AI Model:

Donte DiVincenzo▲

MIN · PG

PPG

12.2

RPG

4.4

APG

4.0

L5 PPG

9.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.0

12.2

9.2

RPG-0.6

4.4

3.8

APG-1.0

4.0

3.0

SPG-0.5

1.3

0.8

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

TOR

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs TOR: 16 pts

ORL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ORL: 0 pts

LAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs LAL: 8 pts

LAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs LAC: 6 pts

GSW

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs GSW: 7 pts

OKC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs OKC: 16 pts

PHX

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHX: 0 pts

UTA

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs UTA: 9 pts

POR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs POR: 13 pts

BOS

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs BOS: 8 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5FANDUEL

68%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

56%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

3PM

UNDER 2.5BETMGM

57%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

63%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

61%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

55%

UNDER 2

58%

P+R

UNDER 17.5STAKE

52%

P+A

UNDER 16.5STAKE

50%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.1

12.4

RPG

3.8

4.1

APG

4.2

2.6

vs HOU (H2H)13 games

PPG

10.2

RPG

4.7

APG

3.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tim Hardaway Jr.	4	21	100%	+37.2%	medium
Kris Dunn	4	17	19%	-28.1%	medium
Amen Thompson	2	16	80%	+39.4%	low
Collin Gillespie	3	14	65%

DiVincenzo’s role is intact, but the scoring profile points to an under

Donte DiVincenzo is still playing a steady workload at 30.8 MPG on the season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 9.2 PPG over the last 5 and 8.3 PPG over the last 10. With Anthony Edwards out, his usage support is real, yet the recent game log shows volatility with outputs of 0, 6, 7, 8, 9, 13, and 16 points, which makes his scoring projection less stable than his minutes. The matchup adds some resistance too, as Houston’s defense data shows a 109.99 defensive rating and negative scoring suppression, and DiVincenzo’s season scoring average of 12.2 is already above his recent form. The cleanest angle is to lean under on points and be cautious with combo props given the variance.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.2(↓ from 12.2)

RPG

3.8(↓ from 4.4)

APG

3.0(↓ from 4.0)

Stocks

1.4(↓ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

Houston’s defense data shows a 109.99 defensive rating, pace of 100, and negative scoring suppression, which is a modest drag on scoring props. There is no specific defender matchup data to isolate a single on-ball stopper, so the read is based on the team-level defensive profile and the listed key defenders’ limited matchup sample.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Donte DiVincenzo▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		17	✗
Donte DiVincenzo▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		3	✓
Donte DiVincenzo▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		2	✓
Donte DiVincenzo▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		5	✗
Donte DiVincenzo▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	90%		2	✗
Donte DiVincenzo▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	80%		0	✓
Donte DiVincenzo▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	70%		2	✗
Donte DiVincenzo▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	80%	FLIP	2	✗
Donte DiVincenzo▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	—	20	✗
Donte DiVincenzo▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	50%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		19	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

PRA17.5UNDER32%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

P+A14OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

REB3.5UNDER37%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 7x7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER68%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 8x6/2030%+12.0% edge▼

3PA7UNDER32%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER24%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)6/2030%▼

3PM2.5UNDER37%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 8x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Donte DiVincenzo

Points UNDER 12.5HIGH

This is supported by both the market and the recent form: his season scoring average is 12.2, his last 5 is 9.2, and the value data shows a 10.0% edge on the UNDER at 12.5. With recent games repeatedly landing below this number, the under is the strongest play on the board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Amen Thompson	2	16	8	80%	80%
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	4	3	14%	21%
Josh Okogie	1	3	0	0%	0%
Reed Sheppard	2	2	0	0%	0%
Kevin Durant	2	1	6	67%	67%

pointsUNDER 12.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.2, but the last 5 is only 9.2 and the value data shows a 10.0% edge on the UNDER at this line. The recent scoring pattern is volatile, and the game log includes multiple sub-10 point outings.

reboundsUNDER 4.556%MEDIUM

He averages 4.4 rebounds on the season and 4.1 over the last 10, which is close to the line but slightly below it. The recent trend is not strong enough to justify an OVER with high confidence.

assistsUNDER 3.554%MEDIUM

Season assists are 4.0, but the recent mean is down to 2.6 and his last 5 is 3.0. That gap versus recent form makes the UNDER more appealing despite his season average.

threesUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.94 threes on the season, but recent makes have fallen to 2.0 per game. The under is safer than chasing an over in a lower-efficiency stretch.

stealsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He is at 1.3 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, below this line. The recent dip in defensive counting stats supports the UNDER.

blocksUNDER 0.561%MEDIUM

His season block average is 0.4 and recent is 0.6, but overall volume is still low for a reliable OVER. With a 0.5 line, the UNDER remains the cleaner lean.

stocksUNDER 1.555%MEDIUM

Season stocks are 1.72 and last 5 is 1.4, but the recent mean is still below the combined bar when variance is considered. This is not strong enough for an aggressive OVER.

turnoversUNDER 258%MEDIUM

He is at 1.5 turnovers over the last 10 and 1.8 over the last 5, which is below a 2.0 threshold. The recent distribution suggests the UNDER is more likely.

prUNDER 17.552%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 16.6, and recent form is lower because scoring has cooled. Combo props carry more variance, so the UNDER is preferred.

paUNDER 16.550%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists is 16.2, but recent scoring and assist trends are both down. This is close enough to the line that caution is warranted, but the UNDER gets the nod.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS