AI Model:

Bones Hyland▲

MIN · SG

PPG

8.2

RPG

1.7

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

16.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+8.4

8.2

16.6

RPG-0.1

1.7

1.6

APG-0.2

2.6

2.4

SPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

TOR

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs TOR: 3 pts

ORL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ORL: 9 pts

LAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs LAL: 11 pts

LAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs LAC: 10 pts

GSW

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs GSW: 11 pts

OKC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs OKC: 3 pts

PHX

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHX: 22 pts

UTA

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs UTA: 18 pts

POR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs POR: 17 pts

BOS

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs BOS: 23 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5WILLIAMHILL_US

78%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

84%

REB

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

76%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

STL

UNDER 0.8

63%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

70%

UNDER 2

66%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

68%

PRA

UNDER 28.5

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.6

10.1

RPG

1.8

1.0

APG

2.2

2.6

vs HOU (H2H)7 games

PPG

7.9

RPG

1.3

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylen Wells	3	7	67%	+10.0%	medium
Jeremiah Fears	1	7	0%	-45.6%	low
Scoot Henderson	3	6	30%	-15.6%	medium
Will Richard	3	6	0%

Bones has a usage bump without Edwards, but the books still shade him to the under

Bones Hyland’s recent production is clearly up, with 16.6 PPG over the last 5 games versus 8.2 PPG on the season, and his minutes have climbed from 15.8 season-long to 23.6 in that same span. The big caveat is regression: his last-5 scoring is more than 20% above his season average, while his season-long profile and head-to-head history vs Houston both point lower. With Anthony Edwards out, his role can stay elevated, but the value market is still heavily leaning under across points, assists, rebounds, and threes.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.6(↑ from 8.2)

APG

2.4(→ from 2.6)

RPG

1.6(→ from 1.7)

3PM

2.3(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Houston allows a pace of 100 with defensive rating 109.99, but the opponent context also shows scoring suppression of -1.223 and three suppression of -0.518, which supports a more conservative scoring projection.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Bones Hyland▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	60%	8	✓
Bones Hyland▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	1/2	90%	8	✗
Bones Hyland▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	1/2	80%	0	✓
Bones Hyland▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Bones Hyland▼	Steals	0.8	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Bones Hyland▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	80%	1	✗
Bones Hyland▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Bones Hyland▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Bones Hyland▼	PRA	28.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	16	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA19.5UNDER19%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x6/2030%+18.1% edge▼

PTS13.5UNDER13%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x7/2035%+11.7% edge▼

FTA0.5OVER5%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved HIGH to LOW▼

REB2.5UNDER4%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x6/2030%+12.4% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.319▼

3PA6UNDER31%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

P+R13UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

AST3.5UNDER24%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%+13.1% edge▼

FTM0.5UNDER11%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

R+A4.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

P+A14UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

3PM2.5UNDER7%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Bones Hyland

Assists UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because his season average is 2.59 APG, recent average is 2.4 APG, and the value data gives the under a 37.4% edge at DraftKings. Even with Anthony Edwards out increasing role, the assist line is still well above his normal output.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Reed Sheppard	2	5	11	50%	69%
Aaron Holiday	1	3	3	100%	150%
Amen Thompson	2	2	0	0%	0%
Josh Okogie	2	2	0	0%	0%
Tari Eason	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 15.578%HIGH

His season mean is 8.23 PPG and his vs-opponent mark is only 7.857 PPG in 7 games. Even with the recent surge to 16.6 PPG, that level is well above baseline and the market value data shows strong under support.

assistsUNDER 4.584%HIGH

He averages 2.59 APG on the season and 2.4 APG over the last 5, far below 4.5. The value prop data shows a 37.4% edge on the under, making this the strongest lean.

reboundsUNDER 2.576%HIGH

Bones is at 1.66 RPG on the season and just 1.0 RPG over the last 10. Even with more minutes, the rebound profile stays limited and the under is supported by the value data.

threesUNDER 2.569%MEDIUM

He averages 1.52 made threes per game on the season, below a 2.5 line, and Houston’s three suppression is negative at -0.518. Recent volume is up, but the season baseline still favors the under.

stealsUNDER 0.863%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 steals per game on the season and 0.5 over the last 10, which does not clear a 0.8 expectation. The recent uptick is not enough to offset the lower season baseline.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

He averages just 0.2 blocks per game on the season and 0.3 over the last 10. That is well below a 0.5 line, so the under is the clear side.

turnoversUNDER 266%MEDIUM

His season turnover average is 1.0 and last-10 is 1.3, both under 2.0. Even with a bigger role, the profile does not point to a high turnover game.

stocksUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

He averages 0.77 stocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 10. That is still below a 1.5 combined line.

praUNDER 28.561%MEDIUM

His season scoring, rebounding, and assist baseline adds to 12.5 PRA, while the recent spike is inflated by minutes and shot volume. Combo props carry higher variance, and his season profile still points under.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS