AI Model:

Max Christie—

DAL · SG

PPG

12.5

RPG

3.3

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

11.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.3

12.5

11.2

RPG-0.5

3.3

2.8

APG-0.6

2.0

1.4

SPG+0.6

0.6

1.2

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

13.5

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 12 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 2 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 6 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 13 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 12 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 12 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 13 pts

LAC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAC: 7 pts

GSW

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs GSW: 15 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5STAKE

72%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

74%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

77%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

58%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

63%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

69%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 19.5

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.7

10.8

RPG

2.9

3.3

APG

0.6

2.1

vs DEN (H2H)7 games

PPG

7.1

RPG

1.6

APG

0.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Trey Murphy III	3	17	50%	+1.2%	medium
Michael Porter Jr.	3	16	66%	+10.2%	medium
CJ McCollum	4	16	42%	-2.6%	medium
Stephen Curry	2	13	60%

Christie’s scoring role is elevated, but Denver still makes the under appealing

Max Christie is averaging 12.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, and 2.0 APG on 29.3 MPG this season, with his last 20 games sitting at 11.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG, and 1.6 APG. The recent form is stable-to-slightly down in points and assists, and his last 10 scoring average has dipped to 10.1 PPG. Dallas is missing several rotation and usage pieces, which helps his minutes/shot volume, but the current market is still pricing him above his recent production. The matchup data also leans cautious, with Denver allowing just 7.142857142857143 PPG to Christie across 7 meetings, though those games came in only 15.285714285714286 MPG.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.2(↓ from 12.5)

RPG

2.8(↓ from 3.3)

APG

1.4(↓ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed defender context. Denver’s opponent profile shows a 116.76 defensive rating and 0.301 scoring suppression, which suggests a tougher scoring environment than the raw season average.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Max Christie▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	90%		9	✓
Max Christie▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	100%		1	✓
Max Christie▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	77%HIGH	1/2	90%		2	✓
Max Christie▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%		3	✓
Max Christie▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	60%		0	✗
Max Christie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	60%		0	✓
Max Christie▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%		0	✗
Max Christie▼	PRA	19.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	100%	—	12	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER24%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

AST1.5UNDER24%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x8/2040%+16.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA15.5UNDER54%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

3PM1.5UNDER6%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x13/2065%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.097; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

P+R12.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

P+A10.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)12/2060%▼

REB2.5OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)13/2065%+7.5% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.213▼

Featured Pick

Max Christie

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

This is the cleanest play because his season scoring average is 12.5 PPG, his last 10 is 10.1 PPG, and the provided value props strongly favor the under at 11.5 and 12.5. Even with teammates out and a possible usage bump, 13.5 still sits above the most relevant production markers.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jamal Murray	2	12	17	60%	75%
Cameron Johnson	2	4	5	50%	63%
Tim Hardaway Jr.	2	2	0	0%	0%
Peyton Watson	2	1	3	100%	150%
Nikola Jokić	2	1	5	50%	63%

pointsUNDER 13.572%HIGH

His season mean is 12.48 PPG and the last 10 is down to 10.1 PPG, both below this line. The recent value props also show a strong UNDER signal at 11.5 and 12.5, reinforcing that 13.5 is a bit rich.

reboundsUNDER 4.574%HIGH

Christie averages 3.32 RPG on the season and just 2.4 RPG over his last 10, well below 4.5. His rebound outputs have stayed in a narrow range, so this line asks for a clear outlier game.

assistsUNDER 2.577%HIGH

He averages 2.02 APG for the season but only 1.1 APG over the last 10 and 1.4 APG over the last 5. The assist line is above both his season and recent baselines, and his historical volatility is still modest for this prop.

threesOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

Christie averages 2.33 threes per game for the season and 2.3 over the last 5, so 2.5 is very close to his core output. His recent 3PM volume has held at 2.0+ in the last 20, making this a playable over despite limited edge.

stealsOVER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 20, with 1.2 over the last 5. At a 0.5 line, the over is supported by both season and recent rates.

blocksUNDER 0.569%MEDIUM

Christie averages only 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.3 over the last 20. Even with a few recent spike games, 0.5 is still above his normal baseline.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He combines 0.6 steals and 0.3 blocks per game for a 0.9 season stocks average, but his last 5 stocks are 1.8. This is a volatile combo prop, so the over is only a modest lean.

praUNDER 19.561%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, Christie projects around 17.8 PRA (12.5 + 3.3 + 2.0), below a 19.5 line. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is the safer side.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS