AI Model:

Marvin Bagley III▲

DAL · C

PPG

10.0

RPG

6.1

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

8.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.4

10.0

8.6

RPG-0.5

6.1

5.6

APG-0.4

1.4

1.0

SPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

BPG-0.5

0.7

0.2

UNDER 10 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

SAC

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs SAC: 10 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 6 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 7 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 6 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 4 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 6 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 9 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 2 pts

LAC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAC: 17 pts

GSW

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs GSW: 9 pts

Over 10

Under 10

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10

64%

REB

OVER 6

58%

AST

UNDER 1.5

70%

3PM

OVER 0.5

54%

BLK

OVER 0.5

56%

OVER 1

57%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

PRA

UNDER 17.5

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.2

10.8

RPG

5.9

7.9

APG

1.0

1.4

vs DEN (H2H)10 games

PPG

11.4

RPG

5.2

APG

0.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Rudy Gobert	3	16	100%	+38.4%	medium
Evan Mobley	3	13	41%	-24.1%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	3	11	67%	+5.1%	medium
Myles Turner	3	11	70%

Minutes are stable, but Bagley’s scoring is trending below season level

Marvin Bagley III is averaging 10.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 1.4 APG on 19.9 MPG this season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 8.6 PPG over the last 5 and 7.6 over the last 10. His rebounding has held up better than his points, with 6.3 RPG over the last 10 and 6.1 for the season, while his passing remains a low-volume area. With multiple teammate absences, his role should stay relevant, but the recent scoring dip and moderate minute load argue for a cautious projection.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.6(↓ from 10.0)

RPG

5.6(↓ from 6.1)

APG

1.0(↓ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

He has recorded 10 games vs this opponent with averages of 11.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 0.9 APG, which is close to his normal production range. The listed defender data includes Nikola Jokić, Aaron Gordon, and Jamal Murray, but the provided data does not isolate a single matchup edge for Bagley.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Marvin Bagley III▼	Points	10	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	7	✓
Marvin Bagley III▼	Rebounds	6	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✗
Marvin Bagley III▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	70%	3	✗
Marvin Bagley III▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Marvin Bagley III▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Marvin Bagley III▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Marvin Bagley III▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Marvin Bagley III▼	PRA	17.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA16.5OVER1%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Line moved -2.0; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+A12UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R17.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A8OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Marvin Bagley III

Points UNDER 10.0MEDIUM

His season average is basically the line at 10.04, but the recent scoring trend is clearly weaker at 8.6 over the last 5 and 7.6 over the last 10. With over bias in mind, the under is still the cleaner side because his current form sits below the market line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nikola Jokić	1	5	6	40%	40%
Zeke Nnaji	1	4	0	0%	0%
Aaron Gordon	1	1	0	0%	0%
Jamal Murray	2	1	2	25%	25%
Bruce Brown	2	1	4	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 1064%MEDIUM

His season mean is 10.04, but the last 5 is only 8.6 and the last 10 is 7.6, which points to a lower current scoring baseline. He has also stayed below his season scoring rate in recent games despite similar minutes.

reboundsOVER 658%MEDIUM

Bagley’s rebounding is steadier than his scoring, with 6.1 RPG for the season, 6.3 over the last 10, and 6.53 in away games. The recent workload is still around 20 minutes, which supports a modest rebound floor.

assistsUNDER 1.570%HIGH

He averages just 1.39 APG for the season and 1.3 over the last 10, so the passing volume is limited. The recent trend is not strong enough to justify an over on a low-usage assist line.

threesOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.3 made threes per game for the season but 0.6 over the last 10, and he has shown some recent willingness to shoot from deep. This is still a volatile prop, so confidence stays modest.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

Bagley averages 0.7 BPG for the season and 0.8 over the last 20, giving him a real chance to clear a half-block line. The variance is meaningful, but his shot-blocking is above the threshold.

turnoversOVER 157%MEDIUM

He is at 1.0 TO per game over the season and 1.1 over the last 10, with some higher-turnover games in the recent log. A 1.0 line is playable to the over given his minutes and touch rate.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.17 and the last 10 is 0.8, both below a 1.5 threshold. The combo volatility makes the under the safer side.

praUNDER 17.560%MEDIUM

Using season production, his PRA profile is around 17.5, but the recent scoring drop lowers the ceiling. Combo props are higher variance, so this leans under unless his minutes spike.

timelineUNDER 10 PTS