AI Model:

Jalen Brunson▼

NYK · PG

PPG

26.1

RPG

3.4

APG

6.6

L5 PPG

25.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.7

26.1

25.4

RPG-0.4

3.4

3.0

APG+1.0

6.6

7.6

SPG+1.0

0.8

1.8

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 25.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

25.5

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 26 pts

OKC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs OKC: 16 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 9 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 24 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 28 pts

UTA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs UTA: 28 pts

IND

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs IND: 29 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 30 pts

BKN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs BKN: 17 pts

WAS

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs WAS: 23 pts

Over 25.5

Under 25.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 25.5STAKE

64%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

72%

AST

OVER 5.5STAKE

58%

3PM

UNDER 2.5

60%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

OVER 2.5

61%

P+A

OVER 31.5STAKE

54%

P+R

UNDER 28.5STAKE

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

26.6

21.4

RPG

3.1

4.1

APG

8.1

7.5

vs NOP (H2H)12 games

PPG

19.3

RPG

2.6

APG

5.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Anthony Black	4	17	71%	+11.9%	medium
Tristan da Silva	4	15	39%	-13.1%	medium
VJ Edgecombe	3	14	73%	+15.1%	medium
Tre Jones	4	13	50%

Brunson’s minutes are secure, but recent scoring has cooled

Jalen Brunson is still logging heavy run at 34.9 season MPG and 35.0 MPG over his last 5, but his scoring trend is down from a 26.1 season average to 23.0 over the last 10 and 23.2 over the last 20. The home split is a clear positive, with 26.6 PPG and 8.1 APG at home, and New Orleans’ defense profile suggests a tougher scoring environment with a 119.15 defensive rating and 0.845 scoring suppression. His recent assist form is stronger than his season baseline, but the board is pricing his points and combo props near his season production rather than his colder recent stretch.

Stat Trends

PPG

25.4(↓ from 26.1)

APG

7.6(↑ from 6.6)

RPG

3.0(↓ from 3.4)

Key Matchup

New Orleans has a 119.15 defensive rating and a 0.845 scoring suppression mark, which points to a tougher scoring environment. Brunson’s head-to-head sample also comes in below his season scoring level at 19.33 PPG across 12 games, and there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on beyond that.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Jalen Brunson▼	Points	25.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		32	✗
Jalen Brunson▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	50%		1	✓
Jalen Brunson▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	90%		7	✓
Jalen Brunson▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		2	✓
Jalen Brunson▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	90%		0	✗
Jalen Brunson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%		0	✗
Jalen Brunson▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	—	2	✗
Jalen Brunson▼	P+A	31.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		39	✓
Jalen Brunson▼	P+R	28.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	33	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R27OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)12/2060%▼

PTS25UNDER44%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

REB3.5UNDER38%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM2UNDER27%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

3PA6UNDER27%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

FTA6UNDER22%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA37UNDER41%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

P+A32UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

R+A12UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

AST8UNDER11%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

FTM4UNDER23%gbtAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Brunson

Assists OVER 5.5MEDIUM

The strongest recent trend is in his playmaking, with 7.6 APG over the last 5 and 9.3 APG over the last 10 versus a 6.6 season average. With Miles McBride and Landry Shamet out, Brunson should keep a large share of creation, making assists the cleanest over on the board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Herbert Jones	1	7	5	67%	83%
Jeremiah Fears	2	4	2	25%	25%
Trey Murphy III	1	4	7	50%	58%
Saddiq Bey	1	3	8	75%	88%
Jordan Poole	1	1	5	100%	125%

pointsUNDER 25.564%MEDIUM

He is below that number in recent form, with 23.0 PPG over his last 10 and 23.2 over his last 20 versus a 26.1 season average. The matchup also leans slower and more suppressive, and his opponent history is just 19.33 PPG across 12 games.

reboundsUNDER 3.572%HIGH

Brunson averages only 3.41 RPG for the season and 3.3 over his last 5, so 3.5 is slightly above his typical output. His away average is 4.1, but this is a home game and the season/home baseline still sits below the line.

assistsOVER 5.558%MEDIUM

Assist volume has trended up to 7.6 over the last 5 and 9.3 over the last 10, well above his 6.6 season average. The absence of Miles McBride and Landry Shamet should help keep playmaking responsibility concentrated in his hands.

threesUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.73 threes per game for the season, but only 1.9 over the last 10 and 2.2 over the last 20, so the recent trend is softer. With a lower recent 3-point pace and no strong reason to expect a spike, the under is the steadier lean.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He is at 0.8 steals per game for the season and 1.8 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low threshold. The recent defensive activity is strong enough to support a modest over lean.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.89, but he has reached 2.0 over the last 5 and 1.4 over the last 10, showing usable recent defensive production. Because variance is still meaningful, this stays a medium-confidence angle.

turnoversOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

He is averaging 2.5 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.6 over the last 5, while the recent 10 is 2.8. With his on-ball usage and elevated assist responsibility, the over is supported by the recent turnover profile.

paOVER 31.554%MEDIUM

Points plus assists sits near his season baseline, and the assist spike helps offset the scoring dip. Because combo props carry more variance, confidence stays modest.

prUNDER 28.559%MEDIUM

His season points and rebounds profile does not strongly support clearing this number, especially with rebounds sitting at just 3.41 season average. Recent scoring has softened enough that the under is the safer side.

timelineUNDER 25.5 PTS