AI Model:

Alperen Sengun▲

HOU · C

PPG

20.5

RPG

9.0

APG

6.2

L5 PPG

20.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.3

20.5

20.8

RPG-1.0

9.0

8.0

APG+1.0

6.2

7.2

SPG-0.2

1.2

1.0

BPG0.0

1.0

OVER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

WAS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs WAS: 32 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 17 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 28 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 16 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 14 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 10 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 27 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 15 pts

MIA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIA: 19 pts

CHI

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs CHI: 33 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

REB

UNDER 9.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

63%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

59%

OVER 3.5

64%

PRA

UNDER 35.5

57%

P+A

OVER 26.5

55%

R+A

UNDER 18.5

60%

OVER 0.5

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.8

18.4

RPG

8.8

7.3

APG

6.5

5.6

vs MIN (H2H)13 games

PPG

19.9

RPG

10.2

APG

4.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nikola Jokić	4	24	58%	-0.0%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	4	20	50%	-5.0%	medium
Rudy Gobert	2	14	57%	+4.7%	low
Luke Kornet	3	13	100%

Sengun’s usage is intact, but the matchup and elevated lines keep the edge modest

Alperen Sengun is averaging 20.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 6.2 APG on 33.5 MPG this season, and his last 5 games show a small uptick in assists at 7.2 APG with steady scoring at 20.8 PPG. The absence of Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams supports his role, but Minnesota’s defense context is tougher, with a 114.45 defensive rating and negative scoring suppression. His season vs. opponent history is still productive at 19.9 PPG and 10.2 RPG over 13 games, but the current books are pricing his points and rebounds near that range. With his recent scoring staying close to season norms and no major over edge on the main lines, the safer lean is toward selective overs only where the market is softer.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.8(→ from 20.5)

RPG

8.0(↓ from 9.0)

APG

7.2(↑ from 6.2)

Key Matchup

Rudy Gobert is listed among the key defenders, and the opponent profile shows a 114.45 defensive rating with negative scoring suppression. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond that, so the analysis should lean on the team-level defensive context rather than guessing a one-on-one assignment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Alperen Sengun▼	Points	19.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	FLIP	30	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	Rebounds	9.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		6	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	FLIP	3	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%		0	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	FLIP	4	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	80%	2.5→3	4	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	50%		1	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	PRA	35.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	31.5→35.5	39	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	P+A	26.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	FLIP	33	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	R+A	18.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	15.5→18.5	9	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PRA33.5UNDER8%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

REB8.5UNDER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+8.1% edge▼

P+R29.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

PTS18.5UNDER12%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

3PA1.5UNDER11%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 5x10/2050%▼

FTM2.5UNDER0%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 5x10/2050%▼

P+A27UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

AST5.5UNDER33%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%+9.1% edge▼

BLK1UNDER43%gbt_blocksAvoid (7/20)7/2035%▼

FTA4UNDER11%gbtAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Alperen Sengun

Points OVER 19.5MEDIUM

This is the best blend of price and baseline, with Sengun at 20.5 PPG for the season and 21.1 in the last 10. Multiple books show positive edge on 19.5, including 5.1% at BetRivers and 4.6% at FanDuel, making it the strongest value side in the profile.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Rudy Gobert	2	14	8	57%	57%
Julius Randle	2	4	13	60%	60%
Kyle Anderson	1	4	3	50%	50%
Jaden McDaniels	2	2	9	40%	45%
Donte DiVincenzo	2	1	5	50%	63%

pointsOVER 19.561%MEDIUM

Season mean is 20.49 points and recent mean is 21.1, so 19.5 is below both baselines. The value data also shows a 5.1% edge on the 19.5 line at BetRivers and a 4.6% edge at FanDuel, though this is still a moderate-confidence over because the matchup is not soft.

reboundsUNDER 9.558%MEDIUM

He averages 9.02 rebounds on the season and 8.4 over the last 10, which sits below a 9.5 line. His under on 9.5 is supported by the current market and the fact that his recent rebound trend is below season level.

assistsOVER 5.557%MEDIUM

Sengun is at 6.18 APG for the season and 7.2 APG over the last 5, so 5.5 is below his core production range. The VanVleet absence reinforces playmaking responsibility, but the recent assist volatility keeps confidence only moderate.

stealsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 steals per game on the season and only 1.0 in the last 5, which is below 1.5. Even with active defensive involvement, this line is elevated relative to his baseline.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

His season block average is 1.0 and he has 1.0 in the last 5, so 0.5 is a low bar. The main risk is variance, but his shot-blocking baseline comfortably supports this side.

stocksUNDER 2.559%MEDIUM

Season stocks are 2.23 and recent last-10 stocks are 1.4, so a 2.5 combo line is asking for a ceiling game. Because stocks are volatile and his recent combined defensive production has cooled, the under is the safer lean.

turnoversOVER 3.564%MEDIUM

He is averaging 3.0 turnovers in the last 5 and 4.2 over the last 10, clearly above a projected 3.5 line. With expanded creation duties, his turnover volume remains elevated even if scoring stays efficient.

praUNDER 35.557%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 35.7, but combo props carry added variance and his last-10 points/rebounds/assists do not create a strong cushion. Given the caution on combo props, the under is slightly preferable at this number.

paOVER 26.555%MEDIUM

He combines for 26.7 points plus assists on the season, and the VanVleet absence supports more ball-handling. Still, the line sits close enough to the mean that this is only a mild lean.

raUNDER 18.560%MEDIUM

Season RA is 18.0 and last-10 RA is 14.8, both below 18.5. With rebounds trending down from season pace, the under is the cleaner side.

double_doubleOVER 0.567%MEDIUM

Sengun routinely generates double-double chances with 20.5 PPG and 9.0 RPG, and his recent 33-point, 13-rebound game shows the ceiling is present. The probability is solid, though not dominant, because rebounds have been slightly below season average recently.

timelineOVER 19.5 PTS