AI Model:

Josh Hart▲

NYK · SG

PPG

12.2

RPG

7.6

APG

5.0

L5 PPG

15.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.0

12.2

15.2

RPG+1.2

7.6

8.8

APG-1.2

5.0

3.8

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

OVER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

MIL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs MIL: 12 pts

SAS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAS: 10 pts

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 12 pts

OKC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs OKC: 10 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 18 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 8 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 12 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 7 pts

IND

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs IND: 33 pts

WAS

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs WAS: 16 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 11.5STAKE

58%

REB

OVER 7.5STAKE

62%

AST

UNDER 4.5STAKE

55%

3PM

OVER 1.5

57%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

63%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

70%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

56%

OVER 1.5

54%

PRA

UNDER 26.5

61%

P+A

UNDER 15.5STAKE

60%

P+R

OVER 18.5STAKE

59%

R+A

OVER 12.5STAKE

68%

OVER 0.5

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.8

10.6

RPG

8.0

6.8

APG

5.1

4.5

vs NOP (H2H)7 games

PPG

12.0

RPG

7.4

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Scottie Barnes	4	19	57%	-2.5%	medium
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	4	16	64%	+11.3%	medium
Miles Bridges	3	12	56%	-6.2%	medium
Paolo Banchero	3	10	59%

Hart’s all-around floor is solid, but the scoring ceiling is modest

Josh Hart enters this matchup with an upward season trend and strong recent rebounding, posting 15.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 3.8 APG over his last 5 games. His season baseline is still closer to 12.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, so the recent scoring spike is a bit above his normal level. He has played better at home, and tonight’s game is in New York, but the Pelicans’ opponent defense context and his lower b2b scoring profile lean toward a more balanced stat line than an explosive one. With multiple Knicks rotation absences potentially keeping his minutes secure, rebounds remain his strongest angle while assists and points are more range-dependent.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.2(↑ from 12.2)

RPG

8.8(↑ from 7.6)

APG

3.8(↓ from 5.0)

Key Matchup

The provided opponent defense context shows a 119.15 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring_suppression of 0.845, which points to a moderate scoring environment. key defenders data includes Trey Murphy III and Dejounte Murray, but no specific defender matchup data beyond those entries should be assumed.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Josh Hart▼	Points	11.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		10	✗
Josh Hart▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		8	✓
Josh Hart▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	FLIP	3	✓
Josh Hart▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		0	✗
Josh Hart▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	60%		0	✓
Josh Hart▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	80%		0	✓
Josh Hart▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	1.5→2.5	0	✓
Josh Hart▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%		1	✗
Josh Hart▼	PRA	26.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	FLIP	21	✓
Josh Hart▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	—	13	✓
Josh Hart▼	P+R	18.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		18	✗
Josh Hart▼	R+A	12.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		11	✗
Josh Hart▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER34%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

3PM1UNDER6%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x7/2035%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

FTA2UNDER54%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 6x4/2020%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

PRA24UNDER38%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x9/2045%▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

P+A15.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

REB6.5OVER29%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM0.5UNDER22%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST4UNDER9%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER44%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼

3PA3UNDER15%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

R+A11.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Josh Hart

Rebounds OVER 7.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest number relative to his production: 7.6 RPG on the season, 8.3 over the last 10, and 8.0 at home. Unlike his assists or steals, rebounds are supported by both the season baseline and the recent trend, giving it the best blend of stability and value.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Dejounte Murray	1	4	5	33%	42%
Karlo Matković	1	2	8	100%	133%
Herbert Jones	1	1	0	0%	0%
Derik Queen	1	1	2	33%	33%
Jeremiah Fears	1	1	4	100%	100%

pointsOVER 11.558%MEDIUM

He averages 12.2 points on the season and 13.8 over his last 10, with a home scoring split of 13.8 PPG. The last 5 is hotter at 15.2, but that is still only a modest edge over the 11.5 line.

reboundsOVER 7.562%MEDIUM

Rebounding is his steadiest category: 7.6 RPG season, 8.3 over the last 10, and 8.0 at home. The 7.5 line sits below both his season and home averages.

assistsUNDER 4.555%MEDIUM

He is at 5.0 APG on the season, but his last 5 has dropped to 3.8 and his recent mean is 4.3. With the recent dip, the under is safer than chasing the season average.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.51 made threes on the season and 1.5 in his last 5, so the threshold is right on his mean. His 0.404 three-point percentage supports steady 3PM production.

stealsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season steal average is 1.1, with only 0.8 over the last 20 and 0.9 at home. A 1.5 line is above his normal range, making the under the better side.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

He averages just 0.3 blocks per game and 0.0 over the last 5. Even at 0.5, the block over requires a rarer outcome than his usual profile suggests.

stocksUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.42, but recent marks are 1.4 and 1.1, and his b2b stocks rate is only 0.78. That keeps him just below a comfortable over profile.

turnoversOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

He has 1.6 turnovers per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 5. The recent ball-handling load makes 1.5 a reasonable over target.

praUNDER 26.561%MEDIUM

Using season averages, his PRA projects to 24.8, and his recent 5-game scoring bump does not fully offset the lower assist trend. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is preferred.

paUNDER 15.560%MEDIUM

His season points + assists average is 17.2, but the recent assist decline to 3.8 makes this more fragile than the season mean suggests. The 15.5 line is close enough to justify caution on the over.

prOVER 18.559%MEDIUM

He averages 19.8 points + rebounds on the season and 24.0 over his last 5. Home form also supports this combo, though the recent scoring surge makes confidence only moderate.

raOVER 12.568%MEDIUM

He averages 13.6 rebounds + assists on the season, 12.6 over his last 5, and 13.3 over his last 10. This is one of his cleaner combo looks because both categories sit near or above the line.

double_doubleOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He has strong double-double potential with season marks of 7.6 rebounds and 5.0 assists, plus recent rebound production at 8.8 per game. The path is usually points/rebounds rather than assists, but the profile is there.

timelineOVER 11.5 PTS