Klay Thompson—

DAL · SG

PPG

12.0

RPG

2.1

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

14.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.2

12.0

14.2

RPG-1.3

2.1

0.8

APG-0.2

1.4

1.2

SPG+0.3

0.5

0.8

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

13.5

SAC

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs SAC: 8 pts

OKC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs OKC: 7 pts

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 24 pts

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 19 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 5 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 21 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 6 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 17 pts

LAC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAC: 12 pts

GSW

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs GSW: 15 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5STAKE

62%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

78%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

69%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

74%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

UNDER 1

72%

P+R

UNDER 16.5STAKE

66%

P+A

UNDER 14.5STAKE

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.6

14.3

RPG

1.4

1.7

APG

1.2

1.1

vs DEN (H2H)14 games

PPG

15.1

RPG

4.1

APG

2.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Trey Murphy III	3	7	50%	+3.2%	medium
Tim Hardaway Jr.	3	7	38%	-14.7%	medium
Rui Hachimura	3	7	33%	-6.4%	medium
Keon Ellis	2	6	50%

Klay’s scoring stays volume-dependent, but the threes prop has the cleanest edge

Klay Thompson is averaging 12.0 PPG, 2.1 RPG, and 1.4 APG on 22 MPG this season, with his last 5 pushing to 14.2 PPG but on just 24.2 MPG. His recent scoring is a bit stronger than his season baseline, but the last 20 sits at 11.9 PPG, which keeps the overall projection anchored near the mid-teens rather than a big leap. The best numbers in the data point to three-pointers, where he averages 3.0 seasonally and 3.4 over the last 5, and the provided value data shows positive edge on 2.5 made threes. With Dallas missing Kyrie Irving, D'Angelo Russell, and Dereck Lively II, usage can remain elevated, but his lower rebounding and assist profiles still make combo overs less attractive.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.2(↑ from 12.0)

RPG

0.8(↓ from 2.1)

APG

1.2(↓ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

The opponent defense data shows a 116.76 defensive rating, 100 pace, 0.301 scoring suppression, and -1.056 three suppression. Key defender data is available, but it does not specify a direct matchup advantage for Klay beyond the listed defensive profiles, so the main takeaway is no specific defender matchup data driving the projection.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Klay Thompson▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	8	✓
Klay Thompson▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	90%	0	✓
Klay Thompson▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✓
Klay Thompson▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✗
Klay Thompson▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Klay Thompson▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Klay Thompson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Klay Thompson▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Klay Thompson▼	P+R	16.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	8	✓
Klay Thompson▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	8	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA13.5OVER8%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.143▼

R+A2.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%▼

3PM2.5UNDER18%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x12/2060%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.076▼

P+A14UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

P+R13.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

PTS11.5UNDER17%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Klay Thompson

Threes OVER 2.5MEDIUM

This is the strongest angle in the dataset because his season mean is 3.0 made threes, his last 5 is 3.4, and value data shows a 4.8% edge at 2.5 threes on BetOnline. The over is still moderated by his typical minute load at 22 MPG and the general caution around overs, but the shot-volume profile supports it best.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tim Hardaway Jr.	3	7	4	25%	38%
Bruce Brown	3	4	0	0%	0%
Peyton Watson	3	3	6	75%	75%
Spencer Jones	2	2	3	100%	150%
Jamal Murray	3	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 13.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.0 PPG and his last 20 is 11.9 PPG, so 13.5 asks for more than his typical output. The recent 14.2 PPG over the last 5 is a bump, but not enough to fully override the season-long baseline.

reboundsUNDER 3.578%HIGH

He averages just 2.1 RPG on the season and 1.1 RPG over the last 10, well below 3.5. The role and recent game logs show very limited board production.

assistsUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

Klay is at 1.4 APG for the season and 1.3 over the last 10, so 1.5 is slightly above his usual range. The recent trend does not show enough assist volume to justify the over.

threesOVER 2.566%MEDIUM

He averages 3.0 made threes per game this season and 3.4 over the last 5, with value data showing a 4.8% edge at 2.5 threes. That is the clearest volume-based angle in the data.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 steals on the season but 0.8 over the last 5, so the over is live but not strong. This is a low-volume stat with moderate variance.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He is at only 0.3 blocks per game seasonally and 0.3 over the last 10. The under fits both the season profile and recent form.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.8 and recent is also 0.8, both well below a 1.5 threshold. Even with a decent last 5, the combined defensive stat is still too volatile for an over.

turnoversUNDER 172%HIGH

He is only at 0.8 turnovers per game over the last 10 and 1.1 over the last 20. That profile supports a low-turnover under.

prUNDER 16.566%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds average is about 14.15, and rebounds are trending down recently. The 16.5 line asks for a scoring spike plus board help that he usually does not provide.

paUNDER 14.561%MEDIUM

Using season means, points plus assists is about 13.4, so 14.5 sits above his baseline. His assist rate is too modest to make the over appealing.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS