AI Model:

Deandre Ayton—

LAL · C

PPG

12.5

RPG

8.4

APG

0.9

L5 PPG

10.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.3

12.5

10.2

RPG-0.2

8.4

8.2

APG-0.3

0.9

0.6

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 0 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 9 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 7 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 16 pts

MIA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIA: 6 pts

ORL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ORL: 9 pts

DET

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs DET: 13 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

86%

REB

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

79%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

BLK

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

77%

UNDER 0.5

72%

P+R

UNDER 25.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

R+A

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.9

7.1

RPG

8.5

7.2

APG

0.9

0.7

vs IND (H2H)8 games

PPG

16.1

RPG

11.4

APG

1.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mark Williams	4	21	83%	+15.9%	medium
Rudy Gobert	3	20	50%	-17.4%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	3	14	75%	+7.6%	medium
Alperen Sengun	2	14	90%

Ayton’s projection leans low despite solid rebound floor

Deandre Ayton’s season line is 12.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 0.9 assists, but his recent scoring has softened to 10.2 PPG over the last 5 and 10.3 over the last 10. His rebounding has stayed steadier at 8.2 RPG in both the last 5 and last 10, while his assist and stocks rates remain modest. The matchup environment is not especially inviting given Indiana’s 120.51 defensive rating and 100 pace, and his injury status is listed as Out with an injury/illness-back designation, which makes any active-game projection highly uncertain. There is also no specific defender matchup data to lean on beyond the listed key defenders.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.2(↓ from 12.5)

RPG

8.2(→ from 8.4)

APG

0.6(↓ from 0.9)

Stocks

1.2(↓ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Indiana’s team defensive rating is 120.51 with a 100 pace, which does not create a strong offensive environment for overs. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the analysis leans on team-level context and Ayton’s own recent production.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution
Deandre Ayton▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	1/2	90%
Deandre Ayton▼	Rebounds	9.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Deandre Ayton▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	—	70%
Deandre Ayton▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%
Deandre Ayton▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	77%HIGH	—	80%
Deandre Ayton▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	—	—
Deandre Ayton▼	P+R	25.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	80%
Deandre Ayton▼	R+A	10.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/1942%▼

PTS10.5UNDER26%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)10/1953%▼

REB6.5UNDER15%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x13/1968%▼

PRA20UNDER31%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/1942%▼

P+A12OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)10/1953%▼

FTM1UNDER28%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/1942%▼

FTA2UNDER11%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/1942%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/1953%▼

Featured Pick

Deandre Ayton

Points UNDER 16.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because his season average is 12.5 PPG and his last 5 are only 10.2. The current Out designation on his injury status further reinforces the under and makes the over extremely difficult to support.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

pointsUNDER 16.586%HIGH

His season scoring average is 12.5 PPG and the last 5 are even lower at 10.2. With the player listed as Out and recent form below the market line, the under is the clear lean.

reboundsUNDER 9.568%MEDIUM

Ayton averages 8.4 RPG on the season and 8.2 RPG over the last 5, both below 9.5. His rebound profile is steadier than scoring, but the current status still makes the over hard to justify.

assistsUNDER 1.579%HIGH

He averages just 0.9 APG on the season and 0.6 APG over the last 5. This is well below the line, and his assist role has remained minimal.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.48 and recent mean is 1.0, both below a 1.5 target. With moderate variance, the under is slightly safer than chasing an over.

blocksUNDER 1.577%HIGH

Ayton averages 0.9 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, far below 1.5. The under aligns with both season and recent production.

double_doubleUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He has double-double potential, but his points have been volatile and his current injury status makes a DD unlikely. The market would need a strong minutes and usage setup, which is not supported here.

prUNDER 25.574%HIGH

His season points plus rebounds average is 20.9, and the last 5 combined average is 18.4. Combo props add variance, and this line sits well above both baselines.

raUNDER 10.566%MEDIUM

He averages 8.4 rebounds plus 0.9 assists for 9.3 RA on the season, below 10.5. Recent form is similar at 8.8 RA over the last 5.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS