AI Model:

Julius Randle▼

MIN · PF

PPG

20.9

RPG

6.8

APG

5.1

L5 PPG

22.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.7

20.9

22.6

RPG-1.0

6.8

5.8

APG-0.3

5.1

4.8

SPG+0.9

1.1

2.0

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

22.5

TOR

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs TOR: 17 pts

ORL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ORL: 14 pts

LAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs LAL: 14 pts

LAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs LAC: 11 pts

GSW

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs GSW: 10 pts

OKC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs OKC: 32 pts

PHX

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHX: 32 pts

UTA

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs UTA: 21 pts

POR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs POR: 19 pts

BOS

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs BOS: 9 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5BETMGM

66%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

AST

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

54%

OVER 3

57%

P+R

OVER 25.5STAKE

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.4

13.4

RPG

7.0

6.5

APG

4.2

4.5

vs HOU (H2H)10 games

PPG

26.9

RPG

7.4

APG

4.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Rui Hachimura	4	23	70%	+12.0%	medium
Nikola Jokić	4	22	73%	+18.7%	medium
DeMar DeRozan	4	16	50%	-2.5%	medium
Jerami Grant	4	15	50%

Randle gets a usage bump, but recent efficiency points to a cautious scoring outlook

Julius Randle’s season line sits at 20.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 5.1 APG across 33 MPG, but his recent production has been uneven with last 10 averages of 17.9 PPG and 3.6 APG. The injury context matters: Anthony Edwards is out, which should free up more usage and playmaking for Randle, while Steven Adams is out for the Rockets, slightly improving the rebound environment. Still, his last 20 scoring mark is 18.2 and his recent trend is down, so the market looks a bit inflated on points despite the increased role.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.6(↑ from 20.9)

RPG

5.8(↓ from 6.8)

APG

4.8(↓ from 5.1)

Key Matchup

Julius Randle’s head-to-head history versus this opponent is strong at 26.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 4.9 APG over 10 games, and the opposing defense profile shows a 109.99 defensive rating with a 100 pace. With no specific defender matchup data on the available list, the key context is the team-level environment and the absence of Steven Adams on the opposing side.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Julius Randle▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	21.5→22.5	24	✗
Julius Randle▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	5.5→6.5	6	✓
Julius Randle▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	FLIP	6	✓
Julius Randle▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%		0	✓
Julius Randle▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		2	✓
Julius Randle▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%		2	✓
Julius Randle▼	Turnovers	3	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	2.5→3	5	✓
Julius Randle▼	P+R	25.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	FLIP	30	✓

ML Scout Analysis

REB6.5OVER1%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼

P+A22.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

PTS23.5UNDER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%+17.6% edge▼

PRA35.5UNDER36%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%+14.4% edge▼

R+A11OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

3PA3UNDER42%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

FTA6.5UNDER17%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

P+R25UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x8/2040%▼

FTM4UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

AST4.5UNDER27%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%+5.3% edge▼

STL1UNDER56%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Julius Randle

Rebounds OVER 5.5HIGH

This is the best combination of form, role, and value: 6.8 rebounds per game season-long, 6.94 at home, and a 7.7% edge from the provided value props. The underwhelming recent scoring makes rebounds the cleaner path to production, especially with Anthony Edwards out and Steven Adams out on the other side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	12	4	33%	33%
Alperen Sengun	2	8	2	20%	20%
Kevin Durant	2	5	13	67%	92%
Amen Thompson	2	2	0	0%	0%
Dorian Finney-Smith	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 22.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 20.9, while the last 10 is 17.9 and the last 20 is 18.2, which is below this number. Even with Anthony Edwards out, the recent scoring dip and 33 standard deviation context make the under more appealing than chasing the last-5 bump.

reboundsOVER 5.569%MEDIUM

Randle averages 6.8 rebounds on the season and 6.94 at home, with Steven Adams out helping the rebound profile. The value data shows a 7.7% edge on the over, making this the cleanest positive-EV angle.

assistsOVER 4.556%MEDIUM

He averages 5.1 assists on the season and has a 5.25 home mean, but the last 10 has fallen to 3.6. The line is close enough to season production to keep the over live, though it is not as strong as the rebounds side.

threesUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages only 1.35 threes per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, below this threshold. With recent volume sliding, the under fits better than relying on a 1.5 make line.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

Randle averages 1.1 steals on the season and 1.6 stocks recently, so clearing 0.5 is well within his range. The last-5 spike to 2.0 steals adds support, though steals remain volatile.

stocksOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.38, but the last 10 sits at 1.6 and the last 5 at 2.2. This is a high-variance category, so the over is playable but not a high-confidence spot.

turnoversOVER 357%MEDIUM

He has been at 3.2 turnovers in the last 5 and 3.2 in the last 10, with 3.0 over the last 20. With a bigger creation burden likely without Anthony Edwards, turnovers remain elevated.

prOVER 25.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds total is 27.7, and the line sits below that at 25.5. The recent scoring dip makes this less comfortable than rebounds alone, but the number is still workable.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS