AI Model:

Cameron Johnson▼

DEN · SF

PPG

11.9

RPG

3.7

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

15.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.5

11.9

15.4

RPG-0.1

3.7

3.6

APG-0.1

2.3

2.2

SPG+0.5

0.7

1.2

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

OVER 1.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

1.5

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 10 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 6 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 17 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 15 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 18 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 20 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 6 pts

POR

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs POR: 19 pts

PHX

2026-03-24

2026-03-24 vs PHX: 14 pts

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

3PM

OVER 1.5BETMGM

79%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.7

13.1

RPG

3.4

4.2

APG

2.6

2.2

vs DAL (H2H)11 games

PPG

11.7

RPG

4.3

APG

1.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	27	53%	-8.6%	medium
Russell Westbrook	4	13	63%	+2.5%	medium
Naji Marshall	3	12	50%	-4.6%	medium
Julian Champagnie	3	10	83%

Johnson’s 3-point volume stands out, but scoring is priced fairly

Cameron Johnson is averaging 11.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 2.3 APG on 30.5 MPG this season, with his last 5 games ticking up to 15.4 PPG and 3.0 made threes. The recent scoring surge is real, but it’s above his season baseline and the trend is listed as down, so regression risk remains on the points side. His best statistical angle is perimeter volume, with 1.96 threes per game on the season and 2.5 over his last 10, while rebounds have also been steady enough for consideration. The opponent context is workable, but the safest read is that his point total is closer to his season norm than his recent hot stretch.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.4(↑ from 11.9)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.7)

APG

2.2(→ from 2.3)

3PM

3.0(↑ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

Opponent defense data shows a 119.04 defensive rating, 100 pace, 0.813 scoring suppression, and -1.393 three suppression. Key defender data is present, but no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed minutes/points allowed can be used to project a true head-to-head edge.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Cameron Johnson▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	79%HIGH	1/2	60%	1.5→2	2	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	FLIP	1	✗
Cameron Johnson▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	FLIP	12	✗
Cameron Johnson▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	FLIP	3	✗

ML Scout Analysis

FTM2UNDER46%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)5/2025%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

PTS13OVER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x7/2035%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

3PM2UNDER6%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PA4UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA19OVER30%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB4OVER3%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

AST3OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)4/2020%▼

Featured Pick

Cameron Johnson

Threes OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number on the board because his season average is 1.96 made threes and his last 10 jump to 2.5. The betmgm value prop shows an 8.1% edge and positive EV, making it the strongest option in his profile.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Naji Marshall	3	12	7	43%	50%
Max Christie	2	6	3	50%	75%
P.J. Washington	1	3	2	33%	33%
Cooper Flagg	3	3	7	33%	33%
Ryan Nembhard	3	2	3	50%	75%

threesOVER 1.579%HIGH

He averages 1.96 made threes per game on the season and 2.5 over his last 10, well above the 1.5 line. The value data shows an 8.1% edge at betmgm with +EV on the over.

reboundsOVER 3.566%MEDIUM

Season mean is 3.72 rebounds and the value prop shows a 7.0% edge on the over at this line. His recent 3.5 RPG and 3.48 home mean suggest a playable over, though variance is moderate.

pointsUNDER 11.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 11.9 PPG, but the line is inflated relative to his baseline and his trend is down. The value board also favors the under at this number with a positive edge.

assistsUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.3 APG on the season and 2.5 over the last 10, which is still not enough cushion for the over. With a standard deviation of 1.26, this is a fairly volatile stat and better left to the under side.

timelineOVER 1.5 PTS