset the scoring dip. Because combo props carry more variance, confidence stays modest.
His season points and rebounds profile does not strongly support clearing this number, especially with rebounds sitting at just 3.41 season average. Recent scoring has softened enough that the under is the safer side.