Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Clowney | 3 | 17 | 35% | -17.6% | medium |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 4 | 16 | 25% | -22.6% | medium |
| Tobias Harris | 4 | 14 | 42% | -14.3% | medium |
| Franz Wagner | 3 | 13 | 67% |
Jaylen Brown is producing at an elite season level with 28.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 5.1 APG across 64 games, and his recent scoring has stayed high at 29.6 PPG over the last 5. His last 10 games show a slightly cooler scoring baseline at 25.7 PPG, which is below the season mean and suggests some regression from the hot five-game stretch. At home he averages 27.2 PPG, and against Oklahoma City he has 24.7 PPG in 10 games, so this matchup supports a solid night but not necessarily a ceiling game at the current number. The main risk for overs is his recent points variance and the fact that the best available prop line is higher than his value-based range.
No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed Oklahoma City defenders. The team context shows a 107.47 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -1.788 scoring suppression, which points to a slightly tougher scoring environment than Brown’s raw season scoring profile.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Evolution | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaylen Brown▼ | Points | 29.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 31 | ✗ | |
Jaylen Brown▼ | Rebounds | 7.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 8 | ✗ | |
Jaylen Brown▼ | Assists | 4.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 8 | ✓ | |
Jaylen Brown▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | FLIP | 1 | ✓ |
Jaylen Brown▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 2 | ✗ | |
Jaylen Brown▼ | Turnovers | 3.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 5 | ✗ | |
Jaylen Brown▼ | PRA | 42 | UNDER | 54%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | — | 47 | ✗ |
The strongest numerical case is that Brown’s season scoring average is 28.5, his last 10 is 25.7, and his 10-game average vs Oklahoma City is 24.7. Even with strong recent form, the 29.5 line sits above the most relevant baselines, making the under the better value side.
| medium |
| De'Andre Hunter | 2 | 12 | 30% | -27.6% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 2 | 8 | 7 | 67% | 83% |
| Cason Wallace | 2 | 6 | 7 | 38% | 44% |
| Luguentz Dort | 2 | 3 | 8 | 43% | 57% |
| Jaylin Williams | 2 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 150% |
| Ajay Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 5 | 67% | 83% |
His season mean is 28.5, but his last 10 is only 25.7 and his head-to-head average vs Oklahoma City is 24.7 PPG across 10 games. The market line at 29.5 is above both his season and matchup baseline, and the recent scoring spike does not fully erase that gap.
Brown is at 7.0 RPG for the season and 6.5 over the last 10, both below the 7.5 line. His away split is 8.5 RPG, but this is a home game and his home mean is exactly 6.9.
His season average is 5.1 APG and his last 10 is 6.0, so 4.5 is a modest bar. The home split sits at 5.1 APG and his recent playmaking volume remains strong.
He averages 1.94 threes per game on the season, but the last 10 is down to 1.2 and the available value props favor the under at 1.5. The recent dip in three-point volume makes the under the safer side.
Brown’s season stocks average is 1.39 and his last 10 is 1.1, both below a 1.5 threshold. His defensive production is solid but not consistent enough to trust the over at a higher benchmark.
He has been around 3.2 to 3.5 turnovers in recent sample windows, but a projected 3.5 line still leaves room for the under. The recent 3.4 and 3.5 turnover rates suggest the number is fair, with slight lean to the under if priced conservatively.
His season PRA is 40.6 using the provided averages, and his last 10 form is 38.2. Combo props carry added variance, so the under is the conservative lean if the line settles around 42.0.