AI Model:

Jalen Williams▲

OKC · SF

PPG

17.5

RPG

4.6

APG

5.4

L5 PPG

16.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.9

17.5

16.6

RPG-0.8

4.6

3.8

APG-0.4

5.4

5.0

SPG-1.0

1.2

0.2

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

17.5

CHA

2026-01-05

2026-01-05 vs CHA: 16 pts

UTA

2026-01-07

2026-01-07 vs UTA: 17 pts

MEM

2026-01-09

2026-01-09 vs MEM: 26 pts

MIA

2026-01-11

2026-01-11 vs MIA: 18 pts

SAS

2026-01-13

2026-01-13 vs SAS: 20 pts

HOU

2026-01-15

2026-01-15 vs HOU: 6 pts

MIA

2026-01-17

2026-01-17 vs MIA: 8 pts

LAL

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs LAL: 23 pts

PHX

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs PHX: 28 pts

PHI

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs PHI: 18 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 17.5STAKE

62%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

70%

AST

UNDER 5.5STAKE

57%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

73%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

82%

3PM

OVER 0.5STAKE

52%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

65%

OVER 2

54%

P+A

UNDER 23.5STAKE

58%

P+R

UNDER 23.5STAKE

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.4

17.8

RPG

4.0

4.7

APG

5.2

5.4

vs BOS (H2H)4 games

PPG

15.3

RPG

4.0

APG

3.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Dillon Brooks	4	13	50%	-2.0%	medium
Victor Wembanyama	4	12	50%	+1.8%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	11	110%	+31.8%	medium
Stephon Castle	4	10	90%

Jalen Williams brings a stable all-around floor, but scoring efficiency is the swing factor

Jalen Williams is sitting at 17.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 5.4 APG on the season, with his last 10 games very close to those marks at 18.0, 3.6, and 5.4. His recent workload is slightly lighter, with 27.3 MPG over the last 10 and 21.8 MPG over the last 5, which tempers upside even though his season trend is listed as up. Boston’s profile is not especially fast, and his 4-game history vs this opponent has been lower at 15.25 PPG and 3.5 APG, so the matchup leans more toward controlled production than a ceiling night.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.6(↓ from 17.5)

RPG

3.8(↓ from 4.6)

APG

5.0(↓ from 5.4)

Key Matchup

He has 4 games vs this opponent with averages of 15.25 PPG, 4 RPG, and 3.5 APG, which is below his season production. The provided defender data is not enough to isolate a single defender edge, so this is a no specific defender matchup data spot with Boston overall appearing to limit his scoring ceiling.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Williams▼	Points	17.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	7	✓
Jalen Williams▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	90%	3	✓
Jalen Williams▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✓
Jalen Williams▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	70%	0	✓
Jalen Williams▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Jalen Williams▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Jalen Williams▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Jalen Williams▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Jalen Williams▼	P+A	23.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	10	✓
Jalen Williams▼	P+R	23.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	10	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A22OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A10UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

P+R21OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Williams

Blocks UNDER 0.5HIGH

This is his clearest edge based on the data: 0.3 blocks per game on the season and just 0.2 over the last 5. A 0.5 line is well above his normal block production, making the under the strongest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jayson Tatum	1	5	8	100%	133%
Jaylen Brown	1	1	2	25%	25%
Neemias Queta	1	1	0	0%	0%
Baylor Scheierman	1	1	2	100%	100%
Derrick White	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 17.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is exactly 17.52, while the last 5 is lower at 16.6 and he has averaged 15.25 PPG in 4 games vs this opponent. With recent minutes down to 21.8 MPG in the last 5 and Boston suppressing scoring, the under is slightly safer.

reboundsUNDER 5.570%HIGH

He averages 4.63 rebounds on the season and only 3.8 over the last 5, so 5.5 is above his typical output. The recent and season data both point to a sub-6 rebound game.

assistsUNDER 5.557%MEDIUM

His season average is 5.44 APG and last 5 is 5.0, so 5.5 sits just above his baseline. The 2.36 season standard deviation and 2.91 recent standard deviation add some volatility, but the under remains the lean.

stealsUNDER 1.573%HIGH

He averages 1.2 steals on the season, but just 0.2 over the last 5 and 0.8 over the last 10. At a 1.5 line, the recent form strongly favors the under.

blocksUNDER 0.582%HIGH

He averages only 0.3 blocks on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. A 0.5 line is high relative to his block profile.

threesOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 0.78 made threes per game on the season and 0.7 over the last 5, so clearing 0.5 is reasonable. The confidence is limited because his three-point volume and make rate are modest.

stocksUNDER 1.565%MEDIUM

His season average for stocks is 1.56, but the last 5 is only 0.4 and the last 10 is 1.0. The recent dip makes 1.5 a tough number to clear.

turnoversOVER 254%MEDIUM

He is at 2.1 turnovers in both the home and away splits and 2.1 over the last 20. That makes 2.0 a reasonable over target despite some game-to-game variance.

paUNDER 23.558%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists output is 22.9 using the provided season means, and his recent scoring has softened. Because combo props add variance, the under is the safer lean.

prUNDER 23.563%MEDIUM

Combining his 17.5 points with 4.6 rebounds gives a baseline below 23.5, and both categories are trending slightly down lately. This is a conservative under in a combo market.

timelineUNDER 17.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Jalen Williams brings a stable all-around floor, but scoring efficiency is the swing factor

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 17.5 PTS