AI Model:

DeMar DeRozan▼

SAC · SF

PPG

18.4

RPG

2.9

APG

4.1

L5 PPG

18.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.2

18.4

18.6

RPG-1.3

2.9

1.6

APG+2.3

4.1

6.4

SPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

20.5

LAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs LAL: 9 pts

PHX

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHX: 17 pts

NOP

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs NOP: 15 pts

IND

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs IND: 12 pts

CHA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CHA: 39 pts

LAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAC: 27 pts

UTA

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs UTA: 41 pts

SAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAS: 2 pts

PHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHI: 13 pts

BKN

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs BKN: 10 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5STAKE

64%

REB

OVER 2.5STAKE

56%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

68%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

53%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

P+A

UNDER 23.5STAKE

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.7

15.6

RPG

2.7

1.8

APG

4.2

4.8

vs CHA (H2H)16 games

PPG

21.9

RPG

4.1

APG

4.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	23	32%	-21.1%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	20	59%	+4.8%	medium
Jaylen Wells	4	15	96%	+27.2%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	15	33%

Usage boost with Sabonis out keeps DeRozan's scoring and playmaking in play

DeMar DeRozan’s season line is 18.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 4.1 assists in 31.6 MPG, and his recent assist volume has climbed to 6.4 APG over the last 5 games. The absence of Domantas Sabonis and other rotation pieces should keep DeRozan heavily involved, but his scoring has been flat-to-down lately at 18.6 PPG last 5 and 16.2 PPG last 20, so the market should not overreact to the occasional spike. He has been more productive against Charlotte historically, averaging 21.875 PPG and 4.8125 APG in 16 games, but his current home split is only 16.7 PPG and 4.2 APG. With recent minutes around 29.5 and a down trend in overall output, his strongest angle is assists rather than a big scoring over.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.6(→ from 18.4)

APG

6.4(↑ from 4.1)

RPG

1.6(↓ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

Charlotte’s opponent profile shows a 112.27 defensive rating and -0.704 scoring suppression, which is not a strong scoring environment. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the clearest edge comes from the team-level defense and pace context rather than a single stopper.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
DeMar DeRozan▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		7	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		4	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		5	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	—	50%		0	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%		0	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	P+A	23.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	23.5→24.5	12	✓

ML Scout Analysis

AST4.5OVER18%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)12/2060%+16.1% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.387; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

PRA22.5OVER18%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed -0.074; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

PTS14.5UNDER7%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

P+R20UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

P+A23UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

REB2.5UNDER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

DeMar DeRozan

Assists OVER 3.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest blend of role and recent form: 4.1 APG season, 5.0 APG last 10, and 6.4 APG last 5. With Sabonis out, DeRozan’s creation load should stay elevated, making 3.5 a manageable number compared with his scoring props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Sion James	1	6	0	0%	0%
Miles Bridges	1	4	2	50%	50%
Brandon Miller	2	2	2	33%	33%
Kon Knueppel	1	1	9	67%	100%
Moussa Diabaté	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 20.564%MEDIUM

He averages 18.4 PPG on the season and 18.6 over the last 5, both below 20.5. The recent 41-point outlier is pulling perception higher, but his last-20 mark is only 16.2 PPG, which supports the under.

reboundsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.9 RPG and he has cleared 2.5 on the season profile. The recent 1.6 RPG last 5 is softer, but the line is still modest.

assistsOVER 3.568%MEDIUM

He averages 4.1 APG on the season and 5.0 APG over the last 10, with 6.4 APG over the last 5. The increased playmaking role is also consistent with Sabonis being out.

stealsOVER 0.553%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 SPG on the season, which is comfortably above 0.5. Recent volatility is present, but the base rate supports a low-bar over.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.41 and his recent 5-game mark is 1.0, both below 1.5. Standard deviation is relatively high for this type of prop, so the under is the more conservative side.

paUNDER 23.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 22.5 using 18.4 PPG and 4.1 APG, and his last-20 scoring trend is down. The assist bump helps, but 23.5 still asks for a stronger scoring night than his current baseline.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS