AI Model:

Reed Sheppard▲

HOU · SG

PPG

13.5

RPG

2.8

APG

3.4

L5 PPG

14.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.9

13.5

14.4

RPG-0.2

2.8

2.6

APG+2.6

3.4

6.0

SPG+0.9

1.5

2.4

BPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

15.5

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 17 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 17 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 7 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 18 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 11 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 11 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 14 pts

MIA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIA: 23 pts

CHI

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs CHI: 13 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

71%

3PM

OVER 2.5BETMGM

63%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

61%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

67%

OVER 2.5

58%

PRA

UNDER 15.5STAKE

66%

P+A

UNDER 15.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.2

14.4

RPG

3.4

3.8

APG

4.6

4.5

vs MIN (H2H)4 games

PPG

4.3

RPG

0.8

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Bruce Brown	4	14	50%	+6.8%	medium
Nique Clifford	4	13	56%	+6.8%	medium
Davion Mitchell	2	12	33%	-9.9%	low
John Konchar	3	10	0%

Sheppard’s minutes bump boosts assists, but scoring faces a tough regression spot

Reed Sheppard is trending up overall, with his last-5 at 14.4 PPG, 6.0 APG, and 31.2 MPG versus season marks of 13.5 PPG, 3.4 APG, and 26.4 MPG. The biggest role driver is Fred VanVleet being out, which supports his playmaking and keeps him on the floor more than his season baseline. However, his points outlook is less attractive versus a Timberwolves defense with 114.45 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -0.219 scoring suppression, and his season vs-opponent scoring is just 4.25 PPG in 4 games. With recent usage already elevated, the strongest edge is on assists, while points and combo volume look more fragile.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.4(↑ from 13.5)

APG

6.0(↑ from 3.4)

RPG

2.6(→ from 2.8)

STL+BLK

3.2(↑ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, but the Timberwolves profile points to a tougher scoring environment with a 114.45 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -0.219 scoring suppression. Opponent three suppression is -0.383, which makes it harder for a volume shooter to beat a points-heavy projection.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Reed Sheppard▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	60%	FLIP	10	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		8	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	71%HIGH	2/2	40%		3	✗
Reed Sheppard▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		2	✗
Reed Sheppard▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		2	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		0	✗
Reed Sheppard▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	—	90%	1.5→2	2	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%		2	✗
Reed Sheppard▼	PRA	15.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	—	21	✗
Reed Sheppard▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	FLIP	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA21.5UNDER2%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x12/2060%▼

PTS13.5UNDER22%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

REB3.5OVER6%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

STL1.5UNDER16%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

3PM2.5UNDER33%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)14/2070%▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

AST3.5OVER2%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

P+A20UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

3PA8UNDER22%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Reed Sheppard

Assists OVER 3.5HIGH

Fred VanVleet is out, and that directly supports Sheppard’s ball-handling and distribution load. His last-5 assist average is 6.0, last-10 is 4.6, and his season mean is only 3.4, so the role change provides the clearest path to clearing this line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Donte DiVincenzo	2	7	8	43%	57%
Mike Conley	2	4	4	33%	50%
Jaylen Clark	1	3	0	0%	0%
Bones Hyland	2	3	0	0%	0%
Rudy Gobert	2	1	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 15.578%HIGH

Season mean is 13.5 PPG, and the last-5 bump to 14.4 is not enough to justify an over at 15.5. The Timberwolves also show 0.219 scoring suppression, and his vs-opponent history is only 4.25 PPG across 4 games.

reboundsOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.8 RPG on the season and 3.3 RPG over the last 10, with 3.11 RPG in home splits. This is a modest edge only, so confidence stays moderate.

assistsOVER 3.571%HIGH

The minutes and role bump from Fred VanVleet being out is the key driver, and his last-5 assist average is 6.0 with 4.6 over the last 10. The season mean is 3.4, but current usage supports a higher projection than that baseline.

threesOVER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.67 made threes on the season and 2.9 over the last 10, with 4.1 in home splits and 3.27 in b2b context. The standard deviation is manageable relative to the mean, but the line still sits below his season average.

stealsOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.5 steals per game on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, with 2.4 steals in the last 5. The line is right at his season average, so this is a playable but not high-confidence over.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 blocks on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, so the 0.5 line is below his typical production. Variance is present, but the recent block trend supports a lean over.

stocksOVER 1.567%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.16 and the last-5 has jumped to 3.2, which keeps this above the 1.5 threshold. This is one of the steadier defensive-impact props in his profile.

turnoversOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He is at 2.5 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.9 over the last 10, with the expanded playmaking role adding ball-handling responsibility. The assist bump comes with turnover risk.

praUNDER 15.566%MEDIUM

This combo prop is more volatile, and his scoring projection is capped by the matchup while rebounds are modest. Given the season averages and the over-bias caution, the under is safer than forcing an over.

paUNDER 15.564%MEDIUM

His points average is 13.5 and assists are 3.4, but the points side is not strong enough to support a comfortable over on 15.5. Combo variance makes the under the more conservative call.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Sheppard’s minutes bump boosts assists, but scoring faces a tough regression spot

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 15.5 PTS