AI Model:

Naji Marshall▼

DAL · SF

PPG

15.1

RPG

4.7

APG

3.2

L5 PPG

21.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.9

15.1

21.0

RPG+0.1

4.7

4.8

APG+2.6

3.2

5.8

SPG0.0

1.0

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 13 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 8 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 5 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 17 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 25 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 32 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 4 pts

LAC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAC: 28 pts

GSW

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs GSW: 16 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5FANDUEL

74%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

66%

REB

OVER 4.5BETMGM

58%

3PM

OVER 0.5BETMGM

55%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

P+A

UNDER 18.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.6

16.3

RPG

5.1

3.6

APG

4.1

vs DEN (H2H)15 games

PPG

10.6

RPG

4.0

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	18	83%	+15.9%	medium
Deni Avdija	3	16	43%	-7.9%	medium
Jamal Murray	4	14	89%	+27.8%	medium
Keyonte George	4	13	80%

Marshall’s usage is elevated, but points projection still leans to the under

Naji Marshall is producing 15.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, and 3.2 APG on 29.6 MPG this season, with a strong recent scoring spike to 21.0 PPG over his last 5 games. That said, his last 10 is only 16.2 PPG and the overall trend is down, while his season-long shot profile and 29.6% three-point shooting add volatility. The matchup data is not especially favorable for scoring, and his head-to-head line against this opponent is well below tonight’s market with 10.6 PPG in 15 games. With multiple teammates out, his role stays meaningful, but the data still points to a more cautious points outlook than the recent heater suggests.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.0(↑ from 15.1)

RPG

4.8(→ from 4.7)

APG

5.8(↑ from 3.2)

Key Matchup

The key defender data lists Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokić, and Aaron Gordon, but there is no specific defender matchup data for Marshall. Denver’s opponent profile shows a 116.76 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 0.301 scoring suppression, which does not strongly support an aggressive over case.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Naji Marshall▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	60%		22	✗
Naji Marshall▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	FLIP	3	✓
Naji Marshall▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	4	✗
Naji Marshall▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	70%		1	✓
Naji Marshall▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	90%	FLIP	0	✓
Naji Marshall▼	P+A	18.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	FLIP	25	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5UNDER19%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Line moved +1.0; Value edge shifted -0.094▼

PRA22.5UNDER2%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Line moved +1.0▼

P+A20.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

REB3.5UNDER5%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x12/2060%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.077; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

AST3.5UNDER6%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Value edge changed +0.071; Odds moved materially; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R20.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Naji Marshall

Points UNDER 16.5HIGH

This is the best-supported play in the data: his season average is 15.1, his last 10 is 16.2, and his head-to-head average vs this opponent is just 10.6 across 15 games. The value props also show a strong UNDER edge at 16.5, while the recent 21.0 PPG surge looks more like a short-term spike than a sustainable new baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jamal Murray	4	14	27	79%	89%
Cameron Johnson	3	7	8	50%	75%
Nikola Jokić	3	4	9	50%	56%
Peyton Watson	4	4	2	25%	25%
Spencer Jones	4	4	4	67%	67%

pointsUNDER 16.574%HIGH

His season mean is 15.13 points and his last 10 is 16.2, so 16.5 is a thin threshold despite the 21.0 last-5 surge. The value data shows a strong UNDER lean at this number, and his 10.6 PPG in 15 games vs this opponent is well below the line.

assistsUNDER 3.566%MEDIUM

He averages 3.19 APG on the season and 4.3 over the last 10, but the recent 5.8 APG pace is above his baseline and less stable. With a 1.96 season standard deviation, this is playable but not a high-confidence over.

reboundsOVER 4.558%MEDIUM

Marshall’s season rebound average is 4.74, and his home split is 5.1 RPG with 33.1 MPG. The edge is modest, but this is the cleanest rebound side if looking for a low bar.

threesOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.85 threes per game on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, so one make is a realistic baseline. Still, the 29.6% season three-point rate keeps the confidence capped.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.13 and his recent mean is 0.8, so 1.5 is above both baselines. With only 0.1 blocks per game and a recent decline in stocks, the under is the safer side.

paUNDER 18.560%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists profile is 18.33 using the provided season means, essentially right on the line. Given the over-bias caution and his opponent scoring history, the under is slightly preferred.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS