AI Model:

Zion Williamson▼

NOP · PF

PPG

21.3

RPG

5.8

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

20.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.9

21.3

20.4

RPG-1.0

5.8

4.8

APG-1.1

3.3

2.2

SPG0.0

1.0

BPG+0.1

0.5

0.6

UNDER 24.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

24.5

LAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs LAL: 24 pts

SAC

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAC: 23 pts

PHX

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs PHX: 19 pts

WAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs WAS: 20 pts

TOR

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs TOR: 19 pts

HOU

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs HOU: 21 pts

DAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs DAL: 27 pts

LAC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAC: 14 pts

LAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAC: 15 pts

CLE

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs CLE: 25 pts

Over 24.5

Under 24.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 24.5STAKE

68%

REB

UNDER 6.5STAKE

64%

AST

UNDER 4.5STAKE

72%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

73%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

P+R

UNDER 30.5STAKE

70%

P+A

UNDER 27.5STAKE

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.0

19.3

RPG

4.5

5.9

APG

3.1

vs NYK (H2H)5 games

PPG

27.2

RPG

6.4

APG

4.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Precious Achiuwa	3	17	33%	-26.7%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	17	44%	-26.7%	medium
Jaren Jackson Jr.	4	14	66%	-5.5%	medium
P.J. Washington	3	11	88%

Zion’s scoring lane is solid, but the trend points to a more measured night

Zion Williamson is averaging 21.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 3.3 APG on the season, with his last 5 slipping to 20.4 PPG and 4.8 RPG, so the recent trend is clearly down. He has been steady on minutes at 29.7 MPG season-long and 31.2 MPG over the last 5, and his matchup history is strong at 27.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 4.0 APG across 5 games vs this opponent. With New York allowing a pace of 100 and Zion’s season scoring sitting below the listed 24.5 line, the safer angle leans away from an inflated points number despite his favorable history here.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.4(↓ from 21.3)

RPG

4.8(↓ from 5.8)

APG

2.2(↓ from 3.3)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so no specific defender matchup data. The matchup history is strong for Zion, but the opponent context still shows a slower pace of 100 and a modest scoring suppression profile.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Zion Williamson▼	Points	24.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		22	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		4	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	90%		2	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	90%	—	1	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	20%	FLIP	1	✓
Zion Williamson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	80%		2	✗
Zion Williamson▼	P+R	30.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	70%		26	✓
Zion Williamson▼	P+A	27.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		24	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA31.5UNDER39%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%+19.0% edge▼

PTS22.5UNDER11%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 7x5/2025%+20.1% edge▼

P+R24.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x11/2055%▼

P+A21.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x12/2060%▼

REB6.5UNDER56%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)4/2020%+20.8% edge▼

FTA8UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER16%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x5/2025%+13.5% edge▼

FTM5UNDER31%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Zion Williamson

Assists UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number relative to his current production: 3.3 APG season-long, 2.2 APG over the last 5, and 2.4 APG over the last 10. The line is materially above all of those marks, making the under the strongest angle among the available props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
OG Anunoby	1	6	12	67%	67%
Karl-Anthony Towns	2	3	3	50%	75%
Josh Hart	1	2	2	50%	50%
Jordan Clarkson	2	2	0	0%	0%
Jalen Brunson	2	2	6	40%	60%

pointsUNDER 24.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 21.3 PPG and his last 10 is 20.7, both below 24.5. The recent drop to 20.4 over the last 5 supports a conservative under lean.

reboundsUNDER 6.564%MEDIUM

He is at 5.8 RPG for the season and 5.5 over the last 10, while his home mean is only 4.5. That makes 6.5 a tougher ask than the market suggests.

assistsUNDER 4.572%HIGH

Zion averages 3.3 APG on the season and just 2.2 over the last 5, with recent form clearly below this number. Even his last 20 at 3.1 stays short of the line.

stealsUNDER 1.573%HIGH

He averages exactly 1.0 SPG on the season, but the 1.5 line is still above his normal level. His last 10 at 0.8 also points away from the over.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

Zion averages 0.5 BPG on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, so this is right at his baseline. The price is close enough that the over is playable, but only with modest confidence.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.56, but the recent mean is only 1.1. Because this combo is more volatile, the under is the safer side.

prUNDER 30.570%HIGH

His season points plus rebounds profile is 27.1 using the listed averages, and his recent form has been softer on both categories. A 30.5 PR line asks for a stronger night than his current baseline.

paUNDER 27.566%MEDIUM

Zion’s season points plus assists comes out to 24.6, and his last 5 assists have dipped to 2.2. The line is ahead of his normal scoring-plus-playmaking output.

timelineUNDER 24.5 PTS