AI Model:
PF
Doug McDermott▲
SAC · PF
PPG
5.1
RPG
1.1
APG
0.5
L5 PPG
8.8
Last 10 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG+3.7
5.1
8.8
RPG+1.1
1.1
2.2
APG+0.7
0.5
1.2
SPG0.0
0.2
0.2
BPG+0.1
0.1
0.2
UNDER 5.5 PTS
Last 10 games
4
Current Streak
4
Longest Streak
OVER
Streak Type
5.5
14
UTA
2026-02-11
2026-02-11 vs UTA: 14 pts
8
SAS
2026-02-21
2026-02-21 vs SAS: 8 pts
0
NOP
2026-03-05
2026-03-05 vs NOP: 0 pts
0
IND
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs IND: 0 pts
6
CHA
2026-03-11
2026-03-11 vs CHA: 6 pts
3
LAC
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs LAC: 3 pts
9
UTA
2026-03-15
2026-03-15 vs UTA: 9 pts
12
SAS
2026-03-17
2026-03-17 vs SAS: 12 pts
11
PHI
2026-03-19
2026-03-19 vs PHI: 11 pts
9
BKN
2026-03-22
2026-03-22 vs BKN: 9 pts
Over 5.5
Under 5.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 5.5
58%
REB
UNDER 1.5
67%
AST
OVER 0.5
54%
3PM
OVER 1.5
63%
STL+BLK
UNDER 0.5
64%
PRA
UNDER 7.5
60%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
5.2
5.0
RPG
1.4
0.6
APG
0.6
0.4
vs CHA (H2H)13 games
PPG
9.4
RPG
2.1
APG
0.7
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klay Thompson | 2 | 5 | 38% | -15.5% | low |
| Bez Mbeng | 1 | 4 | 100% | +59.5% | low |
| Jordan Hawkins | 1 | 3 | 0% | -40.5% | low |
| Lindy Waters III | 1 | 3 | 50% |
Minutes bump gives McDermott a scoring path, but the baseline remains modest
Doug McDermott’s role has been elevated recently, with his last 5 games jumping to 8.8 PPG in 23.0 MPG versus a season mark of 5.1 PPG in 13.4 MPG. That said, his longer sample still sits right around his season average, and his recent production is coming with noticeable volatility. The matchup is playable from a pace standpoint, and his history vs this opponent is solid at 9.384615384615385 PPG in 17.53846153846154 MPG, but the best approach is to respect the season baseline more than the short-term spike. With Domantas Sabonis, Drew Eubanks, Nique Clifford, Precious Achiuwa, and Russell Westbrook all out, McDermott should keep seeing opportunity, though his ceiling remains mostly tied to three-point volume.
Stat Trends
PPG
8.8(↑ from 5.1)
RPG
2.2(↑ from 1.1)
APG
1.2(↑ from 0.5)
Key Matchup
No specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile is workable for perimeter scoring, with a 112.27 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a -0.098 three suppression mark, while his head-to-head sample shows 9.384615384615385 PPG across 13 games.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Evolution | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Doug McDermott▼ | Points | 5.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% | 9 | ✗ | |
Doug McDermott▼ | Rebounds | 1.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 1 | ✓ | |
Doug McDermott▼ | Assists | 0.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 2 | ✓ | |
Doug McDermott▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 1 | ✗ | |
Doug McDermott▼ | STL+BLK | 0.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 1 | ✗ | |
Doug McDermott▼ | PRA | 7.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | FLIP | 12 | ✗ |
ML Scout Analysis
R+A3UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)4/1233%Scorecard changed +3.0▼
P+R9.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/1258%Scorecard changed +3.0▼
P+A9.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/1258%Scorecard changed +3.0▼
Featured Pick
Doug McDermott
Threes OVER 1.5MEDIUM
This is his strongest category by season profile, with 1.6 made threes per game and 2.2 over the last 10. The recent minutes increase and his 2.8 FG3M average over the last 5 make the over the cleanest angle, even though his overall role is still rotation-level.
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