AI Model:

Tim Hardaway Jr.▲

DEN · PF

PPG

14.0

RPG

2.6

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

13.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.6

14.0

13.4

RPG+0.8

2.6

3.4

APG+0.4

1.4

1.8

SPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

OVER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

13.5

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 6 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 28 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 14 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 1 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 20 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 9 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 11 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 23 pts

POR

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs POR: 6 pts

PHX

2026-03-24

2026-03-24 vs PHX: 18 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 13.5STAKE

58%

REB

OVER 2.5STAKE

56%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

55%

3PM

OVER 2.5

60%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

69%

P+R

UNDER 16.5STAKE

63%

P+A

UNDER 14.5STAKE

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.6

13.0

RPG

2.9

2.3

APG

1.2

1.5

vs DAL (H2H)5 games

PPG

11.4

RPG

2.4

APG

2.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Amen Thompson	4	16	43%	-2.2%	medium
Donte DiVincenzo	4	15	45%	-5.1%	medium
Klay Thompson	3	12	100%	+21.6%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	11	65%

Hardaway’s scoring is steady, but the line is tight

Tim Hardaway Jr. is producing right around his season scoring level, with 14.0 PPG on the year and 13.6 over his last 10. His recent minutes have dipped to 24.4 MPG from 27.1 MPG season-long, which keeps his ceiling in check even though he flashed 18 and 23 points in two of his last four games. The matchup profile is mixed: Denver is listed with a 119.04 defensive rating, but the biggest scoring edge comes from opponent absences that thin the available rotation. With his volatility and a short recent floor, the points market is usable but not a high-confidence over spot.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.4(↓ from 14.0)

RPG

3.4(↑ from 2.6)

APG

1.8(↑ from 1.4)

3PM

3.2(↑ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

He does have specific defender matchup data: Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, and Ryan Nembhard are the listed key defenders, with no single matchup dominating the sample. The opponent’s 119.04 defensive rating is weak, which helps, but the scoring suppression figure of 0.813 and 1.393 three-point suppression suggest the environment is not fully ideal for a big shooting night.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tim Hardaway Jr.▼	Points	13.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	4	✗
Tim Hardaway Jr.▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✗
Tim Hardaway Jr.▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✓
Tim Hardaway Jr.▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	1	✗
Tim Hardaway Jr.▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Tim Hardaway Jr.▼	P+R	16.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✓
Tim Hardaway Jr.▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	6	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS12.5UNDER14%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

PRA16.5UNDER18%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (13/20)6/2030%▼

3PA6.5UNDER21%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

FTM1.5UNDER27%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+R15OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A13.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

REB2OVER18%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

AST1UNDER1%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PM2UNDER20%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER14%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Tim Hardaway Jr.

3PM OVER 2.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest volume-based angle because his season mean is 2.87 made threes and his last 10 jump to 3.3. The line sits below both baselines, and unlike points, the three-point trend is supported by repeatable shot volume rather than only scoring volatility.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Klay Thompson	3	12	12	67%	100%
Ryan Nembhard	4	5	4	67%	67%
Naji Marshall	4	4	9	50%	56%
Caleb Martin	3	4	4	100%	100%
D'Angelo Russell	2	3	5	40%	50%

pointsOVER 13.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 14.0 PPG and his last 10 are 13.6, so 13.5 is right on the median outcome. The recent role is slightly lower at 24.4 MPG, but opponent absences can support his usage enough to edge this over.

reboundsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

He averages 2.6 RPG for the season and 2.6 over his last 10, with 3.4 RPG over the last 5. This is a low-volume stat, but the line is modest and his recent rebound trend is slightly better than season baseline.

assistsOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He is at 1.4 APG season-long and 1.7 over the last 10, so this is a narrow edge rather than a strong one. The recent bump in playmaking keeps the over in play, but the season mean is still below the line.

threesOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.87 made threes per game on the season and 3.3 over the last 10, both above 2.5. His 3PT volume is real at 3.3 attempts per game over the last 10, making this one of his cleaner overs.

stealsUNDER 0.569%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.5 steals per game on the season and 0.4 over the last 10. With low steal volume and limited defensive event rates, the under is the more stable side.

prUNDER 16.563%MEDIUM

His season scoring and rebounding profile sums to 16.63 PR, but his recent minutes are down and his last 5 points average is only 13.4. With moderate variance, the under has the better risk-adjusted profile.

paUNDER 14.566%MEDIUM

He averages 15.4 P+A on the season, but that combines a 14.0 scoring baseline with just 1.4 assists and his recent minutes have slipped. The assist number is still too low to make this a comfortable over.

timelineOVER 13.5 PTS