Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 4 | 17 | 80% | +19.6% | medium |
| Cooper Flagg | 4 | 13 | 65% | +8.4% | medium |
| Kawhi Leonard | 2 | 10 | 65% | +11.1% | low |
| Alperen Sengun | 4 | 9 | 60% |
Spencer Jones is in a down trend, with his last 5 at 4.4 PPG and his season mark at 5.9 PPG while his minutes have dipped to 20.4 in that span. The matchup is not a clean scoring boost: Dallas has a 0.813 scoring suppression rate, though the opponent absences do create a softer overall environment. His recent production has been volatile, but his rebounding and defensive activity remain the most reliable paths to value at his current usage level.
No specific defender matchup data is available. Dallas is allowing a 0.813 scoring suppression rate, which is a modest headwind for his points output despite the opponent injury situation.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spencer Jones▼ | Points | 7.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 2/2 | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
Spencer Jones▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 2 | ✓ |
Spencer Jones▼ | Assists | 0.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 0 | ✗ |
Spencer Jones▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Spencer Jones▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
Spencer Jones▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
Spencer Jones▼ | Turnovers | 2 | UNDER | 75%HIGH | — | 100% | 0 | ✓ |
Spencer Jones▼ | P+R | 11.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 6 | ✓ |
His turnover profile is extremely low at 0.3 per game over both the last 10 and last 20, making 2.0 a very inflated threshold. This is the cleanest mismatch between line and recent production in the data provided.
| medium |
| Julius Randle | 2 | 9 | 25% | -25.4% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 4 | 13 | 22 | 59% | 65% |
| Ryan Nembhard | 4 | 6 | 4 | 67% | 67% |
| Naji Marshall | 4 | 5 | 8 | 60% | 60% |
| P.J. Washington | 2 | 4 | 8 | 100% | 100% |
| Jaden Hardy | 2 | 3 | 2 | 33% | 33% |
His season mean is 5.9 PPG and last 5 is 4.4, both below 7.5, with recent minutes at 20.4. The under is also supported by his last 20 scoring at 4.8 PPG and a down trend.
He averages 3.3 RPG on the season and 3.7 over the last 10, both short of 4.5. While the last 5 is 4.0, that still leaves little margin and his rebounding role has not consistently cleared this number.
He averages 0.8 APG for the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low bar. The assists prop is supported by his recent game logs showing multiple 2+ assist outings in this sample.
His season average is 0.8 SPG and the last 10 is 0.7, both above 0.5. This is a lower-variance way to target his defensive activity than scoring.
He averages 0.5 BPG on the season, but his recent block rate is only 0.6 in the last 5 and 0.5 in the last 10, making this a marginal line. With the over priced at plus money, the under is still the safer side in a low-volume stat.
He averages 1.31 stocks on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, which sits just under a 1.5 threshold. The line is high relative to his baseline and his defensive counting stats have not consistently reached that level.
He is at just 0.3 turnovers over the last 10 and 0.3 over the last 20, so 2.0 would be far above his normal range. This is one of the strongest under looks available based on the provided data.
His season points plus rebounds profile is well below this line, with 5.9 PPG and 3.3 RPG. The combination prop adds variance, and his recent scoring trend is down.