AI Model:

Jake LaRavia▼

LAL · SF

PPG

8.5

RPG

3.8

APG

1.8

L5 PPG

4.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.7

8.5

4.8

RPG-0.8

3.8

3.0

APG-1.0

1.8

0.8

SPG-0.1

1.1

1.0

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

IND

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs IND: 8 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 8 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 0 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 4 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 7 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 5 pts

MIA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIA: 5 pts

ORL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ORL: 0 pts

DET

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs DET: 7 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

80%

AST

OVER 1.5BETONLINEAG

55%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

77%

STL

UNDER 1.5

68%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

UNDER 2

70%

P+A

UNDER 10.5STAKE

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.5

6.5

RPG

3.1

APG

1.7

1.1

vs IND (H2H)4 games

PPG

6.0

RPG

1.5

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kawhi Leonard	4	15	50%	-4.9%	medium
Kon Knueppel	2	10	100%	+20.9%	low
Trey Murphy III	3	9	88%	+29.2%	medium
Devin Vassell	3	8	30%

LaRavia’s minutes and scoring have cooled, and the under profiles best

Jake LaRavia has been trending down, with his last-5 scoring at 4.8 PPG versus a season mark of 8.5 PPG, and his minutes have dropped to 16.6 MPG over that span from 24.7 MPG on the season. His recent production also shows limited passing volume, with just 0.8 APG in the last 5 and 1.5 APG over the last 10. Against Indiana, his prior head-to-head sample is modest at 6.0 PPG and 2.0 APG in 14.25 MPG, which supports a cautious projection rather than an upside chase.

Stat Trends

PPG

4.8(↓ from 8.5)

RPG

3.0(↓ from 3.8)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

Indiana’s opponent defense data shows a 120.51 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 1.144, which leans against ceiling outcomes. There is also specific defender matchup data listed, but the sample minutes are small; no specific defender matchup data is strong enough here to override the recent role decline.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jake LaRavia▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	100%	6	✓
Jake LaRavia▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	1/2	80%	5	✗
Jake LaRavia▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✗
Jake LaRavia▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	77%HIGH	—	100%	0	✓
Jake LaRavia▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	80%	4	✗
Jake LaRavia▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Jake LaRavia▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	70%	5	✗
Jake LaRavia▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	90%	3	✗
Jake LaRavia▼	P+A	10.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	7	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11.5UNDER34%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)3/2015%+35.5% edge▼

REB5.5UNDER40%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)5/2025%+17.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R10UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

PRA19.5UNDER46%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)3/2015%+31.3% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

AST2.5UNDER69%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 12x4/2020%+26.3% edge▼

P+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

R+A5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Jake LaRavia

Rebounds UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board: he is at 3.8 RPG for the season and 3.2 RPG over the last 10, with a projected under probability of 0.671 and a 17.1% edge. The recent minute drop to 16.6 MPG makes reaching 5 rebounds even less likely.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Pascal Siakam	2	5	13	45%	50%
Jarace Walker	2	2	0	0%	0%
Ben Sheppard	2	2	3	33%	50%
Andrew Nembhard	2	2	5	50%	75%
Jay Huff	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 9.572%HIGH

Season scoring is 8.5 PPG, but recent form is only 4.8 PPG and his minutes have fallen to 16.6 MPG over the last 5. The model data also shows a best-side UNDER at 9.5 with 0.593 implied under probability.

reboundsUNDER 4.580%HIGH

He averages 3.8 RPG on the season and 3.2 RPG over the last 10, both below this line. The value data is strongest here, with a 17.1% edge and 0.671 projected probability for the under.

assistsOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.83 APG and the recent mean is 1.5 APG, so this is close to a coin flip but slightly above the line. The provided value data shows a small 4.3% edge to the over, so confidence stays modest.

threesUNDER 1.577%HIGH

He averages 0.97 threes per game on the season and only 0.3 over the last 10, with recent usage dropping. That makes 2+ made threes a tough ask despite the starting role.

stealsUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

Season steals are 1.1 per game, but the line is elevated at 1.5 and his last-10 average is only 0.7. The variance is meaningful, but the lower recent production supports the under.

blocksUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 BPG on the season and 0.3 over the last 10, so he is not a strong block prop candidate. At 0.5, the under is the safer side.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.52, but his recent and last-10 production has slipped to 1.0 and 0.8. That recent dip makes the over less attractive at this number.

turnoversUNDER 270%HIGH

His recent turnover rate is low at 0.6 per game, and he has not shown high-usage ballhandling volume. With limited playmaking responsibility, the under is the better lean.

paUNDER 10.561%MEDIUM

His season scoring plus assists totals 10.3 using the provided season means, and recent form is even lower. Combo props carry more variance, so this stays a moderate-confidence under.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS