AI Model:

Jaylen Brown—

BOS · SG

PPG

28.5

RPG

7.0

APG

5.1

L5 PPG

29.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.1

28.5

29.6

RPG-1.0

7.0

6.0

APG-0.3

5.1

4.8

SPG-0.2

1.0

0.8

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 29.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

29.5

CHA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs CHA: 20 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 24 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 23 pts

SAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAS: 8 pts

OKC

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs OKC: 34 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 16 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 41 pts

GSW

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs GSW: 32 pts

MEM

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MEM: 30 pts

MIN

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs MIN: 29 pts

Over 29.5

Under 29.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 29.5STAKE

61%

REB

UNDER 7.5STAKE

58%

AST

OVER 4.5STAKE

57%

3PM

UNDER 1.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

55%

UNDER 3.5

59%

PRA

UNDER 42

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

27.2

25.8

RPG

6.9

8.5

APG

5.1

6.8

vs OKC (H2H)10 games

PPG

24.7

RPG

5.2

APG

3.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Noah Clowney	3	17	35%	-17.6%	medium
Kelly Oubre Jr.	4	16	25%	-22.6%	medium
Tobias Harris	4	14	42%	-14.3%	medium
Franz Wagner	3	13	67%

Brown’s scoring form is strong, but the market is asking a lot at 29.5

Jaylen Brown is producing at an elite season level with 28.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 5.1 APG across 64 games, and his recent scoring has stayed high at 29.6 PPG over the last 5. His last 10 games show a slightly cooler scoring baseline at 25.7 PPG, which is below the season mean and suggests some regression from the hot five-game stretch. At home he averages 27.2 PPG, and against Oklahoma City he has 24.7 PPG in 10 games, so this matchup supports a solid night but not necessarily a ceiling game at the current number. The main risk for overs is his recent points variance and the fact that the best available prop line is higher than his value-based range.

Stat Trends

PPG

29.6(↑ from 28.5)

RPG

6.0(↓ from 7.0)

APG

4.8(↓ from 5.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed Oklahoma City defenders. The team context shows a 107.47 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -1.788 scoring suppression, which points to a slightly tougher scoring environment than Brown’s raw season scoring profile.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Jaylen Brown▼	Points	29.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		31	✗
Jaylen Brown▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		8	✗
Jaylen Brown▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		8	✓
Jaylen Brown▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	1	✓
Jaylen Brown▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%		2	✗
Jaylen Brown▼	Turnovers	3.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	60%		5	✗
Jaylen Brown▼	PRA	42	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	—	47	✗

ML Scout Analysis

AST5.5OVER8%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x14/2070%+20.5% edge▼

P+R34.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x12/2060%▼

P+A34OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

PTS27.5UNDER24%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

REB5.5UNDER3%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)16/2080%▼

3PM1.5UNDER8%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

3PA4.5UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA39.5UNDER18%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%▼

FTM8UNDER30%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

STL1.5UNDER45%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

FTA9UNDER3%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jaylen Brown

Points UNDER 29.5MEDIUM

The strongest numerical case is that Brown’s season scoring average is 28.5, his last 10 is 25.7, and his 10-game average vs Oklahoma City is 24.7. Even with strong recent form, the 29.5 line sits above the most relevant baselines, making the under the better value side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	2	8	7	67%	83%
Cason Wallace	2	6	7	38%	44%
Luguentz Dort	2	3	8	43%	57%
Jaylin Williams	2	2	3	100%	150%
Ajay Mitchell	2	2	5	67%	83%

pointsUNDER 29.561%MEDIUM

His season mean is 28.5, but his last 10 is only 25.7 and his head-to-head average vs Oklahoma City is 24.7 PPG across 10 games. The market line at 29.5 is above both his season and matchup baseline, and the recent scoring spike does not fully erase that gap.

reboundsUNDER 7.558%MEDIUM

Brown is at 7.0 RPG for the season and 6.5 over the last 10, both below the 7.5 line. His away split is 8.5 RPG, but this is a home game and his home mean is exactly 6.9.

assistsOVER 4.557%MEDIUM

His season average is 5.1 APG and his last 10 is 6.0, so 4.5 is a modest bar. The home split sits at 5.1 APG and his recent playmaking volume remains strong.

threesUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.94 threes per game on the season, but the last 10 is down to 1.2 and the available value props favor the under at 1.5. The recent dip in three-point volume makes the under the safer side.

stocksUNDER 1.555%MEDIUM

Brown’s season stocks average is 1.39 and his last 10 is 1.1, both below a 1.5 threshold. His defensive production is solid but not consistent enough to trust the over at a higher benchmark.

turnoversUNDER 3.559%MEDIUM

He has been around 3.2 to 3.5 turnovers in recent sample windows, but a projected 3.5 line still leaves room for the under. The recent 3.4 and 3.5 turnover rates suggest the number is fair, with slight lean to the under if priced conservatively.

praUNDER 4254%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 40.6 using the provided averages, and his last 10 form is 38.2. Combo props carry added variance, so the under is the conservative lean if the line settles around 42.0.

timelineUNDER 29.5 PTS