AI Model:

Mikal Bridges▲

NYK · SF

PPG

14.7

RPG

4.1

APG

3.9

L5 PPG

10.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.5

14.7

10.2

RPG-0.5

4.1

3.6

APG-0.9

3.9

3.0

SPG-0.9

1.3

0.4

BPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

OKC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs OKC: 15 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 9 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 0 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 7 pts

UTA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs UTA: 5 pts

IND

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs IND: 11 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 7 pts

IND

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs IND: 10 pts

BKN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs BKN: 9 pts

WAS

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs WAS: 14 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5STAKE

68%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

62%

AST

UNDER 3.5STAKE

60%

3PM

OVER 1.5

57%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

71%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

61%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

58%

OVER 1

55%

P+R

UNDER 18.5STAKE

63%

P+A

UNDER 18.5STAKE

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.0

10.6

RPG

3.9

4.0

APG

2.9

3.4

vs NOP (H2H)16 games

PPG

16.4

RPG

3.3

APG

2.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	4	23	35%	-13.5%	medium
Norman Powell	4	21	56%	-2.6%	medium
Brandon Ingram	4	17	64%	+8.3%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	3	14	60%

Bridges’ minutes are solid, but his scoring form is still muted

Mikal Bridges is sitting at 14.7 PPG, but his recent scoring has cooled sharply with just 10.2 PPG over the last 5 and 8.7 over the last 10, well below his season mark. He does get a small boost from the matchup history, averaging 16.4375 PPG and 35.8125 MPG in 16 games vs this opponent, but his recent minutes have dipped to 29.5 and that limits upside. The Knicks are at home, where he’s stronger at 14.0 PPG than 10.6 away, yet the current scoring trend still points more toward a modest night than a breakout. With the season average weighted more heavily than the short-term bump, his points projection lands near the posted mid-teens line rather than above it.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.2(↓ from 14.7)

RPG

3.6(↓ from 4.1)

APG

3.0(↓ from 3.9)

Key Matchup

The opponent data shows a 119.15 defensive rating and a pace of 100, which is not an easy environment for efficiency. His career sample vs this opponent is strong at 16.4375 PPG in 16 games, but there is no specific defender matchup data to sharpen the read further.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Mikal Bridges▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	90%		14	✓
Mikal Bridges▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		2	✓
Mikal Bridges▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		7	✗
Mikal Bridges▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	FLIP	4	✓
Mikal Bridges▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	90%	—	0	✓
Mikal Bridges▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%		1	✓
Mikal Bridges▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	80%	2→2.5	1	✓
Mikal Bridges▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	10%	FLIP	1	✗
Mikal Bridges▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	90%		16	✓
Mikal Bridges▼	P+A	18.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	90%		21	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A14.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

P+R15UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

R+A6UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Mikal Bridges

Steals UNDER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest under on the board because his season mark is 1.3 SPG, but the last 5 and last 10 are just 0.4 and 0.5. A 1.5 line sits above both his season baseline and recent form, making the under the most reliable angle.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Saddiq Bey	1	4	5	50%	63%
Trey Murphy III	1	4	5	67%	83%
Jeremiah Fears	2	2	2	100%	100%
Jordan Poole	1	2	3	50%	75%
Herbert Jones	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 14.568%MEDIUM

His season average is 14.7, but the last 5 games are only 10.2 PPG and the last 10 are 8.7, showing clear downward scoring momentum. Even with a strong 16.4375 PPG career mark vs this opponent, the recent minutes drop to 29.5 makes the under the safer side.

reboundsUNDER 4.562%MEDIUM

Bridges is at 4.1 RPG on the season and 3.6 over the last 5, both below the 4.5 number. His away split is 4.0 RPG and home is 3.9, so there isn’t a strong split-based push to the over.

assistsUNDER 3.560%MEDIUM

He averages 3.86 APG on the season, but just 3.0 over the last 5 and 3.0 over the last 10. The 3.5 line sits slightly above his recent production, and the variance on assists makes this a modest under lean.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.94 made threes on the season and 1.89 at home, which is above a 1.5 threshold. The last 5 are only 1.4, so this is not a strong over, but the season baseline still supports it more than the under.

stealsUNDER 1.571%HIGH

Bridges averages 1.3 SPG for the season, but only 0.4 over the last 5 and 0.5 over the last 10. A 1.5 steals line is above his baseline, and the short-term decline makes the under the better side.

blocksOVER 0.561%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 BPG on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so getting to 1 block is well within range. The line is only 0.5, which gives the over a reasonable path despite normal volatility.

stocksUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.17, but the last 5 is 1.0 and the last 10 is 1.4, both well below that level. Because stocks add volatility and the recent trend is down, the under is the safer read.

turnoversOVER 155%MEDIUM

He has averaged 0.8 turnovers over the last 5 and 0.9 over the last 20, which keeps him near this range. This is a thin edge and not a high-confidence play, but 1.0 is a reasonable over if the book is pricing him conservatively.

prUNDER 18.563%MEDIUM

His season PR is 18.78, but recent scoring suppression drags the combined profile down, with 14.7 PPG and 4.1 RPG season-long and only 10.2 PPG in the last 5. The combo prop carries extra variance, so staying under 18.5 is the more conservative approach.

paUNDER 18.561%MEDIUM

Bridges’ season points + assists profile is 18.56, but his recent 10.2 PPG and 3.0 APG create a lower-projection environment. Since combo props have added variance, the under gets the edge at this number.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS