AI Model:

Isaiah Hartenstein▲

OKC · C

PPG

9.7

RPG

9.6

APG

3.8

L5 PPG

3.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-5.9

9.7

3.8

RPG+1.6

9.6

11.2

APG+1.8

3.8

5.6

SPG-0.4

1.0

0.6

BPG0.0

0.8

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

7.5

BKN

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs BKN: 10 pts

CLE

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs CLE: 13 pts

TOR

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs TOR: 11 pts

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 9 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 7 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 0 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 0 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 0 pts

WAS

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs WAS: 9 pts

PHI

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs PHI: 10 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5STAKE

61%

REB

OVER 7.5STAKE

68%

AST

OVER 3.5

63%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

OVER 1.5

55%

P+R

OVER 15.5STAKE

58%

P+A

OVER 10.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.2

6.6

RPG

8.5

8.6

APG

5.4

3.7

vs BOS (H2H)13 games

PPG

5.9

RPG

7.0

APG

2.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Rudy Gobert	3	18	43%	-19.2%	medium
Luke Kornet	3	16	75%	+12.9%	medium
Deandre Ayton	3	15	57%	-5.0%	medium
Drew Eubanks	3	14	50%

Rebounds and assists remain the safest Hartenstein angles

Isaiah Hartenstein’s season line is strong at 9.7 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists in 25.1 MPG, but his last 5 show a clear scoring dip to 3.8 PPG while his playmaking and glass work stay active at 5.6 APG and 11.2 RPG. The recent form suggests his scoring is volatile, while rebounds and assists have held up better, especially with his last 10 at 9.3 RPG and 4.5 APG. Boston’s opponent profile is not especially friendly for ceiling outcomes, and his historical numbers vs this opponent are lower at 5.9 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 2.23 APG across 13 games. With his recent minutes down to 22.7 and no injury issue, the best projection leans toward rebounds and assists over points.

Stat Trends

PPG

3.8(↓ from 9.7)

RPG

11.2(↑ from 9.6)

APG

5.6(↑ from 3.8)

Key Matchup

Key defender data is limited, and Boston’s opponent profile shows a 106.96 defensive rating with 100 pace and scoring suppression of -1.903. There is some matchup context from the listed defenders, but the available data does not support a specific defender takeaway beyond no clear favorable edge on scoring volume.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		6	✓
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		5	✗
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2.5→3.5	2	✗
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%		3	✓
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%		0	✗
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%		3	✓
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	—	0	✗
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	P+R	15.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	FLIP	11	✗
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	P+A	10.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	—	8	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS7.5UNDER14%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

AST3.5OVER8%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x11/2055%+6.2% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.187▼

PRA18.5OVER24%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.158▼

R+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+A11.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

REB8.5UNDER42%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+R16OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Isaiah Hartenstein

Rebounds OVER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest play because his season average is 9.6 rebounds, his last 10 are 9.3, and his last 5 are 11.2. The value data also shows multiple positive-edge entries on rebounds, including a 10.6% edge at 7.5 and a 13% edge at 9.5, making rebounds the strongest overall angle.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Neemias Queta	1	6	8	80%	80%
Jayson Tatum	1	1	2	33%	33%
Luka Garza	1	1	2	100%	100%
Jaylen Brown	1	1	0	0%	0%
Derrick White	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 7.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 9.7 PPG, but the last 5 are only 3.8 and his vs-opponent mark is 5.9 PPG across 13 games. With recent minutes at 22.7 and scoring volatility reflected by a 5.96 season standard deviation, the under is the safer side.

reboundsOVER 7.568%MEDIUM

He averages 9.6 RPG on the season, 9.3 over the last 10, and 11.2 over the last 5, with a home split of 8.5 and away split of 8.6 still comfortably above this line. Value data also points to OVER at 7.5 with positive edge across multiple books.

assistsOVER 3.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 3.8 APG, last 10 is 4.5, and last 5 is 5.6, while the home split is 5.4 APG. The assist prop is supported by multiple +EV value entries at 3.5 and his role has recently trended upward as a facilitator.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 SPG on the season and 0.8 over the last 10, so clearing 0.5 is well within his normal production. Recent stocks remain solid at 2.0 over the last 10, though the variance keeps confidence moderate.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 BPG on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, which supports an over on a 0.5 line. His recent blocks production remains live despite some low-minute scoring games.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.78 and last 10 is 2.0, both above 1.5. Because the category combines steals and blocks, variance is higher, so the confidence stays moderate.

turnoversOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He is at 1.6 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 1.6 over the last 20, with 1.8 in away games. If this market is posted near 1.5, the over is viable, but the line source is projected because no sportsbook line was provided.

prOVER 15.558%MEDIUM

He averages 9.7 points and 9.6 rebounds, so 15.5 PR is reachable if rebounds hold near his recent levels. The combo carries extra variance, so confidence is kept conservative.

paOVER 10.560%MEDIUM

His season average of 3.8 APG paired with a 9.7 PPG baseline gives him a workable path over 10.5 if he gets normal usage. Recent assists are strong, but the scoring dip makes this less stable than rebounds.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS