AI Model:

Chet Holmgren▼

OKC · PF

PPG

17.2

RPG

9.0

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

17.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.2

17.2

17.4

RPG-0.6

9.0

8.4

APG-0.1

1.7

1.6

SPG+0.3

0.5

0.8

BPG+0.1

1.9

2.0

OVER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

16.5

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 19 pts

CHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHI: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 28 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 14 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 21 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BKN: 11 pts

WAS

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs WAS: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs PHI: 17 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 16.5STAKE

58%

REB

OVER 8.5STAKE

61%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

52%

3PM

UNDER 1.5STAKE

56%

BLK

OVER 1.5STAKE

60%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

57%

P+R

UNDER 27.5STAKE

55%

P+A

UNDER 17.5STAKE

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.4

15.6

RPG

12.2

7.8

APG

2.0

1.8

vs BOS (H2H)4 games

PPG

15.5

RPG

8.5

APG

2.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mark Williams	4	18	45%	-9.8%	medium
Alperen Sengun	3	17	42%	-13.2%	medium
Harrison Barnes	4	16	44%	-11.6%	medium
Bam Adebayo	2	14	59%

Holmgren's rebounding is the cleanest angle; scoring is more volatile

Chet Holmgren is averaging 17.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks on 29.3 MPG this season, with recent production staying close to that level at 17.5 points and 10.0 rebounds over his last 10. His trend is marked down, and his last 20 points average of 15.9 is below the season mark, which makes the higher scoring lines less appealing. The matchup context is mixed: Boston has a 106.96 defensive rating with a pace of 100, and Holmgren has averaged 15.5 points and 8.5 rebounds in 4 games vs this opponent. Rebounding remains his strongest path to clearing a prop, while points and combo props carry more variance.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.4(→ from 17.2)

RPG

8.4(↓ from 9.0)

BPG

2.0(→ from 1.9)

Stocks

2.8(↑ from 2.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key_defenders. Boston's opponent defense shows a 106.96 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -1.903 scoring suppression, which points to a tougher environment than a typical high-pace scoring spot.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Chet Holmgren▼	Points	16.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		10	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	Rebounds	8.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	FLIP	5	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		0	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		1	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	Blocks	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		0	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	FLIP	0	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	P+R	27.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	26.5→27.5	15	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	30%		10	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5UNDER53%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

P+A17.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

PRA24.5UNDER0%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%▼

BLK1.5UNDER41%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

P+R24.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

3PM1.5UNDER45%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)4/2020%+10.6% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

REB8.5UNDER34%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%▼

Featured Pick

Chet Holmgren

Rebounds OVER 8.5MEDIUM

This is the clearest number against his production profile: 9.0 rebounds per game on the season, 10.0 over his last 10, and 10.03 at home. The 8.5 line is also supported by his 4-game average of 8.5 vs Boston, making it a stronger play than the points market.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Neemias Queta	2	8	4	50%	50%
Luka Garza	2	5	5	50%	63%
Sam Hauser	2	4	6	33%	50%
Baylor Scheierman	2	1	3	100%	150%
Jaylen Brown	2	1	6	38%	38%

pointsOVER 16.558%MEDIUM

He is averaging 17.2 points for the season and 17.4 over his last 5, which is above this line. Still, the season-long trend is down and Boston has a 106.96 defensive rating with 100 pace, so the edge is not strong.

reboundsOVER 8.561%MEDIUM

His season rebound average is 9.0 and his last 10 is 10.0, both above 8.5. He also averaged 8.5 rebounds in 4 games vs Boston, but his home split of 12.2 RPG and season minutes support this line more than the points prop.

assistsOVER 1.552%MEDIUM

He averages 1.7 assists on the season and 1.6 over his last 5, so 1.5 is reachable. The category has modest volume and higher variance, so confidence stays limited.

threesUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.24 threes per game on the season and 1.3 over the last 10, which is below 1.5. Recent game logs show multiple zero-make outings, and the standard deviation on threes is high at 1.33.

blocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

Holmgren averages 1.9 blocks this season and 2.0 over his last 5, so 1.5 is a favorable number. The role and recent form both support him getting multiple blocks again.

stocksOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.45 and his last 5 is 2.8, essentially right around this range. This is a volatile category, but the recent defensive production makes it playable.

prUNDER 27.555%MEDIUM

His season P+R profile is 26.24 using 17.2 points and 9.0 rebounds, while his last 10 would still project only modestly above this line. With combo props carrying added variance, the under is slightly safer.

paUNDER 17.559%MEDIUM

He averages only 1.7 assists, so this line depends almost entirely on scoring. Against Boston he has averaged 15.5 points and 2.75 assists in 4 games, leaving limited cushion for the over.

timelineOVER 16.5 PTS